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12-27-2018, 02:27 PM
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#181
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,702
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My neck is sore from watching the wild swings today. Down 600 intraday and closing up 250. Madness. I don't generally watch, but peaked in at things during breaks from working on my garden.
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I vote to call it a Bear Market!
12-27-2018, 02:39 PM
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#182
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,972
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I vote to call it a Bear Market!
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras
My neck is sore from watching the wild swings today. Down 600 intraday and closing up 250. Madness. I don't generally watch, but peaked in at things during breaks from working on my garden.
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Lol. I saw that .. down 600 red .. then last 15-30 minutes went 200+ green .. low volume trades push it to green. Was that the Plunge Protection Team at work ?[emoji12]
__________________
No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
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12-27-2018, 03:23 PM
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#183
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Portland
Posts: 1,713
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12-27-2018, 03:35 PM
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#184
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras
My neck is sore from watching the wild swings today. Down 600 intraday and closing up 250. Madness. I don't generally watch, but peaked in at things during breaks from working on my garden.
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I watched the market a bit in the morning, wrote 3 out-of-the-money covered calls on some stocks that were green while the market was red. Then, got tired of seeing everything going down, so went out to the backyard to do some work.
Needed to run to Home Depot for some "stuff". Stopped by my laptop to check on the market about 1/2 hour before close. Nice!
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
Lol. I saw that .. down 600 red .. then last 15-30 minutes went 200+ green .. low volume trades push it to green. Was that the Plunge Protection Team at work ?[emoji12]
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The market declined until 1.5 hrs before close, then it started to turn around.
Total volume of the day was indeed lower than the daily average, but most of the trades were during the last hour and trading stayed heavy until close.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-27-2018, 03:46 PM
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#185
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,719
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The "Day" traders are taking advantage of the swings.
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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12-27-2018, 04:03 PM
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#186
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Well, I do not care who is buying, as long as there's somebody buying, and buys a lot.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-27-2018, 06:34 PM
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#187
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,298
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider
The "Day" traders are taking advantage of the swings.
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The Wall Street hedge fund firms who have "Program trading" algorithms set up, are probably cleaning up.
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TGIM
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12-28-2018, 08:53 PM
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#188
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: West Burbs of Chicago
Posts: 19
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-1. Not yet!!!
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12-29-2018, 06:47 AM
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#189
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 22
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-1 Reminds me of when the wife waits for a Kohl's sale, and she has a handful of % off stackable coupons, and Kohl's cash. Buying along the way.
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12-29-2018, 06:50 AM
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#190
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,622
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scarab
-1 Reminds me of when the wife waits for a Kohl's sale, and she has a handful of % off stackable coupons, and Kohl's cash. Buying along the way.
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That Kohl's cash has cost us more money than it ever saved.
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
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12-29-2018, 06:55 AM
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#191
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Khol's Cash = thinly disguised Crack Cocaine
__________________
Numbers is hard
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12-29-2018, 07:00 AM
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#192
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,622
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__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
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12-29-2018, 07:10 AM
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#193
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 22
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12-29-2018, 08:13 AM
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#194
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I am proud of my wife. She went in, found something that she liked and her receipt showed excess of $1 or $2 above that free cash.
I was there with her, and it made me feel guilty. But I think they figure it out, and I have not seen a coupon in the mail recently.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-29-2018, 08:27 AM
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#195
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 1,405
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Just looking at indexes, not counting dividends, the market had finally recovered in Oct 2007, just in time for the next bear!
But if you count in dividends, that shortens it. But when you take into account inflation, its drain is worse than the gains from dividends. They very roughly cancel each other out. Accounting for inflation and dividends the 2000 bear market never recovered and continued into the 2007 bear market, taking another 5 years or more to completely recover.
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A few years back, I read an article that said the Fed's various QE policies to drive down rates essentially amounted to price fixing the most important financial assets on the planet -- US Treasury bonds -- because virtually everything else finds its value as a risk premium relative to that risk-free return.
The fed used its limitless balance sheet to wrestle control away from the market on the price of treasuries and thereby removed from the market a very important pricing mechanism for everything else. Obviously, the fed always nudges these things via its rate actions, but QE was an entirely different beast.
I found that to be an interesting way of looking at it.
If you concur that's what happened, we should be prepared for a very out-of-the-ordinary market (up/down) as the Fed unwinds QE and allows the market to once again have more of a voice in setting the price of Treasuries and other assets. It took a decade (perhaps 2 decades to Audrey's point) in order to get here. The odds that this gets unwound in 36 months is shockingly low.
__________________
Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity.
FIRE'd 1/1/24
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12-29-2018, 08:42 AM
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#196
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 20
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Agreed. I too doubt the Fed will unwind their balance sheet anytime soon. As soon as there is a hint of an economic slowdown, I believe they will stop and, depending upon the slowdown's severity, increase their holdings again.
Does anyone know how the US Fed's holdings compare to the ECB's, particularly as a % of GDP?
__________________
And they ask me why I drink . . . .
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12-29-2018, 09:37 AM
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#197
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Closet_Gamer
A few years back, I read an article that said the Fed's various QE policies to drive down rates essentially amounted to price fixing the most important financial assets on the planet -- US Treasury bonds -- because virtually everything else finds its value as a risk premium relative to that risk-free return.
The fed used its limitless balance sheet to wrestle control away from the market on the price of treasuries and thereby removed from the market a very important pricing mechanism for everything else. Obviously, the fed always nudges these things via its rate actions, but QE was an entirely different beast.
I found that to be an interesting way of looking at it.
If you concur that's what happened, we should be prepared for a very out-of-the-ordinary market (up/down) as the Fed unwinds QE and allows the market to once again have more of a voice in setting the price of Treasuries and other assets. It took a decade (perhaps 2 decades to Audrey's point) in order to get here. The odds that this gets unwound in 36 months is shockingly low.
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Well the QE that’s unwinding now was started in 2013, so it really hasn’t been that long. Plus the asset inflation that happened as a result also occurred in 2013 onwards. Unwind a few years gains and/or go sideways for a few years and we are probably back on track. Having interest rates at higher levels is a big part forcing return to less inflated asset levels.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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12-29-2018, 09:53 AM
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#198
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Olympia
Posts: 150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I changed my avatar when I saw this thread. Maybe this is a "Teddy Bear Market"? At least, so far. I agree with others that it's probably not a full fledged Bear Market quite yet.
TBH I expect it to get much worse before long, but then what do I know about it?
(answer: absolutely nothing).
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I agree
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12-29-2018, 10:03 AM
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#199
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,225
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This bear may be more applicable than a Teddy bear.
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12-29-2018, 11:12 AM
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#200
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,882
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Quote:
Originally Posted by El Magnifico Loco
Agreed. I too doubt the Fed will unwind their balance sheet anytime soon. As soon as there is a hint of an economic slowdown, I believe they will stop and, depending upon the slowdown's severity, increase their holdings again.
Does anyone know how the US Fed's holdings compare to the ECB's, particularly as a % of GDP?
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US Fed balance sheet is basically $4T and falling on a GDP of $19.8T. ECB balance sheet is euro4.5T and rising on euro16.4T of GDP.
That's on a quick couple of google searches, so the recency and quality of the data points may vary.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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