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Old 03-31-2020, 04:40 PM   #21
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And just how do you know this? Do you have one of those mythical crystal balls that I keep hearing about?
Do you really think institutional investors with billion of dollars would get in when the market is calm or when there is blood on the streets ?
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Old 03-31-2020, 04:53 PM   #22
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I understand Brokrken's opinion which is: "My only point is that if you plan to buy back in, why not just wait it out. Timing the market rarely works out well. There have been plenty of articles written about the global financial crisis and how much money you would have lost if you only missed the best 5 or 10 days of the recovery."

I have long thought this way. But my wife and I face retirement in May one of three scenarios would occur: 1) lose a lot of $ in the market this year thereby risking near-term retirement ; 2) a safe well funded more conservative/moderate retirement; or 3) attempt fat-fire moving to a very expensive/posh area.

With the market dropping we figured we better ensure retirement type #2 and admit retirement type #3 most likely an unrealistic reach at this point. #1 situation- potentially having to continue working because we lost too much $ is to horrible to think about.

Still could get back into the market. Who knows, it may work out well. Otherwise eventually getting back in to market helps hedge against inflation- hopefully. But I realize we will probably miss biggest gains. We rather miss the biggest gains but not have to work any longer vs potentially losing a lot, with potentially a slow market recovery, and having to work or forever or have a skinny retirement.

Hopefully this point of view makes sense.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:03 PM   #23
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Makes perfect sense. At least to me. Good luck!
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:14 PM   #24
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I can't predict for the OP what the correct AA is for their retirement.

I hope it works out for you.

Once I went into retirement I wanted an AA that allowed me minimal adjustments (i.e. wanted to sleep well at night). I thought 40/60 was that AA.

I have been somewhat concerned about the bond portion as it was a little rocky until the Fed stated it would also buy corporate bonds back as well if needed. So that has stabilized that market, somewhat. I believe that is why several have moved to cash as well.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:20 PM   #25
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I'm pretty much out of the market. ... I understand this goes against all recommendations but I just can't get past the feeling that the bottom hasn't even come close yet. I don't want to be alarmist, but I seriously think we're in 1929 right now. I'm not willing to tuff out a 50% drop from here.

Just a few things that took me over the edge:
- How easily the gov't threw $2T at the problem compounding or national debt with little more than a few weeks of discussion.
- The unemployment rate, which I think will be higher than the depression, just maybe not for as long.
- There are companies that will either go under (stock to $0) or be bailed out and controlled by the gov't.
- First quarter earnings are going to be coming out in April. I think it will be brutal and I don't see the 2nd or 3rd quarter getting much better.

The optimist in me does see better times ahead so now my goal is to find products that are responsive to a few things. One - I think I'm going to need some inflation protection that provides some income. That may be as simple as cash. Not sure yet. Second - I'll be on the lookout for good companies or segments of certain industries to get back in with. For example, I don't see touching a travel/hospitality/restaurant stock any time soon but healthcare may still be strong. We'll see.

Right now, I came to basically the same conclusion and Mountain skier:
+1 that is right where I am right now... there is too much smoke in the air to see anything clearly... the prospect of 100,000 - 240,000 deaths in the US with the interventions is truly stunning.

I do believe in American business and will get back in once the smoke clears.... but perhaps not direct equity investment for a while... likely investments with more limited downside like LEAPS calls.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:31 PM   #26
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+1 that is right where I am right now... there is too much smoke in the air to see anything clearly... the prospect of 100,000 - 240,000 deaths in the US with the interventions is truly stunning.

I do believe in American business and will get back in once the smoke clears.... but perhaps not direct equity investment for a while... likely investments with more limited downside like LEAPS calls.
So did you sell all your equities and go cash to wait until the market calm down to buy it back ?
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:37 PM   #27
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+1 that is right where I am right now... there is too much smoke in the air to see anything clearly... the prospect of 100,000 - 240,000 deaths in the US with the interventions is truly stunning.

I do believe in American business and will get back in once the smoke clears.... but perhaps not direct equity investment for a while... likely investments with more limited downside like LEAPS calls.

What type of investment returns do you anticipate using this strategy long term? i.e. 10 years or more.
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Old 03-31-2020, 05:42 PM   #28
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I already had a pretty big cash position.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:12 PM   #29
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So did you sell all your equities and go cash to wait until the market calm down to buy it back ?
On the first part, yes... equities are all gone. Currently 47% CDs, 40% MM, 12% preferreds.

On the buy back part... will do someing but undecided what. May just buy LEAPS calls rathern than equity index ETFs to have stock exposure.

SWAN is looking interesting as an equity substitute but I'm still studying it. May end up value averaging back in at some point.

Only time will tell whether it is a smart move or dumb move.... not looking all so smart so far, but it is real early.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:17 PM   #30
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What type of investment returns do you anticipate using this strategy long term? i.e. 10 years or more.
I'm looking at the Amplify Blackswan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (ticker SWAN). They essentially are a version of what I was thinking of doing... they invest 90% of the fund in US Treasuries and 10% in LEAPS calls. The fund is only a little over a year old but has seemed to generate good returns in the good times and much lower drawdowns during market turmoil. I may start a separate thread on that later.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:22 PM   #31
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On the first part, yes... equities are all gone. Currently 47% CDs, 40% MM, 12% preferreds.

On the buy back part... will do someing but undecided what. May just buy LEAPS calls rathern than equity index ETFs to have stock exposure.

SWAN is looking interesting as an equity substitute but I'm still studying it. May end up value averaging back in at some point.

Only time will tell whether it is a smart move or dumb move.... not looking all so smart so far, but it is real early.
I went the other direction from 60/40 to 96/4 last two weeks. Good luck to you.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:49 PM   #32
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I went the other direction from 60/40 to 96/4 last two weeks. Good luck to you.
That’s a pretty bold move! Good luck to you.
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Old 03-31-2020, 06:59 PM   #33
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I went the other direction from 60/40 to 96/4 last two weeks. Good luck to you.
That Viper must be a twin turbo with all the goodies. You sir, have guts.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:21 PM   #34
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Hope everybody is healthy, safe and following the experts' recommendations.

No right answers here. Everybody is different. And I totally get the OP's situation.

My potential retirement has been all over the place for a variety of reasons: health, job, you name it. Health has recently settled, but now job stuff looks uncertain. It is always something, I suppose. Anyway, the current plan is to retire in 4-5 years, so that is our window. I could be tossed into a different situation any month now for job reasons, however, so we are definitely conservative. I don't take anything for granted.

Before the crisis, we were roughly 60/34/6. We haven't sold anything, and continue to dribble in small amounts monthly as we have always done. In terms of NW, we are basically back where we were this time last year. So after a multi-year bull market, we've given up a small amount of icing over the past month. I view that situation as economically healthy actually -- take some air out of the balloon. Certainly doesn't feel like the Great Depression version 2.0.

We are now roughly 55/38/7. And we are planning on starting to move some of the cash into equities. We're aren't calling the bottom. The market could go down another 20% from here. Who knows? It is cheaper now than it was a few weeks ago, and we have no plans to take the money back out anytime soon.

It always feels like "this time is different" but I don't think it is. It is just the next debacle, and that isn't to make light of those in peril due to the virus. It's a serious situation. Unless I truly had to, however, I would never cash out of a down market. Have a plan and stick with it.

And science will fix this dilemma. And we basically know when that scientific fix is apt to arrive, worst case. I think the 2021 Games in Tokyo are going to be quite the party. And societies will be more resilient post-virus. I also think health care programs will be more forgiving and caring in the United States post-virus. I used to lose sleep over ObamaCare being struck down by the courts and basically replaced with nothing. I don't see that as a credible risk anymore. I think we (in the United States) will now move closer towards either single-payer or Medicare for all. And I think that will alleviate HC concerns for those in the FIRE community.

Again, however, if I knew I was 6 months away from pulling the trigger, I might have a different take. So none of this is criticism of the OP. I just feel good about the future. And we certainly aren't cashing out.

Stay safe everyone.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:36 PM   #35
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I understand Brokrken's opinion which is: "My only point is that if you plan to buy back in, why not just wait it out. Timing the market rarely works out well. There have been plenty of articles written about the global financial crisis and how much money you would have lost if you only missed the best 5 or 10 days of the recovery."

I have long thought this way. But my wife and I face retirement in May one of three scenarios would occur: 1) lose a lot of $ in the market this year thereby risking near-term retirement ; 2) a safe well funded more conservative/moderate retirement; or 3) attempt fat-fire moving to a very expensive/posh area.

With the market dropping we figured we better ensure retirement type #2 and admit retirement type #3 most likely an unrealistic reach at this point. #1 situation- potentially having to continue working because we lost too much $ is to horrible to think about.

Still could get back into the market. Who knows, it may work out well. Otherwise eventually getting back in to market helps hedge against inflation- hopefully. But I realize we will probably miss biggest gains. We rather miss the biggest gains but not have to work any longer vs potentially losing a lot, with potentially a slow market recovery, and having to work or forever or have a skinny retirement.

Hopefully this point of view makes sense.
Smart move, in my opinion. I did the same thing in 2013. I saw too many co-workers learn a hard lesson in 2001, and reset their retirement plans. Good luck!
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Increasing cash positions
Old 03-31-2020, 08:10 PM   #36
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Increasing cash positions

Not increasing our cash position. I believe in picking an asset allocation that lets one sleep at night, stay fully invested and stay the course. I have evolved in my mid-50s to a 50/50 allocation, which is down 11.1% for the year. My domestic total bond fund is enjoying a strong 2020 so far. Anyone who’d panic sell at a 11.1% decline should be in rental houses or CDs. We’ll see where we are on Dec. 31st and then I’ll...do nothing.
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:42 PM   #37
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I'm pretty much out of the market. today, I had our FA move our two largest IRA's to cash. I understand this goes against all recommendations but I just can't get past the feeling that the bottom hasn't even come close yet. I don't want to be alarmist, but I seriously think we're in 1929 right now. I'm not willing to tuff out a 50% drop from here.

Just a few things that took me over the edge:
- How easily the gov't threw $2T at the problem compounding or national debt with little more than a few weeks of discussion.
- The unemployment rate, which I think will be higher than the depression, just maybe not for as long.
- There are companies that will either go under (stock to $0) or be bailed out and controlled by the gov't.
- First quarter earnings are going to be coming out in April. I think it will be brutal and I don't see the 2nd or 3rd quarter getting much better.

The optimist in me does see better times ahead so now my goal is to find products that are responsive to a few things. One - I think I'm going to need some inflation protection that provides some income. That may be as simple as cash. Not sure yet. Second - I'll be on the lookout for good companies or segments of certain industries to get back in with. For example, I don't see touching a travel/hospitality/restaurant stock any time soon but healthcare may still be strong. We'll see.

Right now, I came to basically the same conclusion and Mountain skier:
I had significant cash positions when this started with about 35% equities. I came to this same conclusion and am basically out except for a few individual corporate bonds I wasn't willing to sell at the time at fire sale prices.

I think the shocks are just starting and there will be more than one wave of this virus.
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:52 PM   #38
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I'm pretty much out of the market. today, I had our FA move our two largest IRA's to cash. I understand this goes against all recommendations but I just can't get past the feeling that the bottom hasn't even come close yet. I don't want to be alarmist, but I seriously think we're in 1929 right now. I'm not willing to tuff out a 50% drop from here.

Just a few things that took me over the edge:
- How easily the gov't threw $2T at the problem compounding or national debt with little more than a few weeks of discussion....

I wanted to discuss this one point a bit more. If, as it appears, the Fed is going to try to print its way out of this crisis, doesn't that point to a significant devaluation of the dollar - making cash like assets a poor position? I agree that equities are risky and very likely to fall from here, but I'm not at all sure cash is the answer.

FWIW my best solution to this is still to hold my nose and keep my equity allocation, but I would think that a good argument could be made for commodities or RE. I'm curious about what you folks think.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:12 PM   #39
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I wanted to discuss this one point a bit more. If, as it appears, the Fed is going to try to print its way out of this crisis, doesn't that point to a significant devaluation of the dollar - making cash like assets a poor position? I agree that equities are risky and very likely to fall from here, but I'm not at all sure cash is the answer.

FWIW my best solution to this is still to hold my nose and keep my equity allocation, but I would think that a good argument could be made for commodities or RE. I'm curious about what you folks think.
I'm glad you asked. I've been staying out because I can't tell which way any of this is going. I do not see wild inflation as a fait accomplait (pardon my French) no matter how much money gets printed. There are ways to handle that. And if we have no money, like a depression, NO MONEY, how is actually having money going to cause inflation? Money on top of money yes, maybe, but not if it's just filling a hole where there needs to be money. But I am not an economist and even with ways to deal with any future inflation the Head Shed might choose not to for a variety of reasons (mostly political probably) or might be earnest but just incompetent about it.

All that being said... so since inflation would suppress stocks for a while (possibly my remaining lifetime) and cash is obviously going to lag, what's good to own?

Real estate? Gold? They're the 2 biggies everyone always brings up. I do not want to own actual real estate. Would REIT funds be a suitable surrogate? There are funds that invest in gold related companies but people have told me they can go under and only real physical gold will do. I say that's a crock. Almost nobody could feasibly own gold.

And what percentage of a portfolio would be needed to reasonably keep up with inflation?
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:22 PM   #40
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That’s a pretty bold move! Good luck to you.
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That Viper must be a twin turbo with all the goodies. You sir, have guts.
Thanks.

Targa now and no more Viper. If the DOW comes back to 30,000 you might see a Ferrari458tom
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