Investing in this market

[copyright1997reloaded]

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Originally Posted by Koolau (Slightly Tongue in Cheek - but not completely) Wait. What? Europeans are more enlightened than we give them credit for? Germany is in Europe, right? They committed to solar and wind until they figured out that the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Enlightened? I guess they are now since they're adding back coal plants.

Germany just posted PPI numbers this morning:
German PPI YoY 33.6%, +1.6% for the month. Energy prices up 87.1% YoY.

"Decommission the nukes" they said, everything will be fine. "We don't need any LNG processing facilities" they said, everything will be fine.

Powerplants paid 241% more YoY for natural gas, and now they are scrambling to get coal fired plants restarted...but need to pass a law before that is allowed.

[aja8888]

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Originally Posted by purplesky The Tesla model Y is middle-class with car payment. Not just rich peop le. Transportation is changing because it's what younger people want to buy now.

Your post made me think about our family and who bought what cars in the past 10 years.

My Daughter - Mustang GT Premier Edition

Stepson - Jetta 1.4 liter sedan

Stepdaughter 1 - Toyota Rav4 (gasoline only)

Stepdaughter 2 - Jetta TDI wagon (diesel)

Grandson 1 - Chev full size pickup

Grandson 2 - Jetta 2.0 (older one)

Son-in-law - 2022 Hyundai Tuscon

Me - (2 cars) - 2021 Hyundai Tuscon, 2005 Mustang Convertible

Granddaughter (just out of college) - Ford Escape (gasoline)

Daughter's Cousin - 2021 Toyota Rav4 (hybrid)

No electric cars, young folk in this blended family seem to like small SUVs and Jetta's (gas and diesel). All cars except for my 2005 mustang were bought within the last 10 years.

[purplesky]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter [So Big Oil has somehow been suppressing electric car technology and now that suppression is ending?]Oh, I think talking about it would be safe enough if we both wore our tinfoil hats.

It is all out in the open. Follow the money. Capitalism at its finest.

Why wouldn't Big Oil obstruct and suppress the electric car movement?

The electric car train has left the station so it doesn't matter now anyway.

[purplesky]

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Originally Posted by aja8888 Your post made me think about our family and who bought what cars in the past 10 years. My Daughter - Mustang GT Premier Edition Stepson - Jetta 1.4 liter sedan Stepdaughter 1 - Toyota Rav4 (gasoline only) Stepdaughter 2 - Jetta TDI wagon (diesel) Grandson 1 - Chev full size pickup Grandson 2 - Jetta 2.0 (older one) Son-in-law - 2022 Hyundai Tuscon Me - (2 cars) - 2021 Hyundai Tuscon, 2005 Mustang Convertible Granddaughter (just out of college) - Ford Escape (gasoline) Daughter's Cousin - 2021 Toyota Rav4 (hybrid) No electric cars, young folk in this blended family seem to like small SUVs and Jetta's (gas and diesel). All cars except for my 2005 mustang were bought within the last 10 years.

But the next car they buy will probably be electric because they will have a choice.

Electric cars are just now becoming available.
There is a long wait now but in 3 to 5 years people will have the opportunity to choose gas or electric.

Pickup buyers will choose the electric Chevy Silverado or the Ford F150 Lightning when they become readily available to buy.

Automakers are now designing and building electric cars as I type this.

In 10 years new Gas cars will be gone for purchase and Walmart and Target will be offering electric car charging discounts while you shop.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by purplesky It is all out in the open. Follow the money. Capitalism at its finest. ...

This was probably after they suppressed the 100mpg carburetor that ran on water? Kind of amazing; I think you really do believe this stuff.

[target2019]

Some threads serve better than others to collect candidates for my category of Incredibly Great Nascient Outstanding Ruling Expert category of posters.

[RunningBum]

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Originally Posted by target2019 Some threads serve better than others to collect candidates for my category of Incredibly Great Nascient Outstanding Ruling Expert category of posters.

I see what you did there.

[purplesky]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter This was probably after they suppressed the 100mpg carburetor that ran on water? Kind of amazing; I think you really do believe this stuff.

Thanks for the info. I did not know that.

[aja8888]

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Originally Posted by purplesky In 10 years new Gas cars will be gone for purchase and Walmart and Target will be offering electric car charging discounts while you shop.

There are 280 million cars on the road today in the U.S., and 96% of them are gas and diesel powered (we are not including huge trucks and construction vehicles here). The average life of a car on the road in the U.S. is 12 years so a good many of these, and many replacements, will be around for 2+ decades.

New gasoline stations are being built in my neighborhood as I type this. I don't believe the banks would finance a big construction project like a 24 island fueling station if it was only going to be around a short while.

The odds are that hydrocarbon fueled vehicles will be around for several more decades. I also believe that U.S. auto manufacturers will be making both gas and electric cars for the next 30 years.

[copyright1997reloaded]

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Originally Posted by target2019 Some threads serve better than others to collect candidates for my category of Incredibly Great Nascient Outstanding Ruling Expert category of posters.

Yep, I may have to rescind my statement of never having a poster on that list.

[purplesky]

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Originally Posted by aja8888 There are 280 million cars on the road today in the U.S., and 96% of them are gas and diesel powered (we are not including huge trucks and construction vehicles here). The average life of a car on the road in the U.S. is 12 years so a good many of these, and many replacements, will be around for 2+ decades. New gasoline stations are being built in my neighborhood as I type this. I don't believe the banks would finance a big construction project like a 24 island fueling station if it was only going to be around a short while. The odds are that hydrocarbon fueled vehicles will be around for several more decades. I also believe that U.S. auto manufacturers will be making both gas and electric cars for the next 30 years.

I guess anything is possible.

I just think consumers will choose the BEVs because they are better.

More efficient and better performance and lower maintenance costs.

5 years ago BEVs were a hypothetical. Now with billions worldwide invested in this direction I would think it might happen faster.

I admit I might be wrong though.

[aja8888]

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Originally Posted by purplesky I guess anything is possible. I just think consumers will choose the BEVs because they are better. More efficient and better performance and lower maintenance costs. 5 years ago BEVs were a hypothetical. Now with billions worldwide invested in this direction I would think it might happen faster. I admit I might be wrong though.

If I was to buy a new vehicle in the next few years, it would be a hybrid. works for both worlds. A lot of my friends (mostly older types) think the same way.

It's a good transition vehicle for the time being as EVs become mainstream someday.

[REWahoo]

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Originally Posted by aja8888 If I was to buy a new vehicle in the next few years, it would be a hybrid. works for both worlds. A lot of my friends (mostly older types) think the same way. It's a good transition vehicle for the time being as EVs become mainstream someday.

Agreed. Bought a hybrid in March. The right car for this “older type”.

[purplesky]

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Originally Posted by aja8888 If I was to buy a new vehicle in the next few years, it would be a hybrid. works for both worlds. A lot of my friends (mostly older types) think the same way. It's a good transition vehicle for the time being as EVs become mainstream someday.

Yes the Toyota RAV4 hybrid is a great vehicle.
I was getting my car serviced recently at the Toyota dealer and the RAV4 hybrid would be at the top of my list if I were in the market to buy a new car now.

It will be interesting to see what Toyota does with the next 4forerunner.
The current forerunner generation is still selling great and the fuel economy is terrible but the reliability is amazing.

[Koolau]

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound Can't speak for Germany, because I don't know what they think. But I have been to Portugal, and the highway traffic was very light. This was in 2019, so it was not because of Covid. Hence, I don't think Portuguese people expect cheap and abundant electricity as a constitutional right. If they cannot afford to drive, they stay home or take the bus. They don't complain. PS. Or they stick with ICE cars.

We aren't Portugese.

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by Koolau We aren't Portugese.

And that's why we are not as enlightened.

[beanctr88]

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Originally Posted by Chuckanut Crash? I think not. There is still a huge shortage of housing units in the USA. Four million that last time I checked. Prices may get softer and probably may go down somewhat. But crash? I doubt it. Though I do admit if I was a speculator investor betting on the bigger fool theory to bail me out, I would be sweating.

People often say there is a shortage of housing units in the US. I find this hard to believe. There are millions of second homes that sit vacant most of the year. Go to any major city and drive around and you can find many empty houses. I’d love to see how that number is actually calculated. It must exclude a lot of houses deemed too old or undesirable. Maybe it also excludes houses in areas like the Rust Belt with high unemployment and outward migration.

[Koolau]

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound 25% increase is quite doable, unless we want it in a couple of years. Over 10 or 20 years, it should not be a problem. I think the much harder part is to have it from renewable sources. Yes, we can generate a lot of wind and solar power and shut down thermal plants too, if we are willing to suffer blackouts when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow.

The Chinese can build a power plant every week. I'm sure we could if it weren't for the 7 to 10 years for environmental assessments and nuisance law suits for each one. When folks click the AC this summer and nothing happens, I think the green agenda will go back to the back burner - though there may be no gas for it.

But I think the real issue is the grid.

[Koolau]

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Originally Posted by purplesky Moab Utah is not that pricey. All types of people visit Arches and Canyonlands National park. Park passes are not that expensive and plenty of free hiking in Moab. Lodging is reasonable for a 2 or 3 star hotel. The Tesla model Y is middle-class with car payment. Not just rich people. Transportation is changing because it's what younger people want to buy now.

Can't confirm Moab as either pricey or cheap. But GETTING there at $6/gallon is expensive. People who can afford a $60K to 100K Tesla can probably afford the electricity.

[Koolau]

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Originally Posted by target2019 Some threads serve better than others to collect candidates for my category of Incredibly Great Nascient Outstanding Ruling Expert category of posters.

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Originally Posted by RunningBum I see what you did there.

Yes, very clever, now where's that button!