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Old 10-14-2021, 07:08 AM   #101
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Is this permanent moving forward? I am 43 so when time comes. Will I benefit?
As you are under 62 years old, the increase you will get is the AWI adjustment of 2.83%, not the 5.9% increase.
In terms of permanent, well it does increase by the 2.83%, then will adjust from there each year, so kind of permanent if I understand how you are using that term.
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:14 AM   #102
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probably will coincide with the largest medicare part B increase as well. that will likely eat up any gains that the 6% increase provides.
Actually not so for most folks, unless your SS number amounts to the current 148.50 Part B monthly and the Part B goes up by the same 5.9% or more.
Most folks on this site have an estimated SS of more than $1,782 (148.50*12) yearly.
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:42 AM   #103
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Example: Full retirement age is 65 and social security benefits are $2500 BUT age at which someone starts collecting social security benefits is 69 and amount is now $3000. Would the cola increase be based on $2500 or $3000?
My understanding is that it is based on the $3000 one collects starting at 69 in your example.

That's why delaying SS is such a great benefit and the best annuity one can buy.
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Old 10-14-2021, 09:24 AM   #104
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The national average wage index for 2020 is 55,628.60. The index is 2.83 percent higher than the index for 2019.
So the average wage earner took a 3% pay cut.
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Old 10-14-2021, 09:59 AM   #105
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My understanding is that it is based on the $3000 one collects starting at 69 in your example.

That's why delaying SS is such a great benefit and the best annuity one can buy.
Not quite. The PIA is adjusted by any COLAs and then the non cola delayed credits are applied. So $2500*1.059=$2647 and then delayed credits are applied. For this one year the result is the same, but as you add in each year's inflation change the final result will slightly differ
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Old 10-14-2021, 10:08 AM   #106
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^^^ I also turned 62 this year (and plan on taking at 68), so yippee.

So I suppose a couple of months into next year, the MySocialSecurity site will have the new numbers.
I've been confused by this. The Mysocialsecurity site has not changed to reflect COLAs I am entitled to. I suspect they only do the math once you actually claim. Perhaps someone who has delayed and is now claiming can clarify.
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Old 10-14-2021, 10:36 AM   #107
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Is this permanent moving forward? I am 43 so when time comes. Will I benefit?
If you are referring to the COLA, no.
Your SS will be based on the cumulative AWI till you’re 62.
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Old 10-14-2021, 10:39 AM   #108
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So the average wage earner took a 3% pay cut.
Yes, if you want to to back and compare AWI vs COLA over the last 30 years, you can see what the cumulative effect was….(spoiler alert)…you may not like what you find.
Edit: actually it looks AWIs grew better than COLAs, I thought the negative AWI growth would hurt more than the 0 COLAs, but there was only 1 negative since 1975.
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Old 10-14-2021, 10:56 AM   #109
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Yes, if you want to to back and compare AWI vs COLA over the last 30 years, you can see what the cumulative effect was….(spoiler alert)…you may not like what you find.
Or you might as in theory money that doesnt flow to labor flows to capital.
But yeah, I've lived on labor much longer than capital.
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Old 10-14-2021, 12:35 PM   #110
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I've been confused by this. The Mysocialsecurity site has not changed to reflect COLAs I am entitled to. I suspect they only do the math once you actually claim. Perhaps someone who has delayed and is now claiming can clarify.
The Social Security site for those who have not claimed is adjusted once a year late in the year (either Nov or Dec) and then you will see the COLA increase factored in for future SS estimates.
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Old 10-14-2021, 04:13 PM   #111
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The frightening thing about 5.9% inflation is the impact that has on real returns. Ouch. Cash just lost 5.9%. My total stock index fund is doing fine though @ 12% real. Guess that's why we have stocks.
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Old 10-14-2021, 06:43 PM   #112
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The frightening thing about 5.9% inflation is the impact that has on real returns. Ouch. Cash just lost 5.9%. My total stock index fund is doing fine though @ 12% real. Guess that's why we have stocks.
Yup, the "big cash cushion" folks are getting hammered. Whether they realize it or not.
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:14 PM   #113
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Yup, the "big cash cushion" folks are getting hammered. Whether they realize it or not.


The “big cash cushion” was getting hammered long before this inflation spike.
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:20 PM   #114
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Yup, the "big cash cushion" folks are getting hammered. Whether they realize it or not.
And when the SHTF in other asset classes, my hammered cash will be buying up whatever is on sale.
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Old 10-15-2021, 01:50 PM   #115
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And when the SHTF in other asset classes, my hammered cash will be buying up whatever is on sale.

Not if its an inflationary SHTF scenario and given the increase in the money supply + congress stance + federal reserve stance, I think that's more likely.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

And even if it doesn't, if you have been sitting on that cash for 4 years and the market goes up another 25% and then drops 25%, you're way off in cash vs the market.

The good news with inflation is if you are adaptable, its easier to cope with inflation (types of foods/entertainment you consume, how much you drive, etc)
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Old 10-15-2021, 01:54 PM   #116
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So, a question: Does this mean that my future (5 years from now) SS payment amount can also be adjusted by 5.9% (all other things not changed)? So, if I was supposed to get $3500 at a particular future age, is that amount now $3706, or is it not that simple?
Yes.
Yes, it is that simple.

Hard to find it out on the SS site, though.
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Old 10-15-2021, 02:01 PM   #117
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The good news with inflation is if you are adaptable, its easier to cope with inflation (types of foods/entertainment you consume, how much you drive, etc)
That is the way I look at it. The gains I get with what I have in the market are good enough for me. My cash stash is for spending, and I can adjust as needed for the circumstances. Drat, we will buy prime rib only 3 days of the week, instead of 4. Life is hard...
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