Is anyone tempted to do some "market timing"

[SecondCor521]

Nope.

2Cor521

[poyet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darryl Just placed an order for some more small value a few minutes ago down 3% today wanted to buy at the new sale price

I'm afraid that small value start a bear trend (at least I see it on the chart) and I would be very cautious. Would small growth have done the same I would already have sold my entire US small caps. I've already sold most of my european small caps (early bear market) and Japan (early bear as well).

I'm afraid you'll keep buying more for less of these small value in a few months.

[twaddle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by poyet Japan (early bear as well).

For Japan, I prefer to watch the yen rather than momentum.

[poyet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle For Japan, I prefer to watch the yen rather than momentum.

I also loose on the Yen as I am in the Euro zone (FR) and the Yen has also gone down against the Euro.... So I have two bear markets compounding there, the N225 and the Yen/Euro...

Beuh...

[mathjak107]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nun I'm NOT a market timer, I've always dollar cost averaged into index funds, however, I moved 75% of my US Index funds to my money market yesterday and I'm going to sit on it through the first quarter. Maybe when the DOW hits 12000 I'll get back in.

well your a dirty little market timer now ha ha ha. i have to admit except for my fidelity insight growth mix which i never touch other than recommended changes i did lighten up everything else. i ususlly run 60/40 to 50/50 but am now about 30/70 cash and bonds ,mostley cash.

plan is if we drop another 5% or so that will be down around 10% ill comitt 1/3. another 5% another 1/3 and another 5% another 1/3

with everyone having the same horrible 50/50 outlook on recession we are more likly headed down

remember markets are based on just the perception of it happening. everyones sitting with their finger on the trigger so as not to get caught in a down draft again for years.

its almost going to be a self fullfilling prophesy i think, like telling a kid hes bad so he becomes bad.

[Notmuchlonger]

So for the people who got "out" . Whats your criteria for getting back in?

[danm]

If it's a typical recession than later this year should see bottom. If the de-leveraging continues (this is a solvency bust not liquidity) then ... we'll see.

Problem is I don't see where the long term growth will come from for the next decade. I believe that the global growth idea is a red herring, examining trade balances shows that it's all going here in the US, mostly due to home equity withdrawal which is over with.

I opine the money won't be as easy in the next decade as it was in the last.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger So for the people who got "out" . Whats your criteria for getting back in?

[P.S.]

i've started to take nibbles...

[Notmuchlonger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by danm If it's a typical recession than later this year should see bottom. If the de-leveraging continues (this is a solvency bust not liquidity) then ... we'll see. Problem is I don't see where the long term growth will come from for the next decade. I believe that the global growth idea is a red herring, examining trade balances shows that it's all going here in the US, mostly due to home equity withdrawal which is over with. I opine the money won't be as easy in the next decade as it was in the last.

You have confidence that you can pick the bottom?

[danm]

(Shrug ...) I picked the exact top in local housing which is when I sold my house (still renting), picked the low in bonds and the top in stocks last year.

It's odd, Bill Bernstein sings the praises of not timing, however I know one of his close friends - who also retired early from following Bill back when he was just a voice on the internet. Anyhow this friend does time, at the big turning points, such as 2001 when he sold everything and went into REIT's.

99% of the time I ... don't time. However I don't follow the passive investing mantra like it's a religion, certainly I don't think it applies to the many very knowledgeable people on this board.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger You have confidence that you can pick the bottom?

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by danm (Shrug ...) I picked the exact top in local housing which is when I sold my house (still renting), picked the low in bonds and the top in stocks last year.

That's great. How about posting here when you identify the low and share some of the wealth? You'd make a lot of friends!

[poyet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo That's great. How about posting here when you identify the low and share some of the wealth? You'd make a lot of friends!

You know, nobody never ever takes advantage of your own experience and everybody needs to pay to make its own. When you see people catching falling knives and you try to deter them from doing so, they claim that for whatever reason they know what they do and they are confident that they'll make more money than anyone else... When a month or two later it's obvious that they could have made money going SHORT they just say that if they do not sell they have lost nothing :-) etc.

I do not claim to be 100% right on the target. But most of the time when I've been (and that was more often than not, otherwise I would not have ER@45) and I've let others know of what I was doing (to foster discussion, challenge positions, try to improve myself), they usually dismissed my options for very good reasons and were doing something else.

You can't help people. Sometimes not even yourself as from time to time I keep re-doing previous, well known and well documented mistakes myself !

[danm]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo That's great. How about posting here when you identify the low and share some of the wealth? You'd make a lot of friends!

No way, I might be wrong! I won't be responsible for your losses (or gains for that matter). The flip side is getting continually nagged by friends and relatives who know little about investing, yet think it's their job to advise me. Such as 'you are crazy to sell and not buy another house - housing ALWAYS GOES UP ...'

Of course, those nags turned to praise this last six months, but I still get blank stares when I offer my opinion.

Quote:

You know, nobody never ever takes advantage of your own experience and everybody needs to pay to make its own. When you see people catching falling knives and you try to deter them from doing so, they claim that for whatever reason they know what they do and they are confident that they'll make more money than anyone else... When a month or two later it's obvious that they could have made money going SHORT they just say that if they do not sell they have lost nothing :-) etc. I do not claim to be 100% right on the target. But most of the time when I've been (and that was more often than not, otherwise I would not have ER@45) and I've let others know of what I was doing (to foster discussion, challenge positions, try to improve myself), they usually dismissed my options for very good reasons and were doing something else. You can't help people. Sometimes not even yourself as from time to time I keep re-doing previous, well known and well documented mistakes myself !

Well said. I didn't try and deter my sister from making a mess of her finances by dumping everything into a declining asset (her house). Well, I did try, but as I expected I couldn't somebody who was so positively sure. One advantage I have is continual self doubt.

[mathjak107]

Quote:

Originally Posted by poyet You know, nobody never ever takes advantage of your own experience and everybody needs to pay to make its own. When you see people catching falling knives and you try to deter them from doing so, they claim that for whatever reason they know what they do and they are confident that they'll make more money than anyone else... When a month or two later it's obvious that they could have made money going SHORT they just say that if they do not sell they have lost nothing :-) etc. I do not claim to be 100% right on the target. But most of the time when I've been (and that was more often than not, otherwise I would not have ER@45) and I've let others know of what I was doing (to foster discussion, challenge positions, try to improve myself), they usually dismissed my options for very good reasons and were doing something else. You can't help people. Sometimes not even yourself as from time to time I keep re-doing previous, well known and well documented mistakes myself !

bought citigroup last month trying to catch the ole falling knive. got stopped out yesterday and its gone at a loss.
damn i was sure i timed it just right.

[Salaryman]

buy index funds for the long term. too busy enjoying life to worry about up/down of market.

[poyet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salaryman buy index funds for the long term. too busy enjoying life to worry about up/down of market.

Well, I do not worry about the markets, I just enjoy the playground. The better you get the better you play the more fun you have. Sometimes you are frustrated as you did not play well the game (as for any game), but in the end it is something you like and you would miss if not in (short &/or long). At least this is the way I feel and my ER was in fact a gradual shift from a management (science) job where 10%, 20%, 30% of my time was progressively allocated to trading, managing my investments. The only thing is that I've replaced the other 70% by astronomy, skiing, etc. but I keep spending 30% of my time improving my trading software(s), my techniques, reading, surfing forums like this one to get a feel of what people do and think, etc.

As far as Citygroup is concerned the last entry was short on 28/08/2007 @ 47,26 initial stop buy @ 50,2 (pretty close) and stop buy moving down since. Position still open. I promise, I'll post here when I'll go LONG on it ! Might not be soon...

I strongly recommend to you all if you wish to time a bit your investments or trade a bit (for fun) the reading of Stan Weinstein's secrets for profiting in Bull and Bear markets (13,57$ on AMZN !!). Undoubtedly and by far the best book I've ever read on these subjects. This is mainly TA but the guy has got a clear mind and the book is well written and organized.

Again some will tell me that TA is tea leaf reading. They should better say that they are not interested in it. Quantic mechanics is also tea leaf reading for those who do not want to know what it is about ! But in the end these are just models of some reality. Would not we talk about money and would we analyse graphs of physical phenomenons (or sociological behaviours - which is the case in fine) nobody would consider TA strange. Physicists keep on processing signal, doing FFTs, and so on and so forth. It's just a way of extracting useful information from phenomenons & signals.

I'm not selling TA here, just sharing a bit of my life and of what I enjoy.

[2B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by poyet Again some will tell me that TA is tea leaf reading. They should better say that they are not interested in it. Quantic mechanics is also tea leaf reading for those who do not want to know what it is about ! But in the end these are just models of some reality. Would not we talk about money and would we analyse graphs of physical phenomenons (or sociological behaviours - which is the case in fine) nobody would consider TA strange. Physicists keep on processing signal, doing FFTs, and so on and so forth. It's just a way of extracting useful information from phenomenons & signals. I'm not selling TA here, just sharing a bit of my life and of what I enjoy.

You are denigrating tea bag reading. I'd put much more faith in it than technical analysis. I was fully committed to TA way back when. I had the charts going all over the place. Eventually I figured out that technical analysis was an excellent way of sounding knowledgeable when describing what had already happened but was totally useless in predicting anything reliably.

Technical analysis sucks in the math and science types. It feeds on our strength and a human desire to see a pattern in everything. Repeated studies have shown it to not "work" but it still sells books so it's still around.

Good luck to you. I hope you can escape befoe it causes you to lose too much money.

[mathjak107]

like fabian and his moving average system which failed badly

[chinaco]

Not me.

I am sticking with the plan!

Just normal rebalancing and long-term adjustments.

[limpid lizard]

But I am cowardly. A few years ago, I took a paltry couple thousand and opened a Roth. I was interested in seeing how the financial consultants worked, and I shopped that couple thousand around to a few different big names. I did not see any real genius at any of them. The money eventually found its way to Vanguard.

Last spring I retired at 55. I transferred most of my 401K to Vanguard and had my lump sum pension sent there too. I stuck it all in MM and went walkabout until my head cleared.

When I spoke with the Vanguard rep, our ideas were quite similar, except he wanted me to buy into the index funds while the DOW was way over 14,000. I purchased my bond funds at that time and let the rest ride in the MM as I was too cowardly to bet my money on the DOW staying that high.

Since then, I bought here and there when the DOW dropped below 13,000. If it dropped one day and then again the next, I just bought more. I am willing to gamble below 13,000.

I was sitting at 20% MM, 50% index stock and 30% index bonds until last Friday. I bought more index stock on Friday. If the DOW continues down this week, I will buy a bit more.

My short time, ~5 years, living money remains conservatively invested at Fido in my 401K. I'm nervous, but I keep telling myself that I have played at this game for more than 20 years and have not lost my shirt yet. I finished up 2007 having done all I wanted to do and with more than I started after accounting for inflation at 3%. I would have liked to have done better, but thank my lucky stars I did this well.

So, in a sense I guess I have been market timing. I do not expect to buy at the bottom, but I abhor the idea of buying at the top. I'd just like to get everything were I want it at a reasonable price and then forget about it.