|
|
Is 10-12% YTD loss in line with typical Moderate PF?
05-20-2022, 01:27 PM
|
#1
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Erie
Posts: 239
|
Is 10-12% YTD loss in line with typical Moderate PF?
Could use some reassurance or consolation tho i presume many share my pain.. As a freelance sole proprietor Having 'semi-retired' more or less (scaled back a lot on work) in the last year or so I watched 50/50 moderate PF reach its all -time high valuation in late 2020 in the realm of 2.4M. Subsequently YTD the slow tedious daily grind downward is testing my tolerance. With zero debt a modest annual spending level in the realm of 45-50 My investment assets as of today are approaching a loss of 260k YTD., i.e., nearing -11%. On a positive note dividends do generate about 50-55k/year. FWIW, SS will likely be 22k/year-ish, if I wait til 66-67. Firecalc seems to suggest I shouldn't worry much using several different variations of portfolio composition.
I made the error of going too conservative too early for my age and never fully getting back into equities after jumping out of the chaos of 2008-09. My chief question is realistically just how much further this sell-off is likely to go...and for planning purposes, what kind of timeframe folks similarly allocated are anticipating for a reversal and how many years I may be looking at to 'get back to even.' An FA friend suggests if I don't need the $$ in the next five years, i should be okay...it's just the ultimate in s*tty timing when a bear market forms right at the outset of ones traditional retirement age.
Thanks!
Mike
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
05-20-2022, 01:41 PM
|
#2
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 900
|
Reassurance? Sounds like you are good if your dividends are covering your spend. Just turn off the noise.
Yes, it sucks to watch the market tank when you retire. In my case, this is year 1 of basically full retirement. I did plan for some level of the SHTF, but it still sucks to watch. I WISH I only lost $260K on paper as opposed to $260K x __. None the less, its only on paper and I have 10 years of safety in my plan with many levers to pull as needed.
Hang tough with the rest of us!
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 01:41 PM
|
#3
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 691
|
The short answer is that no one knows.
Since you never fully got back into equities, presumably some of that cash is sitting around still, maybe in a bond fund... I'd be thinking about how much of that you want to put back into stocks for long term growth, and start that slowly over the next 2-3 years. My guess is that it will take a while for inflation to slow to the point that stock markets will reverse their downward trend.
__________________
--At what age does spending less now in order to have more later stop making sense?
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 02:12 PM
|
#4
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 620
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikes425
Could use some reassurance or consolation tho i presume many share my pain.. As a freelance sole proprietor Having 'semi-retired' more or less (scaled back a lot on work) in the last year or so I watched 50/50 moderate PF reach its all -time high valuation in late 2020 in the realm of 2.4M. Subsequently YTD the slow tedious daily grind downward is testing my tolerance. With zero debt a modest annual spending level in the realm of 45-50 My investment assets as of today are approaching a loss of 260k YTD., i.e., nearing -11%. On a positive note dividends do generate about 50-55k/year. FWIW, SS will likely be 22k/year-ish, if I wait til 66-67. Firecalc seems to suggest I shouldn't worry much using several different variations of portfolio composition.
I made the error of going too conservative too early for my age and never fully getting back into equities after jumping out of the chaos of 2008-09. My chief question is realistically just how much further this sell-off is likely to go...and for planning purposes, what kind of timeframe folks similarly allocated are anticipating for a reversal and how many years I may be looking at to 'get back to even.' An FA friend suggests if I don't need the $$ in the next five years, i should be okay...it's just the ultimate in s*tty timing when a bear market forms right at the outset of ones traditional retirement age.
Thanks!
Mike
|
Nobody knows how much further it's going to go down, and nobody knows how long it'll take or even whether it'll ever "get back to even".
Since your income is more than enough to cover your expenses, plus you'll have SS coming on-line later, you're safe.
At times like this, having x number of years' worth of expense in cash is prudent, whatever the inflation rate. You can ride out market downturns without being forced to sell. It may be a performance drag during good times, but it's a great tonic for a good night's sleep during bad times.
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 02:47 PM
|
#5
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,495
|
Sounds about what our shrinkage has been. Rarely look any more, just wince. SS and pension more than enough for us unless we're traveling, gifting to kids, or donating to charity large. Only thing I'm going to do is move my last year of Roth conversion to up my equity position. Several months ago I sold almost all my bond funds in the tiRA because I couldn't see any way they wouldn't be a loss, so lotsa cash there. In spite of conversions for many years at about what my MRD's would have been (and not triggered too much tax or Medicare increase) I still have about 2/3 in the tIRA and 1/3 in the Roths. Roths would be last out so they're all equity. Likely for grandkid's college and kids.
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 02:50 PM
|
#6
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
Is 10-12% YTD loss in line with typical Moderate PF?
Yes, that should be about the norm. You have lots of company.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 03:21 PM
|
#7
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,350
|
I'm down right around 12% YTD so that seems about right. Remember that it's only a loss if you sell. Most of your savings you will not be selling for many years. Ideally you would have had a few years saved in cash to ride out a big fall in equities but you should be fine anyway. Keep the withdrawals to a minimum during this downturn if needed.
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 04:37 PM
|
#8
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Erie
Posts: 239
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronc879
I'm down right around 12% YTD so that seems about right. Remember that it's only a loss if you sell. Most of your savings you will not be selling for many years. Ideally you would have had a few years saved in cash to ride out a big fall in equities but you should be fine anyway. Keep the withdrawals to a minimum during this downturn if needed.
|
Thanks to you and other responders too. Pretty much fully invested except for a short term cash reserve of 6-8 months expenses-- tho have a fair amount in short term and ultra ST bond positions which i have traditionally thought of as Cash. I think the fact that losses are all 'on paper' until one sells- as you point out, is always good to keep in mind. As for expenses/withdrawals, I'm pretty frugal. I think i need to stop watching the daily -or even weekly - fluctuations and chill.
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 07:52 PM
|
#9
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 215
|
Remember that you need less than 2.4% of your current portfolio for this year's expenses. The other 97.6% of your portfolio still has time to recover.
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 07:55 PM
|
#10
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 97
|
I think your losses are in line with a typical moderate port this year.
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 08:14 PM
|
#11
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,884
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikes425
Could use some reassurance or consolation tho i presume many share my pain.. As a freelance sole proprietor Having 'semi-retired' more or less (scaled back a lot on work) in the last year or so I watched 50/50 moderate PF reach its all -time high valuation in late 2020 in the realm of 2.4M. Subsequently YTD the slow tedious daily grind downward is testing my tolerance. With zero debt a modest annual spending level in the realm of 45-50 My investment assets as of today are approaching a loss of 260k YTD., i.e., nearing -11%. On a positive note dividends do generate about 50-55k/year. FWIW, SS will likely be 22k/year-ish, if I wait til 66-67. Firecalc seems to suggest I shouldn't worry much using several different variations of portfolio composition.
I made the error of going too conservative too early for my age and never fully getting back into equities after jumping out of the chaos of 2008-09. My chief question is realistically just how much further this sell-off is likely to go...and for planning purposes, what kind of timeframe folks similarly allocated are anticipating for a reversal and how many years I may be looking at to 'get back to even.' An FA friend suggests if I don't need the $$ in the next five years, i should be okay...it's just the ultimate in s*tty timing when a bear market forms right at the outset of ones traditional retirement age.
Thanks!
Mike
|
If you learned anything from 2008, you should know that doing nothing is the best course of action.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogl...g_start-up_kit
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 08:21 PM
|
#12
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,514
|
10 to 12 percent lose would be good news. I'm sure mine is way more than that now. I hear the noise of a long time to recover and going to drop a lot more before it ends, but no one knows for sure.
Cash is paramount in these times to weather the storm.
|
|
|
05-20-2022, 08:45 PM
|
#13
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 859
|
My total net worth (not including real-estate property) is down 12.5% from the beginning of the year. I thought I was hedged but I was also hurt by the bond market. How bad you got hurt depends a lot on what you got. Generally the stuff that went up the most got hit the hardest.
|
|
|
05-21-2022, 05:41 AM
|
#14
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,719
|
I've used this fund in a 401(k) - but that is all converted now. American Funds American Balanced Fund Class R-6 (RLBGX) - is -11.20% YTD according to Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RLBGX/
Quote:
Fund summary: The investment seeks conservation of capital, current income and long-term growth of capital and income. The fund uses a balanced approach to invest in a broad range of securities, including common stocks and investment-grade bonds. It also invests in securities issued and guaranteed by the U.S. government and by federal agencies and instrumentalities. In addition, the fund may invest a portion of its assets in common stocks, most of which have a history of paying dividends, bonds and other securities of issuers domiciled outside the United States.
|
It's an active fund, with a lower expense ratio. There are other ways to compute average return of a 50/50 portfolio, but I'm too lazy to do that. You could average out a 50/50 mix of VWELX and VWIAX (Wellington managed funds), or choose a multitude of other benchmarks.
Your investment company should have an exact performance number for you. Not that you'd want to look at it each day.
|
|
|
05-21-2022, 05:59 AM
|
#15
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,408
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
...There are other ways to compute average return of a 50/50 portfolio, but I'm too lazy to do that. You could average out a 50/50 mix of VWELX and VWIAX (Wellington managed funds),..
Your investment company should have an exact performance number for you. Not that you'd want to look at it each day.
|
This is what we have done with our tIRAs. One of us Wellsley and the other Wellington. In taxable accounts we have a few individual stocks and cash. Our total net worth is down by 11-12%. It is disappointing about the amount of loss but I will be watching our investments and if it gets low enough I will start buying or maybe just leave it alone. There is no way to know when or how the market will behave in the future. But most of our stash will be more for inheritance than for us.
Cheers!
|
|
|
05-21-2022, 06:10 AM
|
#16
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 987
|
About the same for us, YTD. All I have to do is switch to a 3 year view of PF size and see I am still way up from when I retired, despite modest withdrawals for living. It does make it look more like noise that way.
|
|
|
05-22-2022, 09:49 AM
|
#17
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
|
Our YTD is about -10% for a 40/60 (FI/equity) mix.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
|
|
|
05-22-2022, 10:42 AM
|
#18
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
|
Down 13% ytd. It's not fun, but just have to ride it out like all the other times.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
|
|
|
05-22-2022, 11:06 AM
|
#19
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,351
|
I normally wouldn't even have looked until year-end, but this thread prompted me. Our equity tranche is basically VTWAX. Sticker price is down 8.67% through end of April but there was a dividend in March that I am too lazy to figure for total return. So I'll say "less than" 8.67%. Our fixed income tranche is basically TIPS, the 2s of 26. Sticker price is down 2.5% but there was a semiannual interest payment in January so we are down "less than" 2.5%
__________________
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
|
|
|
05-22-2022, 11:11 AM
|
#20
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,930
|
Only down <1% YTD but I've been in cash "most of the time" in my IRA speculation account. I got lucky on a few bigger swing trades (XOM and CVX) that helped but still down a little.
In my 401K investment account, I'm up almost 2% YTD but it's all in fixed income.
__________________
20's "something" mind, trapped in a 70's "something" body
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|