Is anyone tempted to do some "market timing"

[REWahoo]

I have concluded that the asset allocation/rebalancing mantra is just that. Many people salute it but not many people practice it purely.

Unclemick and the Norwegian Widow will be along shortly to comment on your observation. Testosteronely speaking, of course...

 

[W2R]

Does this happen to any of you?

I did my annual rebalancing, moving a relatively small amount from stocks to cash. Now I find myself hoping that the stock market will go down, so I can feel good about the fact that I took some money out of it. Doesn't matter that I have tons more money still in the market.

I balanced my TSP right after Christmas, changing to 50% "G Fund" and 50% stock funds in my account and contributions. My plans are to increase the percentage of "G Fund" by 2.5% each month until it is 100% at ER. (I can do that at no cost.) So, I would be increasing it to 52.5% on February 1st.

As of this morning, it's at 51.25% all by itself! It may make it to 52.5% before February 1st, without any efforts on my part.

Still, I can't say I'm thrilled about the market going down when I'm trying to ease out of it.

 

[Moemg]

I usually rebalance Jan.1 st. but I'm waiting patienty for a little up in the market to do this .I'm probably going to ease back on my 85% stock portfolio .

 

[spazz]

for all those closet market timers out there

Wow, I can't believe the number posters who claim that they are "non-market timers" where, in fact, they are indeed timing the market.

Please read Market Timing -- A complete definition before posting anymore "I'm not a market timer but..." statements.

 

[W2R]

Wow, I can't believe the number posters who claim that they are "non-market timers" where, in fact, they are indeed timing the market.

Please read Market Timing -- A complete definition before posting anymore "I'm not a market timer but..." statements.

Well, I hope you weren't talking about me! I am increasing my "G Fund" simply to shift to my ER AA from my accumulation phase AA over a couple of years, which has been the plan since around 2003. It would be market timing to NOT do it, under the circumstances.

And by the way, I notice that was your 3rd post. Welcome to the board!

 

[Zathras]

Awfully vague definition, the examples fill it out though.
According to their 'what it is'

Market timing is the practice of buying and selling securities based on economic trends, corporate information, and market factors. ...

Basically, anyone that investigates corporate information is a market timer. I disagree with that.
I do agree with the example they give which talks about timers believing short term price are important and often predictable.
I do feel I fall into their definition of passive investors who 'evaluate an investments long term potential...'
Yes, I am victim to the occasional testosterone buying, but I keep that to a minimum
And yes, I am a value investor always looking for sales. If you define someone as a market timer if they buy low cost stocks instead of high priced stocks, I guess I am one

 

[Moemg]

Wow, I can't believe the number posters who claim that they are "non-market timers" where, in fact, they are indeed timing the market.

Please read Market Timing -- A complete definition before posting anymore "I'm not a market timer but..." statements.

I'll fess up I'd much rather sell in an up market .So I guess I'm a market timer .

 

[haha]

I am really surprised how little moaning there is on the board about this current market. The S&P is doing touch and goes with its intraday low of last August. The Dow not much different. And many financial stocks are being murdered- IMO both the good ones and the bad ones.

How come people are so cool with this?

Ha

 

[Notmuchlonger]

I am really surprised how little moaning there is on the board about this current market. The S&P is doing touch and goes with its intraday low of last August. The Dow not much different. And many financial stocks are being murdered- IMO both the good ones and the bad ones.

How come people are so cool with this?

Ha

We set our AA so we are comfortable with the swings. We are also still contributing. I realized that I cant do a damn thing about it anyways so why waste the energy. Plus prior experience tells me that in the end the markets go up "usually"

 

[W2R]

We set our AA so we are comfortable with the swings. We are also still contributing. I realized that I cant do a damn thing about it anyways so why waste the energy. Plus prior experience tells me that in the end the markets go up "usually"

All of that applies here, too. Plus, I'm hiding my head in the sand! One of these days I'll freak but hopefully not veer from my AA.

 

[free4now]

I'm not complaining because my Berkshire Hathaway stock (about 1/3 of my equity) went up almost enough to balance the stock market declines:

BRK-B: Basic Chart for BERKSHIRE HATH HLD B - Yahoo! Finance

I'm only down about 5% overall.

 

[TromboneAl]

I am really surprised how little moaning there is on the board about this current market. The S&P is doing touch and goes with its intraday low of last August. The Dow not much different. And many financial stocks are being murdered- IMO both the good ones and the bad ones.

La la la I can't hear you la la la.

I do my rebalancing every year, no matter what. But I do it on Jan 2 to take advantage of the Santa Claus rally and the end-of-the-month effect. Does that make me a timer?

 

[FUEGO]

I'm getting tempted to set a new dynamic asset allocation (call it market timing if you want!). Currently targeted at 50/50 US/International under static asset allocation, however I'm thinking international can't outperform forever. I'm consider switching about 5% from international into small cap/small cap value in tax-sheltered accounts. I almost pulled the trigger this morning but I wanted to mull it over a little.

I'd like to sell high, buy low, and this seems like a good time to take advantage of cheap dollar-foreign currency trade in case it switches. Decisions... Decisions...

 

[free4now]

I hear you Al.

My rule is that I never do a transaction because of market predictions, but if there are transactions I am going to do anyway, every once in a while I will hasten or delay them or change the size depending on where I think the market is heading.

For instance once I decided I was going to sell my condo sometime in the next few years, it became clear that because of the declining market it was best to do it ASAP, and I'm proud to have gotten out pretty darn close to the peak of the market last year.

 

[Moemg]

I am really surprised how little moaning there is on the board about this current market. The S&P is doing touch and goes with its intraday low of last August. The Dow not much different. And many financial stocks are being murdered- IMO both the good ones and the bad ones.

How come people are so cool with this?

Ha

I've learned that worry does nothing so why worry !

 

[audreyh1]

I am really surprised how little moaning there is on the board about this current market. The S&P is doing touch and goes with its intraday low of last August. The Dow not much different. And many financial stocks are being murdered- IMO both the good ones and the bad ones.

How come people are so cool with this?

Ha

Well, it's not as if we can do anything about it!

My retirement portfolio is way up since the last bear market. In other words - I'm going into the current market way ahead of where I entered the 2000-2002 bear market - like 67% higher.

So it's hard to get upset. Bear markets are finite.

Audrey

 

[mathjak107]

we all forget that if we didnt put up with the nail biting and aggravation of investing that we would be no where near the value we are now if we were all in cd's. even falling back 25% leaves you many times higher then just a money market or cd's.

 

[haha]

I'm Not A Market Timer

I'm a flexible market-driven asset allocator.

Ha

 

[megacorp-firee]

Wow, I can't believe the number posters who claim that they are "non-market timers" where, in fact, they are indeed timing the market.

Please read Market Timing -- A complete definition before posting anymore "I'm not a market timer but..." statements.

Thank you spazz ... from the mouth of (forum) babes. As you can see, it's a no-no to admit to being a DMT (dirty market timer). Welcome to the forum.

 

[megacorp-firee]

I am really surprised how little moaning there is on the board about this current market. The S&P is doing touch and goes with its intraday low of last August. The Dow not much different. And many financial stocks are being murdered- IMO both the good ones and the bad ones.

How come people are so cool with this?

Ha

I don't think people are cool with it ... but what would you have us do? Gnash our teeth and pull out our hair?

Most of us here on the board have been through these types of markets at least once (and some of many more times). Unless the world has dramatically changed, this kind of thing is 'normal'. The market does not go straight up ... You need to put on your helmet and tighten the seat belt.

 

[TickTock]

I am really surprised how little moaning there is on the board about this current market. The S&P is doing touch and goes with its intraday low of last August. The Dow not much different. And many financial stocks are being murdered- IMO both the good ones and the bad ones.

How come people are so cool with this?

Ha

I'm still in the accumulation phase, so this is 'buying on the cheap' for me. Down, down, damn stocks! Hit a low before my 401(k) money goes in!!

But I don't actually do anything about it, just root for a dip before those 401(k) inflows hit.

Presumably, after I'm FIREd my AA would be less aggressive and I'd have more cash reserves, so my overall balance wouldn't be down like it is today. Of course, it's one thing to sit here and think about it, another to actually live through it...

 

[TickTock]

I think what I did about a week ago, ie putting 75% of my US funds into MM should really be described as reallocation rather than market timing. Looking at all the signs in the entrails I think 2008 is going to be bad for stocks so I'll sit on some cash for 6 to 9 months and wait until I see housing starts and purchases starting to turn around, and then re-evaluate my allocation

You're moving money around based on market conditions and waiting for (less than one year) market conditions to change before you move it around again and don't think you're market timing?

On dynamic AA, I say that if you come up with an objective, measurable plan beforehand and stick to it, that qualifies. Say, something along the lines of "Historically, the (P/E, yield, PEG, other measure) has averaged X with a Y standard deviation, so for every Z points above/below X I'll lower/raise my target AA by B%". If done on the spur of the moment, or based on news or economic opinion, or personal opinion - it's market timing.

 

[JPatrick]

I am really surprised how little moaning there is on the board about this current market. The S&P is doing touch and goes with its intraday low of last August. The Dow not much different. And many financial stocks are being murdered- IMO both the good ones and the bad ones.

How come people are so cool with this?

Ha

On the positive side, the volatility offered up since last summer hasn't been matched for years. It has been the best day trading market for me since ~1999. Reading tea leaves for a moment, I'd bet that once we catch a look at the light at the end of the tunnel on a few issues that are dogging us, we should be set up for one great rally that could run a couple of years. Hope someone rings a bell for us.
On the other hand, I am not cool watching my mutual fund assets vaporize.Have never gotten used to it.

 

[REWahoo]

Hope someone rings a bell for us.

Cowbell?

 

[danm]

I'm impressed with the steadfastness people are showing in this market. Many things are coming up that we haven't seen in our lifetimes, lowest savings rate since the Great Depression, first national housing bust since the GD, largest leveraged markets, corps and individuals since right before the GD, and recently the worst first week showing in the DOW since 1932.

Hats off to you folks! I forecast this and planned accordingly - but it scares the willies out of me!