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Old 05-21-2020, 03:57 PM   #161
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I choose not to stay the course. .....

realistically the next 12 months earnings will be much lower at a minimum just from what will happen during 2Q. Let alone a reduced hangover in 3Q / 4Q and possibly beyond.

.....
.... I think investors will see people and companies as they emerge from lockdown still do and spend much less until we have herd immunity or vaccine / cure. There will be much less spending by everybody and (most not all) companies: travel will be continue to be muted, entertainment will be at a stand still, restaurants will be way way down, etc. None of this will change until the virus is no longer a major concern. .......

The major caveat (hope) in this is a vaccine or cure. If that does happen (soon), and it is widely available; things could come roaring back.
I agree, things have changed too much for it to be the same minus 10%, which it was due to be simply because it was too richly valued before.

Some of my holdings are down a LOT.... example BRK.B talk about disappointment...

I'll hold the deep losers like BRK.B but the light losers like VTI and SPY are prime for selling.

I really think we are going to face another dip/drop.
With the unemployed hordes not seen since the Depression, how can we so happily carry on
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:03 PM   #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
I agree, things have changed too much for it to be the same minus 10%, which it was due to be simply because it was too richly valued before.

Some of my holdings are down a LOT.... example BRK.B talk about disappointment...

I'll hold the deep losers like BRK.B but the light losers like VTI and SPY are prime for selling.

I really think we are going to face another dip/drop.
With the unemployed hordes not seen since the Depression, how can we so happily carry on
I agree with you
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:18 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
I agree, things have changed too much for it to be the same minus 10%, which it was due to be simply because it was too richly valued before.

Some of my holdings are down a LOT.... example BRK.B talk about disappointment...

I'll hold the deep losers like BRK.B but the light losers like VTI and SPY are prime for selling.

I really think we are going to face another dip/drop.
With the unemployed hordes not seen since the Depression, how can we so happily carry on
Agree in general but with one interesting point.
The last 2 times we had over 10% unemployment, we were in the beginnings already of new bull markets.
1982 and 2009.
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Old 05-21-2020, 08:06 PM   #164
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The only metric to measure the market now is the virus. We are reopening, the market is up. The future is unclear, but hopeful.

I am virtually even YTD. Staying the course.
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Old 05-21-2020, 08:35 PM   #165
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I really don't have an AA plan as the majority (~67%) of our investable assets are in investment properties. I did move approximately 8% of our liquid assets (including retirement accounts) from cash to individual stocks at the end of February and the last week of March. This was cash I had not invested yet from the sale of a property that closed in November of 2019. Once we sell the rest of our properties (current plan is 2023'ish, maybe...) we will probably be around 70/30.

I have not held any international equities and do not see buying any any time soon.
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:23 AM   #166
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The only metric to measure the market now is the virus. We are reopening...
??
If the only metric were the virus, then one would not stay the course.
If the only metric were the virus, and we are reopening, then one would definitely not stay the course.
IMO the only measure to determine staying the course is The Fed... BRRRRRRRRR....BRRRRRRRRR....
Or a miracle. Miracles do happen.

On March 16, we knew that SARS-CoV2 caused severe respiratory disease, many cases which could not be helped. China was trying ECMO and sometimes proning helped.
Two and a half months later, we know that SARS-CoV2 in some patients causes the respiratory prob, directly damages brain, liver, heart, kidneys, causes blood clots in blood vessels of all sizes causes COVID toe, heart attacks, strokes, renal failure, skin lesions, multi-system inflammation in kids and more. ECMO doesn’t help. Proning does.
Meanwhile, Americans, who either have not seen this disease up close or are willing to gamble that they will have a mild case, are eager to get back out and encounter the virus, which is more than happy to find a new locus in which to outbreak.

Hope and positive thoughts is not a successful strategy with science. Yes, the future is unclear... because a miracle could happen. Miracles do happen.
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:44 PM   #167
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I continue with the plan: 84/0/16 . It did drift as low as 80/20. I continue to sleep well at night
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:42 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
I agree, things have changed too much for it to be the same minus 10%, which it was due to be simply because it was too richly valued before.

Some of my holdings are down a LOT.... example BRK.B talk about disappointment...

I'll hold the deep losers like BRK.B but the light losers like VTI and SPY are prime for selling.

I really think we are going to face another dip/drop.
With the unemployed hordes not seen since the Depression, how can we so happily carry on
I don't want to mislead folks, so when I talk about primed to sell my light losers, I mean within IRA/ROTH.

I am staying the course in taxable as the tax hit would be too much to sell all, and while I have not figured it out, paying an extra 14%->20% in taxes compared to later slowly over decades selling it, would seem to equal another big plunge in the stock market. This would hurt doubly if I was wrong.
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:48 PM   #169
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Agree in general but with one interesting point.
The last 2 times we had over 10% unemployment, we were in the beginnings already of new bull markets.
1982 and 2009.
While differences exist, it does make me think I could be wrong, and things will muddle along where we are for a year and then return to overpriced.
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Old 05-23-2020, 10:54 AM   #170
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Went from 60/35/5 down to 47/48/5 mostly by selling off some intl and small cap, reducing risk exposure. Only down 5.88% this year so not a bad hit. Our AA is all stock in taxable and all bonds in tax-advantaged, don't want to sell down stock further because I don't want the long-term CGs (we have heavily subsidized ACA health insurance).

Was able to harvest some tax losses by doing so, don't have a problem doing it again in future when the market catches up to earnings reality later this year. We are still in a fed-created bubble IMO.
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