interesting lecture on income/consumption over the last 30 years

OK, let's say the answer is to become just like France. I could actually get into that. Wine, women, food, and art! And free nannies for all of the oppressed middle class families!

All we have to do is agree to a 48% tax rate. And sucky investment returns. Who's with me?!

Give me an example of a social program that France has and we don't? (well except the free nannies, but believe me that's more anecdotal than the norm despite what Michael Moore wants you to believe). We got SS, we got food stamps, public housing, a reduced version of national healthcare (medicaid and medicare which covers the most expensive of all healthcare services' users, i.e. old folks), unemployment insurance, you name it. The difference is that France and other European countries know that it costs a lot of money to run these programs and tax their people accordingly (by the way there are European countries with higher taxes than France). In America, we just put it on the tab because no one wants to make a choice between low taxes/no social programs and high taxes/social programs. So we adopt the easy low tax/social programs approach to keep everyone happy. But at one point the bill is going to come due and then you can watch your taxes go to 48% too because I don't think that cutting social programs is going to win a lot of support. And it might be coming sooner than you think. Look at Obama's proposal. He wants to raise the top tax bracket to 39%, add an average state income tax of 5% and payroll taxes of about 7% and you get a top tax bracket of 51% for the highest earners. Ignore the payroll taxes and you have a top income tax bracket at 44% (including both Federal and average State income taxes). In France the top income tax bracket is 40%.
 
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< What she doesn't say is the average (not median) house increase from 1400 sq feet in the 70s to over 2300 sq feet now days. So we are getting bigger houses to hold the more stuff we have. >

Wait a sec, I thought the average middle class house was 25 years old. How big was the average house in 1983?
 
Give me an example of a social program that France has and we don't?

Mais, bien sur. Well, I'm not French, so I could be making some of this stuff up.

35 hour work week
retirement at age 60
relatively high minimum wage, indexed to inflation
subsidized employment for unemployed youth and others (starving artists don't starve in France!)
subsidized leave of absence if you feel stressed out (well, Holland has this, not sure about France)

My impression is that they lead the way with their safety net. Nobody suffers. Nobody is even a bit uncomfortable. We make our poor and middle class squirm and eat government cheese! :)

Edit: and related to a point in the lecture, French universities are free. Probably preschool as well.
 
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Mais, bien sur. Well, I'm not French, so I could be making some of this stuff up.

35 hour work week
retirement at age 60
relatively high minimum wage, indexed to inflation
subsidized employment for unemployed youth and others (starving artists don't starve in France!)
subsidized leave of absence if you feel stressed out (well, Holland has this, not sure about France)


Ah but you need to keep up with the NEW France. The 35 hour work week is on its way out, retirement age is being pushed up (and by the way in France the date of your retirement is determined not by your age but by the number of years of work, so if you started working at 16, then you can retire earlier). Public servants are losing their privileges too. Minimum wage (which in France is no more a social program than it is in the US) is near 1200 euros, which is close to $1200 if you compare purchasing power. It is true it is indexed on inflation, but on the inflation as calculated by the government and people will tell you that in reality it doesn't keep up with cost of living increases. French artists might not be starving (in the most extreme sense of the word), but living on 447 euros a month (the maximum amount one can receive if no longer covered by unemployment insurance) can hardly be comfortable and might just keep starvation at bay (you can always rely on charitable organizations for food if needed anyways). But do you know a lot of truly starving American artists?

But you make a good point, there is definitely more depth in European social programs than in American ones. My point was that America is often seen as a purely capitalistic country and I just wanted people to realize that there is far less difference between America and Europe than they believe (or care to admit), that's all.

My impression is that they lead the way with their safety net. Nobody suffers. Nobody is even a bit uncomfortable. We make our poor and middle class squirm and eat government cheese! :)

Perhaps you should take a trip to France... It could change your mind...;)
 
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This increase amount of stuff has lead to a significantly larger house. She says the median number of rooms increase from 5.8 to 6.1. What she doesn't say is the average (not median) house increase from 1400 sq feet in the 70s to over 2300 sq feet now days. So we are getting bigger houses to hold the more stuff we have. Contrary to we she implies the material prosperity of 2000 family is significantly greater than the 70s.

clif, I would check to see that you are comparing the median (or avg.) of new+old sq. ft. and not just 2300s.f. as a (med./avg.) for NEW construction. I took her number to include the entirety of the housing market.

Please also don't fall into the trap of the average being higher than the median. Bill Gates' house is quite large indeed. As his income skews the avg., so does his house size. Median is probably more informative.

It's true some people may have somewhat more stuff and somewhat more space.. but I have two thoughts on that:
1.) "material prosperity" is not real if it is simply a function of debt
2.) I think you and others here (even me) have a mental picture of the McMansion and the 2 SUVs, etc. that might be more prevalent in our imagination than it is in the US at large. People here on the board are relatively prosperous and so those spendy folks are our neighbors.. maybe we don't "see" the people living in the same old small houses and tenements in Mississippi or the Bronx or Detroit or Ohio. Visiting my sis years ago in LA.. what "stood out" to me were not the occasional Ferarris and Cayennes and Dodge Vipers but the massive number of completely derelict beaters that were still on the roads, held together with duct tape and baling wire. It depends on your pov.. your mental "filter".

Just remembered that we also had a barbershop and a ladies' salon w/in walking distance. Gone now. Oldbabe, thanks for that idyllic snapshot.. maybe it's my age or the area.. but we no longer had milk/bread deliveries (actually a few people still had milk).. some families (not ours) DID have a snack delivery.. big metal tins of "Charles' Chips". These were rigourously kept on top of the refrigerator.

Just thinking of that pattern, though.. imagine the efficiency of one truck going around to deliver daily milk/bread. Sure, a lot of miles.. but far fewer than having everyone get in their car individually to drive to the store. Plus, less need for parking space when you do get to the store. It's CFB's recognition of expenses continuously being offloaded onto the consumer. DIY promoted as cheaper with no regard for externalities. The milk/bread company saves X in not having the truck and driver, so bread in theory costs a few pennies less. But consumers have to chip in X*A in the aggregate to buy more cars and gas. Instead of one truck with 500 gallons of milk and another with 500 loaves of bread, you have 500 cars with one gallon of milk and one loaf of bread each. Stores chip in X*B to buy more land for parking. State (taxpayers) chip in X*C for more roads that lead to more stores. Etc.

Hence, we observe that bread prices have nominally only increased a certain amount. Taken like that, it seems like there's little inflation.
Then we can conveniently blame the middle class person for their "optional" second car and their "voluntarily" increased gas consumption... just to have ACCESS to the loaf of bread. Oy.
 
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It seems odd that some are so quick to discount the information. I got the impression for some of Warren's statements that she is a bit liberal. But I believe the information is factual... It is one's interpretation...

She stated that there were fewer low cost starter homes being built today. That is probably true. Plus, if you live in a large metropolitan area... lower cost housing is often in an area of town where you would not want to live (safety reasons) or out so far that the commute is a killer.

That is not an excuse for people making poor financial decisions... but it probably does contribute to people getting in over their heads on houses.

I think all we have to do is look to some of those statistics and see that people are making some fundamental mistakes. It seems that large numbers of people are making poor decisions.

While I am not for turning the US into a socialist type government... there is a problem. I view it as a risk to our economy over the longer duration. It is ok for people to spend... but no one benefits if they over do it. The results of bankruptcy is that the rest of us PAY!
 
clif, I would check to see that you are comparing the median (or avg.) of new+old sq. ft. and not just 2300s.f. as a (med./avg.) for NEW construction. I took her number to include the entirety of the housing market.

clif is comparing the entirety of the housing market....

"The average American home swelled from 983 square feet in 1950 to 2,349 square feet in 2004 -- a 140% increase in size. And everything about them is bigger, from their three- and four-car garages to the professional-grade stoves and refrigerators. In 2004, 43% of new homes had 9-foot ceilings, up from less than 15% in the 1980s."

The swelling McMansion backlash - Buying a House - MSN Real Estate

So Professor Warren may be right that the total number of rooms only increased from 5.8 to 6.1, but she ignored the fact that the SIZE of those rooms has become much bigger. And bigger rooms cost more to build, maintain, furnish, heat, cool, tax, insure, etc.
 
clif is comparing the entirety of the housing market....

"The average American home swelled from 983 square feet in 1950 to 2,349 square feet in 2004 -- a 140% increase in size. And everything about them is bigger, from their three- and four-car garages to the professional-grade stoves and refrigerators. In 2004, 43% of new homes had 9-foot ceilings, up from less than 15% in the 1980s."

The swelling McMansion backlash - Buying a House - MSN Real Estate

So Professor Warren may be right that the total number of rooms only increased from 5.8 to 6.1, but she ignored the fact that the SIZE of those rooms has become much bigger. And bigger rooms cost more to build, maintain, furnish, heat, cool, tax, insure, etc.

Interesting.

My house was built in 1930 and I have many of the construction records that my granddad kept. What you buy today in a house is a little different than what you bought back then.

Some examples of what was spent to build our 1600 sqft house that cost $6000 in 1930 with a 7% mortgage. The house is 2 story. 3 bedroom. 1 1/2 bath. kitchen, living and dining room with a full basement and a detached 2 car garage. Our lot is 50 x 150 and was $1350 extra

Foundation $300, the hole was extra, hand dug by two men and a boy and a horse. :p
Framing lumber to build the shell $1300
All the wiring in the house (60 amp service) $90
All the light fixtures $88
Coal furnace and ductwork installed $250

There were no appliances, you brought your own. The house had no insulation. The kitchen had 8 feet of counter space and one outlet. Each bedroom only had one outlet, the living room had four. Oak hardwood floors throughout the house and redgum woodwork.

A little different today I would say.
 
sorry guys.. a second MSN article linked from the first cites the 2,349 figure as AVERAGE of NEW construction. I think median of all units new+old is a more coherent figure, since ALL PEOPLE do not live in new homes.

For many homeowners, less is so much more - Improve & Repair - MSN Real Estate
Average size of new homes built in various developed countries

Country Sq. feet
United States 2,349
Australia 2,200
New Zealand 1,900
Canada 1,800
Japan 1,000
Ireland 930
U.K. 815

That is not to say that the bigger-home phenom. doesn't exist.. just not at the level that would make it a primary driving force behind the indebtedness and/or lack of financial and personal time flexibility now seen in the whole of the middle class.
That's what Warren is trying to get us to see.
 
The brilliant part of Warren's analysis is to show interrelated dynamics why education and real estate costs are going up so rapidly.

Parents are willing to pay higher real estate costs to get a better education for their children and mortgage interest is tax deductible. The combination of these two have resulted in intense competition for good school districts and much higher real estate costs for the areas that have good schools. You could see this in Philadelphia in the nineties when the University sponsored an elementary school in area surrounding the university, vastly improved the quality of education and real estate prices tripled in 6 years.

We can argue with her policy solutions, but she makes a point that higher real estate costs is not the most efficient way to fund K-12 education.
 
2.) I think you and others here (even me) have a mental picture of the McMansion and the 2 SUVs, etc. that might be more prevalent in our imagination than it is in the US at large. People here on the board are relatively prosperous and so those spendy folks are our neighbors.. maybe we don't "see" the people living in the same old small houses and tenements in Mississippi or the Bronx or Detroit or Ohio.

Or California. Housing costs in some parts of the country are so high that even moderate sized homes can be out of reach to many.

I plan to ER in southern Missouri, due to low housing costs. I will be able to afford as large a house as I want, there. I do not happen to want a McMansion, though.

I see plenty of McMansions but believe me, they aren't in my middle class neighborhood! :2funny:
 
W2R.. gotcha!! But that kinda proves my point. The McMansions are highly visible, but don't define the actual consumption of the vast majority of the middle class.. They're a convenient "handle" for the media, though. Note the MSN sleight-of-hand in claiming the avg. of ALL US houses is 2,300 s.f. .. when that's just new construction. It distorts our capacity for accurate discussion and consideration of where the pressures really are coming from.

I put a new thread up (in "Other Topics") on an article that talks about new AZ developments, their density and services.
 
After watching the lecture video I did a little digging and came up with my first paycheck after DW and I got married in 1972. I was interested in how I fit into the median income at the time compared to how I fit in the last month before I retired last fall.

I found I was above the median income for US males in 1972 and just below the household median income. DW was working at the time so we had two incomes. In the video Warren mentioned that the median income for males was just about level from 1970 to 2006. My ending income (for me alone) was 1.8 times the national household income.

Healthcare is interesting, $18.35 back then for all families. In September 2007 it was $120 for two and I know people with kids were paying a maximum of $180.

Exhibit A, notice the savings at 13.3%. :cool: My last month's savings was 50%. :cool::cool:
 

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W2R.. gotcha!! But that kinda proves my point. The McMansions are highly visible, but don't define the actual consumption of the vast majority of the middle class.. They're a convenient "handle" for the media, though. Note the MSN sleight-of-hand in claiming the avg. of ALL US houses is 2,300 s.f. .. when that's just new construction. It distorts our capacity for accurate discussion and consideration of where the pressures really are coming from.

I put a new thread up (in "Other Topics") on an article that talks about new AZ developments, their density and services.

You are so right about new homes being larger. It would really be interesting to find a median size of all occupied single family homes in the U.S. I have looked for that information briefly, but I haven't found it yet. I admit that I only listened to portions of the video, which was fascinating but lengthy, so if she presented that info I missed it.

In looking for "used" homes in Missouri, I have noticed that older homes are more likely than newer homes to be quite small by modern day standards, and often have only one bathroom. :eek: I don't think many homes are being built today with just one bathroom. When I was a child, a common experience for a middle class family was lining up to use the bathroom, pounding on the door while the teenaged daughter showers, and so on. It doesn't seem like middle class families have to do that any more.
 
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Here's an intersesting article about the kinds of people who aspired to the middle class, probably hoping to give their kids a better shot, moving their kids from urban areas to a new development in Arizona called Maricopa but ended up worse off, IMHO.
Calculated Risk

The upshot is that the developers of Maricopa didn't build a high school and there's absolutely nothing for teenagers to do except get a after school job at the supermarket which has become their hangout.

Looks like Ladelfina beat me to it. She posted this article link in "Other Topics" with a good summary. Great minds think alike!
 
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Oldbabe, that's exactly the link I posted on Other Topics! v. sad.

RightWingSis is telling me that AZ's RE troubles are due to illegals defaulting!!!
There's no end to the media distortion and distraction regarding a far more complex issue. (I didn't read the whole NYT piece yet, but a commenter pointed out that Maricopa is 96% white, for those who are interested.)
 
The brilliant part of Warren's analysis is to show interrelated dynamics why education and real estate costs are going up so rapidly.

Parents are willing to pay higher real estate costs to get a better education for their children and mortgage interest is tax deductible. The combination of these two have resulted in intense competition for good school districts and much higher real estate costs for the areas that have good schools. You could see this in Philadelphia in the nineties when the University sponsored an elementary school in area surrounding the university, vastly improved the quality of education and real estate prices tripled in 6 years.

We can argue with her policy solutions, but she makes a point that higher real estate costs is not the most efficient way to fund K-12 education.

Living in a city with the typical dysfunctional public school system I've had a ringside seat to what has happened. The money left town and the system fell apart. Homes in my area have kept their value because of one drawing card, parochial schools and families are willing to pay extra even if they aren't affiliated with the catholic religion.

Maybe we will see a slow reversal of the money flight as gas prices and taxes eat into incomes more and more.
 
The brilliant part of Warren's analysis is to show interrelated dynamics why education and real estate costs are going up so rapidly.

...

You could see this in Philadelphia in the nineties when the University sponsored an elementary school in area surrounding the university, vastly improved the quality of education and real estate prices tripled in 6 years.

Brilliant, but wrong. I took a look at prices in Riverside, San Bernadino, and Ontario -- the armpits of SoCal. Prices trippled from 1997-2006. I somehow doubt it was due to their great school districts.

Now there absolutley is a correlation between higher home prices and quality of education. But that was certainly true in the 1970's as well.

Our SoCal family had members in schools in both Riverside and Beverly Hills. Believe me, the differences were striking in the 1970's.
 
Our SoCal family had members in schools in both Riverside and Beverly Hills. Believe me, the differences were striking in the 1970's.

For example English was spoken in Beverly Hills.

BTW, great older movie about (among other things) one family's solution to the school problem

Slums of Beverly Hills, starring Alan Arkin, Marisa Tomei and Natasha Lyonne.

Try it, you’ll like it. :)

ha
 
Anyone else notice that UncleHoney still has paycheck stubs from 36 years ago? We may need to do an intervention.
 
Anyone else notice that UncleHoney still has paycheck stubs from 36 years ago? We may need to do an intervention.

Just following instructions T Al...

Notice it says "Retain This Record" :D

DW has already intervened in most of my collection of valuable data. :bat:
 
Seems to me that this housing crisis is a partial solution to the lack of affordable housing facing the middle class.

A few more years of this and that 76% increase in housing will be wiped away.

New families will find the median home much more affordable. >:D
 
Has anyone here ever sent their kids to an urban school? I'm telling you, it's not a pretty picture. A smart kid will become brain dead within a few years of that kind of education environment.

I'm in a true urban school system, and it quickly becomes too large to generalize. Yes a city with hundreds of public school has a few horrible pits, lots of duds and a few good schools. On average that's pretty dismal, but kids only go to one school at a time so getting a good one (and especially getting good teachers) can still be a good educational experience. Getting a bad one leads to parents withdrawing support from the schools, sending kids to private schools and eroding social network in neighborhoods. Assuming parents can tell the difference between a good and bad school experience and either lobby for improvements or react if needed. Not always possible I suppose if both parents are working and have limited time to deal with it.
 
OK - now for a libertarian streak - expectations seem to be driving a lot of this - what about home schooling? what about mom (or dad) staying home for the kids and then picking up their career afterward? I work with many people who do that and do well - a woman can still become educated - just don't have children until afterwards - or as T-Al says don't have them. What about public transportation - yes, yes, I know in the Western US it's not as good as it could be - however, there are ways if one want to find them. As for a house, it does look as though the average square footage has gone up and in general the concomitant costs of acquisition and maintenance go up as well.

To me it comes down to expectations and choices - additionally, after doing some statistical research for a few years, I also found out you can present anything the way you want to prove your point. Bias is always present, therefore let the reader beware.
 
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