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Old 06-17-2022, 09:15 PM   #121
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Tesla is working on a passenger drone that uses their battery technology so that should be better.

The military has a project for passenger drones that is Probably in use now.
Tesla uses cells made by Panasonic, and for China production, by CATL. I don't see that Tesla has any secret sauce.
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Old 06-17-2022, 09:15 PM   #122
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You are missing the big picture. Your numbers are useless moving forward.

People all over the world want Electric cars or transportation that doesn't require oil. Our friend in Russia just sped up the process and transition away from big oils grip on Europe. It's a start.

Yes, oil will of course be used to produce many things.

Just a few years ago a guy was suing the state of California to try and reverse MPG standards on cars. The automakers went with California.
An example of the Big Oil grip. I just gave you a receipt.

In the United states we will have Electric big trucks at Walmart and PepsiCo and UPS and many other large companies.
These companies have orders with Tesla now.

My focus is mostly on transportation.

You sure are sensitive about big oil. Are you a Saudi Prince living in Paris?
I’m not missing the big picture at all as that wasn’t what we were discussing. And yes while a lot of people want to switch to electric, they aren’t willing to pay more or wait hours to charge their vehicles for long drives. There was a poll not too long ago that asked people if they wanted to reduce co2 usage and about 70% said yes. The next question of those 70% is how much they were willing to spend to reduce their co2 usage. It averaged $5. My point: people want lots of things - doesn’t mean they’ll get them or pay for them.

The electric grid can’t handle 20% electric vehicles (which still doesn’t account for most of the materials and energy for electric today require FFs) much less 90%+, not without thorium nuclear energy, of which there is no development and people won’t pay $1/kwh+ to get reliable sun and wind.

Yes we’ll eventually get there but the laws of thermodynamics simply don’t care about someone’s wants.

It’s not about being sensitive to big oil. You throw out names and slander an industry without understanding even a basic P&L, boom and bust, time value of money and frankly where all your energy comes from. But keep on doing you. If you want to get into a lot of detail, we can chat about supermarket economics, hotel economics or CPG and restaurant economics. I know a lot more about those since I’ve worked high up in all of them!
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Old 06-17-2022, 09:17 PM   #123
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43% is automobiles. 66% is transportation but a third of that is trucking and a lot of the automobile is long distance driving not ideal with charging situation today. The main problem with mass electric vehicles besides charging times is the electric grid. Unless we start mass thorium nuclear right now, the grid today can’t handle it, and solar and wind simply cannot reach more than 25% of energy supply. So even if you shift it to electric, the electric will still otherwise come from FF. And for reasons that aren’t apparent to me, nuclear is shunned by the folks pushing green. We’ll eventually get there but it will take a lot longer than some want.
Yeah, if we can't keep the AC running in the summer time, we aren't gonna charge several million new electric vehicles through the current grid and windmills/solar panels. YMMV
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Old 06-17-2022, 09:46 PM   #124
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Tesla uses cells made by Panasonic, and for China production, by CATL. I don't see that Tesla has any secret sauce.
Tesla has the talent and the money. That’s the secret sauce.

I’m sure Boeing and airbus And Lockheed Martin and Toyota and many other billion dollar corporations are working on passenger carrying drones.

I bet UPS and FedEx are also. I know they are.

Using drones to carry shipping containers would be very useful for the shipping industry. Rural areas near cities.
26 foot containers or even smaller.
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Old 06-17-2022, 09:56 PM   #125
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Yeah, if we can't keep the AC running in the summer time, we aren't gonna charge several million new electric vehicles through the current grid and windmills/solar panels. YMMV
We aren’t going to have several million new electric vehicles anytime soon. It’s going to be a very gradual slow process.
I mean not overnight.

But as quickly as Tesla can deliver new cars they will sell every one of them even with the new price increases.

The average electric car user is not going to be charging their car every day. lol. It’s not a refrigerator in the garage.

Many electric car owners will only need to charge their car once a month.
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Old 06-17-2022, 10:01 PM   #126
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Many electric car owners will only need to charge their car once a month.
you do realize the average American drives 15,000 miles a year, right? Someone that only charges once a month is someone that drives 200-300 miles a month or less, or 2500-3500 miles a year. Yes those folks exist but an extremely tiny % of the US adult population. And it’d still be far cheaper for them to just get a Honda Civic or something and buy the 6 gallons of gas a month.
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Old 06-17-2022, 10:08 PM   #127
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All of them are pretty cool.

Battery range is key - the issue is magnified in aircraft vs in cars since much of the energy needed in an aircraft is to hold the aircraft off the ground. And adding more battery weight is sort of diminishing return whereas in cars, the additional weight is much less critical. YMMV
Future of air travel: Electric powered airships with their huge surface area covered in lightweight solar cell film. The Electric Zeppelin!
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Old 06-17-2022, 10:15 PM   #128
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43% is automobiles. 66% is transportation but a third of that is trucking and a lot of the automobile is long distance driving not ideal with charging situation today. The main problem with mass electric vehicles besides charging times is the electric grid. Unless we start mass thorium nuclear right now, the grid today can’t handle it, and solar and wind simply cannot reach more than 25% of energy supply. So even if you shift it to electric, the electric will still otherwise come from FF. And for reasons that aren’t apparent to me, nuclear is shunned by the folks pushing green. We’ll eventually get there but it will take a lot longer than some want.
Solid state batteries charge in 10 minutes or less and the expected range based on power density is over 500 miles. When cars like this come to market at reasonable prices, it will be game over for the oil industry as we know it.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-ne...s/nio/es7-suv/
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Old 06-17-2022, 10:17 PM   #129
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Solid state batteries charge in 10 minutes or less and the expected range based on power density is over 500 miles. When cars like this come to market at reasonable prices, it will be game over for the oil industry as we know it.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-ne...s/nio/es7-suv/
I hope you are shorting every oil company on the planet, you will be rich!
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Old 06-17-2022, 10:25 PM   #130
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I’m not missing the big picture at all as that wasn’t what we were discussing. And yes while a lot of people want to switch to electric, they aren’t willing to pay more or wait hours to charge their vehicles for long drives. There was a poll not too long ago that asked people if they wanted to reduce co2 usage and about 70% said yes. The next question of those 70% is how much they were willing to spend to reduce their co2 usage. It averaged $5. My point: people want lots of things - doesn’t mean they’ll get them or pay for them.

The electric grid can’t handle 20% electric vehicles (which still doesn’t account for most of the materials and energy for electric today require FFs) much less 90%+, not without thorium nuclear energy, of which there is no development and people won’t pay $1/kwh+ to get reliable sun and wind.

Yes we’ll eventually get there but the laws of thermodynamics simply don’t care about someone’s wants.

It’s not about being sensitive to big oil. You throw out names and slander an industry without understanding even a basic P&L, boom and bust, time value of money and frankly where all your energy comes from. But keep on doing you. If you want to get into a lot of detail, we can chat about supermarket economics, hotel economics or CPG and restaurant economics. I know a lot more about those since I’ve worked high up in all of them!
Dude I gave you a receipt. A specific example of big oil going after the state of California to reverse mpg standards that were set years ago. To fleece consumers at the pump.
Just Google it. The auto manufactures said no we’re good we are going the direction that California wants to go.

Yes the electric car thing is not going to happen overnight and everyone on the planet knows that.
But just recently all the big auto makers have fully committed to electric cars so the train has left the station.

It’s not an attack on Big oil to want an electric vehicle.

Yes you are correct that electric cars are crazy expensive for the most part. The new Ford F150 lightning pick up truck has a reasonable entry level point assuming Ford can keep their cost down and offer that Price out the door.

But all the new cars are expensive now. The new Toyota tundra TRD pro is about $74,000 plus the dealer Mark Ups and a new Toyota sequoia TRD pro Is about $75,000.

Everything is expensive.
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Old 06-17-2022, 10:40 PM   #131
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you do realize the average American drives 15,000 miles a year, right? Someone that only charges once a month is someone that drives 200-300 miles a month or less, or 2500-3500 miles a year. Yes those folks exist but an extremely tiny % of the US adult population. And it’d still be far cheaper for them to just get a Honda Civic or something and buy the 6 gallons of gas a month.
So you really love oil. 🌈🦄 it’s kind of weird how passionate you are about oil. You must work in oil.

The average size American doesn’t really fit comfortably in a Honda Civic. lol
If you visit Disney World in Orlando Florida and people watch you will realize quickly that a Honda Civic is not a transportation option for the average size American.

I was amazed at how slender the French are when I visited Paris. So smaller vehicles definitely work in France.
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Old 06-17-2022, 10:41 PM   #132
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I hope you are shorting every oil company on the planet, you will be rich!
That sector is too toxic for investors. It's far too capital intensive and the margins are too slim. Energy is almost as bad as the airline sector. The energy sector is in a secular bear market and that won't change. Every oil company executive knows that their future is about the same as Eastman Kodak was in the mid 90s when the first digital consumer camera appeared. People scoffed at the 1 mega pixel camera just like many did when Tesla started production. But where is Eastman Kodak now? People think planes and rockets will need kerosene to fly. Then Blue Origin proved that liquid hydrogen also is a viable fuel.

I used to think that solar panels were too expensive and would not be sufficient to meet our power needs. But in 2012 we installed a new generation of solar panels and micro-inverters for a net cost of just under $16K after tax credit. Our system generates 11 megawatts per year and we consume about 10 megawatts. Our electricity bill was $3600 in 2011. We broke even after 4.5 years and have an $1200 credit balance in our account from overproduction over the past 10 years of operation. Meanwhile rates have increased about 38% since 2012. We just need to add four more panels to our system to generate sufficient electricity to charge an EV.
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Old 06-18-2022, 04:03 AM   #133
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Future of air travel: Electric powered airships with their huge surface area covered in lightweight solar cell film. The Electric Zeppelin!
They only fly in the day time??
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Old 06-18-2022, 04:28 AM   #134
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you do realize the average American drives 15,000 miles a year, right? Someone that only charges once a month is someone that drives 200-300 miles a month or less, or 2500-3500 miles a year. Yes those folks exist but an extremely tiny % of the US adult population. And it’d still be far cheaper for them to just get a Honda Civic or something and buy the 6 gallons of gas a month.
My wife and I have fairly new (3yrs) mid-sized SUVs with less than 10k miles each and average about 25mpg. That is about 3.5k miles/year so I guess we are in that group since we retired. They won't be traded anytime soon for another car whether it is electric or not. Maybe once we are no longer able to drive in the future we will trade in for cars that are self driving if they are available.

Cheers!
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Old 06-18-2022, 04:31 AM   #135
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We aren’t going to have several million new electric vehicles anytime soon. It’s going to be a very gradual slow process.
I mean not overnight.

But as quickly as Tesla can deliver new cars they will sell every one of them even with the new price increases.

The average electric car user is not going to be charging their car every day. lol. It’s not a refrigerator in the garage.

Many electric car owners will only need to charge their car once a month.
This site showing a chart of plug-ins (EVs and plug-in hybrids) suggests a rapid growth phase. Not "millions" today, but soon if we are to believe all the car companies vowing half or all electric by 2030.

https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/a...00%20in%202021.

And Tesla IS selling them as fast as they can make them - as are most other EV producers. This suggests rapid growth - much faster than the growth of electrical production when you consider that coal and older nukes are being taken off line regularly now. These plants are only being replaced by wind/solar AFAIK. Germany has learned the hard way that you can't fool mother nature. They were very successful at replacing old technology with renewables - but they found out that wind and solar are not reliable sources.

At this point, we are under producing electricity or else there wouldn't be official warnings of black outs coming. It would appear the only thing "saving us" from longer, deeper electrical shortages is that EV companies can still only build them so fast - it's not lack of demand, apparently.

We are potentially creating the perfect storm of rapidly increasing demand vs decreasing (reliable) supply. Not a good situation to be in. YMMV
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Old 06-18-2022, 04:45 AM   #136
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So you really love oil. 🌈🦄 it’s kind of weird how passionate you are about oil. You must work in oil.

The average size American doesn’t really fit comfortably in a Honda Civic. lol
If you visit Disney World in Orlando Florida and people watch you will realize quickly that a Honda Civic is not a transportation option for the average size American.

I was amazed at how slender the French are when I visited Paris. So smaller vehicles definitely work in France.
Wait. What? What does this have to do with EVs? Or oil?

By the way, I fit into a Civic much easier than I do into a Model 3 Tesla - whatever that has to do with the price of rice.
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Old 06-18-2022, 05:00 AM   #137
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Using drones to carry shipping containers would be very useful for the shipping industry. Rural areas near cities.
26 foot containers or even smaller.
Yeah, that's what I want. Several thousand unmanned 25 ton shipping containers zipping overhead all day. What could possibly go wrong?
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Old 06-18-2022, 05:46 AM   #138
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Solid state batteries charge in 10 minutes or less and the expected range based on power density is over 500 miles. When cars like this come to market at reasonable prices, it will be game over for the oil industry as we know it.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-ne...s/nio/es7-suv/
Yes, as I've considered getting an EV, with the range that EVs get it wold be practical as a day-to-day vehice for many people. The only hang up is long trips like our annual multi-day trip to and from Florida... it's just not yet practical for trips like that so I'll stick with hybrids or gas until they solve that problem. If I could fill up in 10 minutes and filling stations were readily available then EV would be a stronger possibility for us.
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Old 06-18-2022, 06:22 AM   #139
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Yes, as I've considered getting an EV, with the range that EVs get it wold be practical as a day-to-day vehice for many people. The only hang up is long trips like our annual multi-day trip to and from Florida... it's just not yet practical for trips like that so I'll stick with hybrids or gas until they solve that problem. If I could fill up in 10 minutes and filling stations were readily available then EV would be a stronger possibility for us.
Heh, heh, then there is the little issue of providing electricity to all those new fast chargers. We have a 100++ year old system of supplying fuel to cars/trucks - and it "breaks down" every few years (shortages and/or inelastic demand - price issues like now, refinery shut-downs, wars, etc.) Why do we think our relatively new fast-charger network will fare better? We've all been fascinated by the horror stories of power shortages and even power overages in Cali. Not to be overly pessimistic, but I think we'll have intermittent issues supplying all those new EVs for the foreseeable future. Hope I'm wrong and YMMV.
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Old 06-18-2022, 08:36 AM   #140
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They only fly in the day time??
OK, we'll add a battery or two for the night time if you insist.
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