Is it a good time to buy pot stocks ?

[Bir48die]

uh, what was the question?

[dixonge]

I have a small stake in IIPR which is a medical marijuana REIT. It got hammered along with all the other stocks, even though their business model has nothing to do with legalization/recreational use. Back up a decent amount today though.

Was thinking about an additional stake but nothing else truly focused on mj pays dividends...

[LRDave]

Will the market not grow as us old'uns check out and the young'uns check in?

[CaliforniaMan]

I'm confused why would your pot stocks get hammered? Don't you just have to unscrew the mason jar lid?

[HFWR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianB In precious metals I prefer "physical" gold to "paper" gold (shares), so my recommendation in this matter would be.....

“No stems or seeds that you don’t need,
Acapulco Gold is ... ooooosh... bad ass weed.”

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneill225 The established marijuana selling states are raking in hundreds of millions of dollars in all cash tax revenue. Imagine the numbers when credit cards can be used. The shift away from the "black market" has happened already in these states and there is no reason to think it won't happen in every state that legalizes.

Not quite true. In all the states with recreational pot legal the black market is still thriving. The taxes and regulation drive the legal price up to close to double the street price. California's new market has an eighth going for $50-$65, and the black market price is still around $20.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dixonge I have a small stake in IIPR which is a medical marijuana REIT. It got hammered along with all the other stocks, even though their business model has nothing to do with legalization/recreational use.

Actually Sessions' announcement doesn't really effect the legal market. The Cole memo only addressed medical marijuana, so revoking it also only effects medical. But in reality, the announcement doesn't really change anything, since federal prosecutions are only about 1% of the total drug arrests. And, at least for now, the Rohrabacher-Farr amendment still prevents the feds from spending any money to prosecute medical marijuana (recreational is still not addressed in all this).

As interested as I am in the topic, I'm still not seeing a big opportunity investment wise. I'll just keep on indexing and dreaming of the day one of my states lets me walk into a store and buy some legal pot.

[skipro33]

Well, not sure about other states, but here in California the legalization has caused an explosion in illegal grows. One county up North has requested a federal disaster status because of how much harm is being done to the wilds. It's like a mob rushing the only exit and everyone who tries to control it is just gonna get stomped.
I don't see the feds backing off, I don't see banking taking on all that cash and I don't see the illegal growers viewing legalization other than a way to ruse their own operations for laundering their pot. Besides, everyone has the right to grow 6 plants for their own use. I would think a great business model would be to either sell the plants to individuals or to sell a kit so folks could try growing their own. A lot of people are curious about pot, but wouldn't want to get caught buying in a public place.

[candrew]

Anyone else here concerned that their investment would go up in smoke?

[jim584672]

Would be careful about buying stock in a company that produces a schedule 1 controlled substance. They will probably arrest the shareholder list for conspiracy to manufacture schedule 1 controlled substance.

[ESRwannabe]

I probably will add a pot etf at some point. I also assume cigarette companies like MO/PM will get in on it at some point.

[Bir48die]

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipro33 Well, not sure about other states, but here in California the legalization has caused an explosion in illegal grows. One county up North has requested a federal disaster status because of how much harm is being done to the wilds. It's like a mob rushing the only exit and everyone who tries to control it is just gonna get stomped. I don't see the feds backing off, I don't see banking taking on all that cash and I don't see the illegal growers viewing legalization other than a way to ruse their own operations for laundering their pot. Besides, everyone has the right to grow 6 plants for their own use. I would think a great business model would be to either sell the plants to individuals or to sell a kit so folks could try growing their own. A lot of people are curious about pot, but wouldn't want to get caught buying in a public place.

Huh? There has been an explosion for 20 years in Cali. If you drive north of SF you would know. Legalization will cause warfare in Humbolt County.

[skipro33]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bir48die Huh? There has been an explosion for 20 years in Cali. If you drive north of SF you would know. Legalization will cause warfare in Humbolt County.

Well, believe it or not, it's true. Here's a report from CBS San Francisco station link to a video. Syskiyou County has declared a state of emergency.
Hundreds Of Illegal Marijuana Grow Operations Sprout Around Mt. Shasta « CBS San Francisco

It's just amazing how many new illegal pot grows have popped up with the legalization for recreational pot. As the newscaster put it, "you have to see it to believe it." 80 pot gardens per square mile. 26 THOUSAND plants worth over $300 Million dollars were confiscated.

The reporter pointed out that you can see all the grows from Google Earth even! Grow after grow after grow. This isn't the emerald triangle you were eluding to. This is all new stuff.

[Koogie]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRG I just don't know how to invest in the stuff. Yeah there are many start-ups and much valid interest by pharmaceutical companies. If I was going to put money in it I would look at foreign, to the US, drug companies. Maybe Canada, Uruguay, or Mexico, anyplace where access to the plant is not going to be problematic for researchers

The thought has always been it was going to be the drug companies muscling into pot once it became worthwhile but here in Canada it is turning out it might be the distilling/brewing companies instead. Their complimentary distribution channels, marketing expertise and experience with controlled substances make sense.

Constellation Brands (STZ) bought 10% of Canopy Growth (WEED.TO)

Molson/Coors has said they "definitely" have no interest in it. Which means they should be getting the munchies for pot companies soon...

[Samething]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koogie The thought has always been it was going to be the drug companies muscling into pot once it became worthwhile but here in Canada it is turning out it might be the distilling/brewing companies instead. Their complimentary distribution channels, marketing expertise and experience with controlled substances make sense. Constellation Brands (STZ) bought 10% of Canopy Growth (WEED.TO) Molson/Coors has said they "definitely" have no interest in it. Which means they should be getting the munchies for pot companies soon...

I bought some Canopy Corp back a few years ago when it was called Tweed Marijuana Inc. It's had a nice run up lately. I also bought several other "pot stocks" that lost over half their value. It's in my basket of spec stocks that started out as just a small amount of $$ but thanks to TWMJF (Canopy) it's something I look at and say humm that's nice. I intend to just hold and see what happens.
Full disclosure I also have FNMA in that basket. 3 years of dead money lol.

[RobbieB]

Now is a good time to smoke pot -

[oneill225]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jim584672 Would be careful about buying stock in a company that produces a schedule 1 controlled substance. They will probably arrest the shareholder list for conspiracy to manufacture schedule 1 controlled substance.

Most, if not all, invest in the tangential businesses associated with marijuana production and sales. For example, a company that produces growing equipment or a company that sells sales tracking software. There are even a number of companies, like CARA, who are researching new drugs derived from cannaboids.

In Washington State, the industry is quickly evolving towards big business models with high standards for quality control and sales. I believe that, over time, the smaller sellers will drop out and the industry will resemble the alcohol industry, now.

Large scale producers also produce at a cheaper cost. Outside of home growers, there will be no real incentive for illegal sellers/users. It is the exact same dynamic that killed bootleggers at the end of prohibition. It is just not worth the risk.

Yes, trying to predict the "winners" now is a bit risky and I would not bet more than I could afford to lose in the market. However, it is an industry with a huge upside and not all that speculative if you do a little research.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipro33 Well, not sure about other states, but here in California the legalization has caused an explosion in illegal grows. One county up North has requested a federal disaster status because of how much harm is being done to the wilds. It's like a mob rushing the only exit and everyone who tries to control it is just gonna get stomped. I don't see the feds backing off, I don't see banking taking on all that cash and I don't see the illegal growers viewing legalization other than a way to ruse their own operations for laundering their pot. Besides, everyone has the right to grow 6 plants for their own use. I would think a great business model would be to either sell the plants to individuals or to sell a kit so folks could try growing their own. A lot of people are curious about pot, but wouldn't want to get caught buying in a public place.

Would this be Humboldt county?

OK I saw your answer Siskiyou county.

[oneill225]

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipro33 Well, not sure about other states, but here in California the legalization has caused an explosion in illegal grows. One county up North has requested a federal disaster status because of how much harm is being done to the wilds. It's like a mob rushing the only exit and everyone who tries to control it is just gonna get stomped. I don't see the feds backing off, I don't see banking taking on all that cash and I don't see the illegal growers viewing legalization other than a way to ruse their own operations for laundering their pot. Besides, everyone has the right to grow 6 plants for their own use. I would think a great business model would be to either sell the plants to individuals or to sell a kit so folks could try growing their own. A lot of people are curious about pot, but wouldn't want to get caught buying in a public place.

I agree to disagree on almost all of your points. In the past, California has not had a vested interest in seriously cracking down on the illegal growers. Now that legal growing will generate millions in tax dollars, ever increasing legal resources will be devoted to shutting them down. Also, there will be a sales trail from the legal pot shop to those who provide their product. A simple crack-down on the shops (as in taking away licenses) combined with huge legal growing operations will render most of illegal crops useless.

The Feds have already backed-off and legalized marijuana becomes more popular across the nation every day. Laws change when sufficient public pressure mounts to change them; we are at that tipping point, now, with marijuana laws.

Banks and sellers, would love to stop using cash, but that won't happen until legalization occurs. In the meantime, I promise you that banks are in fact taking the cash generated in states where it is legal. With only a handful of states involved and it still being "illegal" on the Fed side, the marijuana industry is already generating billions of $$ in revenue. Eliminate the obstacles, discussed and it could easily surpass the alcohol industry for profits.

As far as growing your own, I brew my own beer at home, but most do not have the time or energy (heck, I still buy from stores). Growing pot at home should have little effect on the broader market.

I encourage you to look at the states that have already legalized. In those states, the stigma of buying pot is quickly being erased and the quality of the product is far different than getting a baggie from your shady friend back in high school. Lastly, despite the high taxes, prices are not keeping buyers away. I do not know why California would break this clear and established pattern.

[gayl]

Hopefully mods closed my other thread started by I didn't see this one. I'm putting in an order Monday as Schwab won't accept order today

As to the person on the other thread who akined it to 1900s GM vs defunct ones. Yes, hard to pick the best of breeds but CANN is above $5 and I have an adversion to buying stocks under $5 even in the trading account

[gayl]

I'm in