Investments

[djr59]

Does anyone follow any advice from any of these online newsletters or anything like that? I have always done my own investments but as I get older I wonder if I should rely on a person or follow some philosophy other than my own.

Thoughts?

 

[nun]

Many people here are "Bogleheads".

 

[travelover]

Anyone that could consistently beat the market would not waste their time writing newsletters or giving seminars. Think about it.

 

[djr59]

Is that boglehead.org?

 

[retire2020]

https://www.bogleheads.org/

 

[FiveDriver]

Yes, I do. For years I've subscribed to The Chartist, Dan Sullivan's Newsletter. He has a very good track record over the long term, receiving favorable writeups in the financial press. His use of Charts appeals to my Engineering background -- I don't pretend to understand all the proprietary algorithms.....but his Newsletter has some very cogent Market Commentary. There's not a lot of jumping in and out of the Market, but his calls had subscribers safely in Cash during the Downturns in 2000 and 2008. That alone has saved me a small fortune.

I use The Chartist's Managed Account to handle a small portion of my IRA, and mirror their moves with the remainder using Mutual Funds & ETF's.

 

[W2R]

I am pretty much a "Boglehead", at least to some extent although perhaps not entirely.

https://www.bogleheads.org/

Bogleheads has a great book list, too.

https://www.bogleheads.org/readbooks.htm

I started by reading half a dozen books from their list, carefully and thoughtfully. I didn't just want to get advice - - I wanted to *understand* the advice and make sure I wasn't being misled. There are some terrific investment books on the booklist and I would recommend any of them, whatever appeals to you.

Then I made a tentative plan, then discussed it on the bogleheads forum, which is here:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php

I got some great advice there that helped me to "tweak" my plan. Then I put it in place, bought the funds, and now I don't change things except to rebalance.

 

[nun]

I got some great advice there that helped me to "tweak" my plan. Then I put it in place, bought the funds, and now I don't change things except to rebalance.

I'm also pretty much a Boglehead (I admit to owning some Wellesley) and I have a 60/40 allocation. Right now I just put money into Vanguard Balanced Index and I've stopped rebalancing the rest of my portfolio. I reinvest all dividends and plan to let my equity percentage drift up through retirement. Things are on autopilot and I don't really plan to do any managing of my portfolio.

 

[target2019]

Does anyone follow any advice from any of these online newsletters or anything like that? I have always done my own investments but as I get older I wonder if I should rely on a person or follow some philosophy other than my own.

Thoughts?

Here, most follow an indexed Asset Allocation. A minority have a stash set aside for aggressive speculation.
I guess.

 

[mickeyd]

OP, What online newsletters are you referring to?

 

[djr59]

I don't subscribe to any. Pretty much been winging it on my own. I don't asset allocate. I don't follow any advice. I read seeking alpha a lot. I buy what I think will do well. I like dollar cost averaging. I have very large share builder accounts where I pick good blue chips and other stocks I like and average in every month.

Recently I sold a lot of stocks right before Election Day thinking it was going to negative for market. Boy was I wrong. I am like 50 stocks. 30 bonds and 20 cash. I have a portfolio of about $3.8mil investable. I am just looking as I get older and think about retiring if I should start follow a methodology or a person who has more time to research. I do some research but I also have been making mistakes too recently as I just don't have the sharp brain I used too.

 

[REWahoo]

I don't subscribe to any. Pretty much been winging it on my own. I don't asset allocate. I don't follow any advice. I read seeking alpha a lot. I buy what I think will do well. I like dollar cost averaging. I have very large share builder accounts where I pick good blue chips and other stocks I like and average in every month.

Recently I sold a lot of stocks right before Election Day thinking it was going to negative for market. Boy was I wrong. I am like 50 stocks. 30 bonds and 20 cash. I have a portfolio of about $3.8mil investable. I am just looking as I get older and think about retiring if I should start follow a methodology or a person who has more time to research. I do some research but I also have been making mistakes too recently as I just don't have the sharp brain I used too.

You should spend some quality time on bogleheads.org before you hurt yourself.

 

[nun]

I don't subscribe to any. Pretty much been winging it on my own. I don't asset allocate. I don't follow any advice. I read seeking alpha a lot. I buy what I think will do well. I like dollar cost averaging. I have very large share builder accounts where I pick good blue chips and other stocks I like and average in every month.

Recently I sold a lot of stocks right before Election Day thinking it was going to negative for market. Boy was I wrong. I am like 50 stocks. 30 bonds and 20 cash. I have a portfolio of about $3.8mil investable. I am just looking as I get older and think about retiring if I should start follow a methodology or a person who has more time to research. I do some research but I also have been making mistakes too recently as I just don't have the sharp brain I used too.

Many people here use Index funds and don't stock pick...the idea of "seeking alpha" goes against their investment approach.

 

[djr59]

Yeah I think I need to get on the "set it and forget it" mindset. I probably own 50 individual stocks.

 

[DrRoy]

I don't subscribe to any. Pretty much been winging it on my own. I don't asset allocate. I don't follow any advice. I read seeking alpha a lot. I buy what I think will do well.

Recently I sold a lot of stocks right before Election Day thinking it was going to negative for market. Boy was I wrong.

I am just looking as I get older and think about retiring if I should start follow a methodology or a person who has more time to research. I do some research but I also have been making mistakes too recently as I just don't have the sharp brain I used too.

I have, over several decades, tried various approaches, strategies, a FA or two, all to little avail. I got the Chartist for a time, until Sullivan suspended it for a while after a bullish prediction went bad. I forget what year that was. I also read Seeking Alpha, but only for interest, bot to make any specific investment moves. I am now primarily an Indexer. I found that the strategies, methodologies, and advice in the long term caused my returns to lag the general market. If I were to have made a move based on my expectations for the election, I would have, like you, reduced my equity exposure. I did not make any move and because my experience has been that you cannot predict the right thing to do so do not try. Your "mistakes" are just the inevitable result of trying to know the unknowable.

 

[REWahoo]

I probably own 50 individual stocks.

Yikes, trying to follow 50 stocks and figure out if/when to buy or sell is far too much like work for many of us here. A handful of low expense mutual funds does the job, is far easier to manage and much less stressful on the cranial muscle.

 

[Golden sunsets]

The financial academics espouse the philosophy that owning individual stocks is "uncompensated risk".


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[djr59]

I tend to agree but for me it's a little bit of a hobby. With that said I will probably put bulk in funds and play with a small amount just because I like to play the market.

 

[Badger]

I pretty much have it on autopilot. IRAs in Wellington and Wellesley with a handfull of stocks for fun. Dividends for all are thrown into MM funds for harvesting. I can't see making any changes and even have notes to my wife and myself to not touch the plan in case I kick the bucket or lose my marbles.

Cheers!

 

[Koolau]

There's not a lot of jumping in and out of the Market, but his calls had subscribers safely in Cash during the Downturns in 2000 and 2008. That alone has saved me a small fortune.

Heh, heh, I did that without any advice. Maybe I need to start a newsletter.

Seriously, I've tired some money managers and some so-called "financial planners." I've done at least as well on my own without having to pay for my own advice. I figure that saving the fees already give me a big head-start in beating the "experts." And that way, when I don't do well, I can blame myself for not doing well instead of blaming myself for paying someone else to not do well for me.

I'm not totally against getting some help, but always keep in mind that it's your money and no one cares more about it than you do. Nor will anyone work as cheaply as you do to invest it. As always, YMMV.

 

[DrRoy]

Seriously, I've tired some money managers and some so-called "financial planners." I've done at least as well on my own without having to pay for my own advice. I figure that saving the fees already give me a big head-start in beating the "experts." And that way, when I don't do well, I can blame myself for not doing well instead of blaming myself for paying someone else to not do well for me.

I'm not totally against getting some help, but always keep in mind that it's your money and no one cares more about it than you do. Nor will anyone work as cheaply as you do to invest it.

+1 When I had a FA I still invested much of my investments myself. My returns were better so I took it back.

 

[Dawg52]

Recently I sold a lot of stocks right before Election Day thinking it was going to negative for market. Boy was I wrong. I am like 50 stocks. 30 bonds and 20 cash. I have a portfolio of about $3.8mil investable. I am just looking as I get older and think about retiring if I should start follow a methodology or a person who has more time to research. I do some research but I also have been making mistakes too recently as I just don't have the sharp brain I used too.

With a portfolio of $3.8 mil, you obviously have done something right. But as we age....many prefer an autopilot approach. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[Danmar]

Don't read any newsletters and don't follow the Bogleheads philosophy. Buy individual stocks and, most probably through luck, have outperformed appropriate indexes for years. Wouldn't recommend this approach to others though. Can't go wrong with Bogle approach in long run although I have no plans to adopt. Would be too costly with my imbedded cap gains.

 

[target2019]

Maybe start to simplify by exchanging a few individual stocks for a sector ETF that fits your goals. Start adding cash back in to a few ETFs. Not very exciting, though.

 

[pb4uski]

I think to do individual stocks "right" requires much more reading of 10-Ks, 10-Qs and other very boring documents than I am interested in doing. While I got paid to write that crap during my career, I'll be damned if I'll waste time reading it in retirement.

I did have an advisor who picked stocks for me in my 20s and we had some winners and some losers. I became an avowed indexer in the early 80s and have never looked back.

While I slice and dice a bit more than I need to for entertainment, but I could easily get away with Total Stock, Total International Stock, Total Bond and Total International Bond if I wanted to and would be perfectly content.