Is 10-12% YTD loss in line with typical Moderate PF?

[W2R]

Yes, I think that sounds reasonable. (Probably, I'm no expert.)

I have a conservative portfolio of mostly broad index funds, along with some cash and cash equivalents. So, it doesn't go up or down very much.

My YTD loss is 10%.

[Dtail]

At 43% stocks, down 9.62% YTD. No exposure to bond funds or international stocks.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Using the Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX, -18.87%) as a guide on equities, and Total Bond Market Index (BND, -9.27%) for bond. Second set of columns is if "Bonds" were cash.

[MichealKnight]

And - egg on my face - a bulk of it is me stepping away from my original plan - - sticking with boring dividend paying blue chips. Stuff like my KO, XOM, PG, MD - sure some of it is down - but not that much. I did some stupid things - like MTTR and some NVDA.

Right now I'm wondering if MonkeyPox will Rev up - - - and I wonder - am I sitting here, wondering "Hmmm is that China Covid thing gonna affect my portfolio?" some 2 year ago. I'm tempted - so tempted to sell 30% of my holdings -and if I miss upswing I miss it. Again - I"m tempted not acting on it.

Conversely....

I have 4 years of living expenses in cash. I'm really tempted to take 1 year of it....and if SP500 hits 3600 - - - put that cash in and maybe make up some of my losses if there's a rebound of any sort.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichealKnight And - egg on my face - a bulk of it is me stepping away from my original plan - - sticking with boring dividend paying blue chips. Stuff like my KO, XOM, PG, MD - sure some of it is down - but not that much. I did some stupid things - like MTTR and some NVDA. Right now I'm wondering if MonkeyPox will Rev up - - - and I wonder - am I sitting here, wondering "Hmmm is that China Covid thing gonna affect my portfolio?" some 2 year ago. I'm tempted - so tempted to sell 30% of my holdings -and if I miss upswing I miss it. Again - I"m tempted not acting on it. Conversely.... I have 4 years of living expenses in cash. I'm really tempted to take 1 year of it....and if SP500 hits 3600 - - - put that cash in and maybe make up some of my losses if there's a rebound of any sort.

Just be aware of the fundamental of negative numbers. Let's say I decide that today is the day to invest my cash in equities, because I think they have bottomed down approximately 20% from their peak. Now suppose I am "off' by a bit, that the real bottom is down 40% from the peak. Did I lose 20%? NO, I've lost 25% (60-80)/80. It gets worse with bigger losses. Let's say this ends up matching the 2008/09 great recession (down 49%). Your investment here would result in (51-80)/80 = 36% loss.

[mikes425]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank I think your losses are in line with a typical moderate port this year.

Thanks. I guess what's throwing me and probably many other investors is not so much the equity volatility but the bond/bond fund losses 'this time.' Every correction is unique in one respect or another but I have to say bond funds as ballast and insurance -under current circumstances have not worked as well as anticipated. Still I respect that with much damage already done (in both sectors) there's some likelihood that returns will ultimately be better in holding them for the long run and riding it out- to invoke the tired cliche.

[mikes425]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrfeh If you learned anything from 2008, you should know that doing nothing is the best course of action. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogl...g_start-up_kit

Yes that is precisely my reference because it's the only other similar event I've experienced in my investment 'lifetime.' Unfortunately I didn't just ' do nothing' that time and no doubt suffered the consequences of never fully restoring my equity allocation higher than 40% -- until the past five years or so. Missed a lot of capital appreciation, but feel I did reasonably well making up for it and my risk tolerance now is much higher. Thanks.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Car-Guy Only down <1% YTD but I've been in cash "most of the time" in my IRA speculation account. I got lucky on a few bigger swing trades (XOM and CVX) that helped but still down a little. In my 401K investment account, I'm up almost 2% YTD but it's all in fixed income.

I too have a fair amount of cash. How do you "view" your cash's value since we've experienced significant inflation. Yes, I know that nominally, the number hasn't gone down, but the buying power certainly has (I'm just glad I don't spend all my cash on fuel!) It's reasonably easy to calculate what our MFs value (in cash) are but how much is that cash-equivalent worth?? My mind strays to these things every so often. YMMV

[Koolau]

Oh, and to OPs original question, I think 10 to 12% loss within a moderate PF is probably about average. I haven't figured my exactly, but that sounds about right. I think it's gonna get worse before it gets better. SO far, my particular PF has been doing a bit better because my megacorp stock has been doing well during the unpleasantness around us.

I think the thing to keep in mind is that it's always come back eventually (let's all hope we have "eventually" time to wait.)

[mrfeh]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koolau I too have a fair amount of cash. How do you "view" your cash's value since we've experienced significant inflation. Yes, I know that nominally, the number hasn't gone down, but the buying power certainly has (I'm just glad I don't spend all my cash on fuel!) It's reasonably easy to calculate what our MFs value (in cash) are but how much is that cash-equivalent worth?? My mind strays to these things every so often. YMMV

The value of your cash doesn't change. Your expenses are increasing.

[Locotony]

I'm down about the same as the OP 10-12% in 2008 I lost roughly 40% of value and it recovered and increased to highs I had never had before by 2018 when I FIRED now I have enough cash or cash equivalents set aside that I could go 5-6 years without touching my PF unless I decide to purchase a new house or something like that which would drain my cash. I know a lot of folks here don't agree with having a large cash stash but IMHO If you have a good stash it makes stomaching the huge swings we have been seeing easier to stomach knowing you can sit back for a few years and wait for things to recover

[street]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Locotony I'm down about the same as the OP 10-12% in 2008 I lost roughly 40% of value and it recovered and increased to highs I had never had before by 2018 when I FIRED now I have enough cash or cash equivalents set aside that I could go 5-6 years without touching my PF unless I decide to purchase a new house or something like that which would drain my cash. I know a lot of folks here don't agree with having a large cash stash but IMHO If you have a good stash it makes stomaching the huge swings we have been seeing easier to stomach knowing you can sit back for a few years and wait for things to recover

I like your plan a lot and yes it isn't a plan that many like.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Locotony I'm down about the same as the OP 10-12% in 2008 I lost roughly 40% of value and it recovered and increased to highs I had never had before by 2018 when I FIRED now I have enough cash or cash equivalents set aside that I could go 5-6 years without touching my PF unless I decide to purchase a new house or something like that which would drain my cash. I know a lot of folks here don't agree with having a large cash stash but IMHO If you have a good stash it makes stomaching the huge swings we have been seeing easier to stomach knowing you can sit back for a few years and wait for things to recover

I don't think there's that much argument against that much cash, for anyone trying to be somewhat conservative. Six years of cash/equiv, at a 3.3% WD rate, is ~less than 20% cash. Now, many would say most of that should be in bonds for a higher long term return, but it's not really so far off from the more mainstream view, IMO.

-ERD50

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrfeh The value of your cash doesn't change. Your expenses are increasing.

I guess it's all in the way you look at it. I "discount" the value of my 401(k) for the average taxes I'll owe when I do my planning. I was just wondering how to think of cash in terms of what it will buy now vs when I looked at it, say, a year ago. Perhaps it doesn't matter. Just my mind racing in light of troubling financial issues we're currently facing. YMMV

[tmm99]

I haven't calculated my RoR yet, but my NW is down by about 10%...

[copyright1997reloaded]

My rough calculation YTD as of 5/31/22: Down 8.7% overall (net worth) on an approximately 51% equity, 42%, 7% commodity/PM allocation. It was worse a couple weeks ago.

I am still w*rking but have adjusted for 403B Roth contributions YTD. I don't have a budget, but spend everything PLUS in terms of take home pay. (That is, some smallish drawdown.) So the above are "close enough" in terms of where things stand.

Almost all of my fixed is in cash, cash equivalents, i-Bonds, TIPS/TIPS funds. Of the fixed, only the TIPs / TIPS Fund have been impacted in terms of valuation (down about 5.9% YTD).

[USGrant1962]

I was down almost exactly 10.0% through the end of May with 60/40 AA.

[FLSUnFIRE]

My NW is down 8.8% YTD, almost all equities (cash ~10% and slowly decreasing as I spend. I expect it will stabilize at 4-5% over the long term but I'm still new at this being FIREd thing so who knows). My earnings from my fun job (bike tours) was .005% of my starting NW and I've spent .85% so investment performance would be approx -7.7% YTD adjusting for those. (easier than pulling everything and weighting returns)



Not too upsetting considering I've funded 5 months of expenses from it during that time as well. Actually, seeing that I've only spent .85% makes me feel a little bit better given all the gloom and doom -I am being a bit stingier than I planned as retiring into this market is a bit scary... but SO much better than working.

[mickeyd]

Pick an AA and stay the course.

[latexman]

According to Fido, my 401k (60/40) as of 5/31/2022 has a -12.36% Rate of Return. I'm still contributing, and no withdrawals.