Increasing Lifespan & FIRE

[tpac]

How have recent breakthroughs in healthspan / lifespan extension influenced your approach to FI?

If we're 10-20 years away from longevity escape velocity (each 1 year you live research extends your lifespan by 1 year) how does that affect optimized investment and savings strategies for those preparing for FI?

Some big potential impacts I can think of are (1) savings required for preventative care / longevity investments going up, (2) savings required for other healthcare needs going down and (3) significantly extended FI period increasing sequence-of-returns risk.

If for whatever reason you're not following the science (or are skeptical of science in general) just treat it like a thought experiment ��

[CoolChange]

My portfolio goal in RE is to beat inflation, after living expenses, each year. So far, I have easily done this. If I can keep this streak alive, the longer I live, the better my finances will look. Of course, by traditional measures, this also indicates that I waited entirely too long to retire.

Seriously, though. I retired in my late 40's. So, planning for 45 or 65+ more years is close to the same for me at this point (only a few years into retirement). 1) Keep living expenses low
2) Invest to beat living expenses X personal inflation
3) Hedge as best I can against black swans

And, I am actually very hopeful that I will still be scuba diving and bicycling on my 120th birthday.

[aaronc879]

I have seen almost no one who has good mobility after age 75 so I have no intention to work long enough to save enough to cover me past that age. Increased longevity does no good if those are all bad years.

[GenXguy]

I just plan to cover expenses for a lot longer than most people live because you never know, and I don't want to be broke.

[tpac]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoolChange My portfolio goal in RE is to beat inflation, after living expenses, each year. So far, I have easily done this. If I can keep this streak alive, the longer I live, the better my finances will look. Of course, by traditional measures, this also indicates that I waited entirely too long to retire. Seriously, though. I retired in my late 40's. So, planning for 45 or 65+ more years is close to the same for me at this point (only a few years into retirement). 1) Keep living expenses low 2) Invest to beat living expenses X personal inflation 3) Hedge as best I can against black swans And, I am actually very hopeful that I will still be scuba diving and bicycling on my 120th birthday.

Similar thoughts here about the post FI period.

I think longevity tech has a bigger impact on the savings stages - ideally targeting a lower savings rate and putting any extra cash into longevity tech. Essentially if an optimal target savings rate was previously ~65% I think there's enough promise in currently available longevity tech to alot *at least* 10% of that to longevity tech. So an optimal FI savings strategy may now be ~50-55% savings rate, ~10-15% investment in longevity tech.

[Midpack]

I watched my MIL live to 88, and my parents live to 93 and 96. I’m WAY more interested in quality years than total years. And I haven’t seen anything conclusive regarding longevity, especially in the US.

[street]

I beleive when I do FIRECala the older I get the more money I have left over. So, the longer I live the more my portfolio grows. So, if that is the case and true I should have more and not have to worry about not having enough. I would have other worriers.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aaronc879 I have seen almost no one who has good mobility after age 75 so I have no intention to work long enough to save enough to cover me past that age. Increased longevity does no good if those are all bad years.

Over the past year, I have played Pickleball with 4 guys past the age of 75.
They all had some mobility.

[tpac]

Agreed that increasing healthspan is as important if not more important than increasing lifespan. I think if you're 60 and making evidence based lifestyle choices then 125 isn't unlikely with only maybe 1 or 2 of those years being compromised by health issues (compressed decrepitude). Younger than that and there's a bit too much uncertainty to guess.

There are plenty of healthy and mobile 90+ year olds *today* so 125 shouldn't seem unrealistic. Unfortunately the US is a poor benchmark for healthy aging and I think this limits Americans' imaginations in an unhelpful way.

I'm mid 30s and 150 seems like an achievable life expectancy barring nuclear war, cascading climate crisis or ecological collapse.

[Out of Steam]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail Over the past year, I have played Pickleball with 4 guys past the age of 75. They all had some mobility.

Similarly, I've been hiking since retirement with a number of 75 year olds. Generally 3 - 6 miles on a weekday morning.

[travelover]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Out of Steam Similarly, I've been hiking since retirement with a number of 75 year olds. Generally 3 - 6 miles on a weekday morning.

An old friend just called me to say he'd won the senior tennis championship at his club. He is 77.

[Souschef]

To celebrate my 80th birthday, I actually flew a P-51 fighter. However, I agree that as you get older, your mobility decreases.
My dad died at 93, and my mom at 102. Both had their marbles to the end.
I put age 100 into Firecalc.

[Out of Steam]

Based on my current condition and family history, I need to plan for the possibility of a lifespan significantly longer than average.

I have no illusions of outliving my maternal grandfather, who lived until his mid-90s.

[street]

I know a couple 75 to 77 year old's that are pretty good shape and with a lot of mobility. I believe they worked at it thou.

[6miths]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail Over the past year, I have played Pickleball with 4 guys past the age of 75. They all had some mobility.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Out of Steam Similarly, I've been hiking since retirement with a number of 75 year olds. Generally 3 - 6 miles on a weekday morning.

Quote:

Originally Posted by travelover An old friend just called me to say he'd won the senior tennis championship at his club. He is 77.

No possible bias in any of these observations. lol.

We have a few major hurdles to overcome before a significant number of quality years are added for the general population. In the meantime, better to plan financially for a long life - healthy or not.

Similar to Street, the longer I live the richer I apparently die. The kids won't be too happy about it though.

[GravitySucks]

US life expectancy dropped in the last few years. Covid sure hasn't helped:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeaut...m_source=share

(Number of deaths chart.)

Even PreCovid it's been dropping since 2014.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-l...-a-row-2019-11

On the plus side of Covid the spending about 1/2 my SAFEMAX this year adds about 4 years of expenses at 92. Add in the fact I don't expect getting a vaccine till August 2021 will also be lower spend year and I'm probably good for eternity.

[tb001]

I look at it as trying to guess the perpetual safe withdrawal rate. I follow longevity science, though unfortunately I think at 50 I am about 20-25 years to old for it to make an impact. This type of science takes time to pan out. Even so, I’d like to be in a sub 3% withdrawal rate situation. I’m just not willing to work until we get there, so hopefully the market cooperates.

[RunningBum]

I think it's been pointed out that life expectancy is dropping because of opioid issues. Don't get hooked on opioids and I believe the life expectancy continues to slowly rise.

Covid will have some effect but it tends to be older people that die from it. Someone who dies at 75 instead of 80 has less of an effect on life expectancy stats than someone who dies at 25 instead of 80.

[W2R]

I'm 72.5 years old, and I'm not going to be winning any athletic contests any time soon.

My retirement is over-funded (for several reasons, including retiring in 2009).

My spending needs in retirement were overestimated too, when I was doing my planning. I don't really need or want to spend as much as I thought I would.

So, my nest egg is growing, not shrinking. I guess I have about twice what I did when I first retired, plus I now have SS and mini-pension. My WR rate has been hovering around 1% for the past few years.

I am enjoying life more than ever before, and I would seriously love to have a longer lifespan if I should be so lucky.

Of course, unexpected massive inflation could provide a huge hit to my retirement income. Who knows what the future will bring. But, I am not worried about it.

[GravitySucks]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunningBum I think it's been pointed out that life expectancy is dropping because of opioid issues. Don't get hooked on opioids and I believe the life expectancy continues to slowly rise. Covid will have some effect but it tends to be older people that die from it. Someone who dies at 75 instead of 80 has less of an effect on life expectancy stats than someone who dies at 25 instead of 80.

Not to be overly pessimistic but it's Covid now. How about when the bacteria that continue to mutate and no longer respond to antibiotics?
I'm 62 and am hoping for another 30. Even if science extends lifespans I doubt if it will increase the quality of life of the aged much higher in that time. I'm thinking we may have reached a plateau that won't be surpassed in my life time. And 92 is very optimistic for me personally anyway.

Hope I'm wrong.