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07-31-2016, 01:28 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,895
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Investment Strategy
Will the upcoming election change your investment strategy in any way, shape or form ?
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Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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07-31-2016, 01:30 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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No. I stay in conservative mode.
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Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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07-31-2016, 02:01 PM
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#3
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,346
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This is an interesting topic, as long as it stays focused on investing and FIRE and avoids politics or partisan comments.
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When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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07-31-2016, 02:05 PM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Lexington
Posts: 84
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Nope. I don't need access to my retirement accounts in the next 4 years. Also, I have found that the markets are going to do what they are going to do, regardless of whether I like the person in the White House or not.
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07-31-2016, 02:19 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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Which upcoming election
Whether its a Turkish coup (an election of sorts, no?), British Brexit, Chinese central committee appointments or US president / congress, I don't care.
Just like I don't speculate on what any federal reserve (Japan, EU, US) might do or not do. Or where natural disasters might strike next.
It's out of my sphere of influence and impossible to predict, so better to invest so that you're outcome agnostic. Or just ignore it.
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07-31-2016, 02:29 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,244
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No, not the election.... but I will be keeping track of any proposals after we know who the president is... even thought I do not think anything major will change...
Also, your investment style should be consistent with whomever is in the WH... it is the profits of the companies that matter... and since most of my investments are in MFs, I do not look at individual companies...
Now, will the outcome affect me in other ways... I am sure it will... and I will be looking to mitigate any negative outcomes if I am able to do so... but like most things, sometimes there is little that can be done...
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07-31-2016, 02:30 PM
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#7
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: San Diego
Posts: 880
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I hope this is not too political but I do get nervous when any politician talks up protectionism. However, presidents have no power to implement tariffs, only talk about them, only congress has this power. So no, I don't worry much about the election in terms of my allocation or investment strategy. And if it ever looked like congress was going to vote in large tariffs, it would probably be too late to reallocate anyway, the damage would have already been done, and priced into the market.
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Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.
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07-31-2016, 02:32 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
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Not going to do anything.
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07-31-2016, 02:33 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
Will the upcoming election change your investment strategy in any way, shape or form ?
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I will be moving allocation to 51% wooden nickels, 49% brass tacks, and healthy portion of what's left to snake bite pharmaceuticals.
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07-31-2016, 03:14 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 5,003
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No. It is just another unknown in a world of unknowns. To try and predict the effect vs that of everything else is folly.
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"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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07-31-2016, 03:26 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 2,330
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No change here either.
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07-31-2016, 03:40 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
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Yes. If the winner starts talking up cutting SS I'll move my AA more heavily to pitchforks and axes.
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“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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07-31-2016, 03:57 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,150
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No. My strategy is to just rebalance once a year regardless of outside events.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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07-31-2016, 04:17 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SW Ohio
Posts: 14,404
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No plans to change anything. But I do think it is prudent to, over the long term, re-evaluate the relative competitiveness of national economies, including our own, and to shift allocations if warranted. This wouldn't be necessary to do as a conscious exercise if global capital was entirely free to move, but it isn't and so we can't always count on market forces to fairly reflect the underlying value of stocks worldwide. For example, domestic investors in the PRC can't seek many outside investment options, and some foreign money can't readily be moved out--this inflates Chinese share prices. There are other mechanisms that could (and maybe already are) result in an overvaluation of US stocks (eg. US PE10s are higher than many in Europe. It's useful to deliberately consider whether that is an honest reflection of likely future growth prospects in each market or not).
There are clearly steps that politicians can take to change the competitiveness of US companies relative to foreign ones, and it would be rational to adjust allocations to US stocks if that happens. Or maybe before, if you feel you know more than the market does.
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07-31-2016, 05:25 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,099
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I was going to attempt jokes about the gov't declaring bankruptcy or knocking down big business, but realized it could be viewed as too political.
So my choice is to carry on with my plans for re-allocating our holdings...
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07-31-2016, 06:10 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,376
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No change for us.
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If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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07-31-2016, 06:20 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,570
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Either way, I don't have a good feeling about it. Thankfully, I've learned to ignore my feelings when it comes to my Investment Strategy.
Adopting a more conservative strategy due to appreciated values, another year off my life, and frankly, the ridiculous valuations on stocks and bonds.
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You know that suit they burying you in? Thar ain’t no pockets in that suit, boy.
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07-31-2016, 07:45 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
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The last few years, I strayed from the path of indexing and had committed too much to O&G oil and health care. That worked great--until it didn't. I did not exit oil and gas when I should have and paid a price. My last focus has been health care, which has still done well.
All may remember that health care/pharma took a big hit when Bill Clinton was elected (and presented John Greaney (long may he wave) with the golden opportunity to buy depressed pharma and retire early.
Simplistically, there is a 50/50 chance that Mrs. Clinton will win and perhaps health equities will take another hit. Accordingly, I have dumped my health fund and returned to index funds, specifically SCV.
Otherwise, no change.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
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I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
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07-31-2016, 07:55 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,899
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
Will the upcoming election change your investment strategy in any way, shape or form ?
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What are your thoughts?
For example, if one candidate was considered to be good for a particular sector, what could you do about it?
Lets say the pro sector candidate won. Then what? Do you think you know something the rest of the market doesn't know? Then how can you be so sure? And if they all know, that sector will be up at the open after the returns are in.
How would you maneuver (out-maneuver everyone else?), even if you had these beliefs?
-ERD50
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08-01-2016, 05:04 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: The Great Wide Open
Posts: 3,804
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Regardless of who wins, Congress will be deadlocked because of lack of a 60 vote majority in the Senate, just like now.
My travels in the past two years by car/plane across the US, show me that there is plenty of infrastructure replacement going on. Delays and traffic are everywhere.
My investment strategy is still the same and will most likely stay the same.
However, I do watch the Aldi-Dollar General-Big Lots Parking Lots, as I listen to the Fed, as indicators.
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