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is now the time for 5 year cd?
08-09-2022, 06:38 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: dubuque
Posts: 1,163
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is now the time for 5 year cd?
I am seeing cd/s at 3.95 for 5 years. Do you folks think this is where it will stop or will there be further increases? I don't know what to think with the fed commenting about not being as aggressive in the upcoming meetings. what do you think? thanks
frank
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08-09-2022, 06:43 AM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,593
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frank
I am seeing cd/s at 3.95 for 5 years. Do you folks think this is where it will stop or will there be further increases? I don't know what to think with the fed commenting about not being as aggressive in the upcoming meetings. what do you think? thanks
frank
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Sit tight, Frank, higher rates are coming.
Heck, I got 3.1% on a one year brokered CD this month at Schwab.
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
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08-09-2022, 06:58 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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My answer for most individual fixed income instruments is to ladder them and then stay true to the strategy of reinvesting maturing notes on the long end and enjoy life.
A ladder is a great hedge against interest rate risk and it eliminates having to guess. Rates on the intermediate/long end can drop just as easily as they go up. No one knows the future.
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08-09-2022, 07:02 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,654
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I would say wait until this years round of rate increases are over. 4+% to 5% is my goal
In the meantime, we are using MYGAs for tax deferral and litigation protection.
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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08-09-2022, 07:25 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,836
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It would seem (to me anyway) that rates will continue to climb, at least for the next 6 to 12 months. I fully expect CD's, for all maturities over 1 year, to be over 4% before year end, especially if the FED raises rates another .75 points in September. Personally I'm looking to start building a ladder when I see 18 to 36 month brokered CD's hit ~4%. I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable buying 4 or 5 year CD's, "this year" unless they were significantly higher, which could happen I guess.
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20's "something" mind, trapped in a 70's "something" body
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08-09-2022, 08:51 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
My answer for most individual fixed income instruments is to ladder them and then stay true to the strategy of reinvesting maturing notes on the long end and enjoy life.
A ladder is a great hedge against interest rate risk and it eliminates having to guess. Rates on the intermediate/long end can drop just as easily as they go up. No one knows the future.
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I think of laddering CDs/Bonds/etc. as the same thing as dollar cost averaging for putting new money into the stock market. It's rather humbling since I have to admit I can't predict the future. But, it keeps me from doing something silly like buying a 5 year CD at 1.2% ( I saw one late last year, IIRC) while inflation is starting to rage.
However, I do think with the Fed making it clear that further interest rate hikes are in the cards for later this year and maybe next year, avoiding long-term CDs is a good idea and has the odds going for it .
The July inflation rate is due to be unveiled in two days, the 11th. That might guide you a bit more.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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08-09-2022, 11:22 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,951
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Nobody has a functional crystal ball
so I read tea leaves.
My biased opinion is that while SHORT TERM rates are rising, rates on longer durations have actually been falling lately as "the market" is expecting rate cuts sooner rather than later. Inventory of longer durations is getting sucked up fast and a lot of new issues are callable.
Today's Fido brokered CD inventory is flat for 2, 3, and 4 years at 3.3-3.35, the 5 year is only 3.45. Even the 10yr is 3.45... I didn't check if it was callable.
Markets pivot a lot faster now days. Which will make you cry more: missing out on a rate increase (that may not move the 5 yr higher) or having rates drop again before you buy?
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08-09-2022, 11:37 AM
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#8
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 13,846
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The odds are rates will go up. But even if they don't, I can't imagine them coming down any time in the next 6 months. No need to rush for a long term CD.
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08-09-2022, 11:49 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Rates over 5 years have been coming down. So for all of you that are sure they will go up, I wouldn’t be too sure.
In mid June I could buy 4.5% munis. Now the same duration is about 3.4%
Short term rates react to the Fed, intermediate and long react to the future of the economy.
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08-09-2022, 11:54 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,304
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Can’t go wrong with a ladder.
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...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
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08-09-2022, 12:59 PM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Tampa
Posts: 209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
Rates over 5 years have been coming down. So for all of you that are sure they will go up, I wouldn’t be too sure.
In mid June I could buy 4.5% munis. Now the same duration is about 3.4%
Short term rates react to the Fed, intermediate and long react to the future of the economy.
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Yes they have. Maybe buy a 5 year with 1/2 your money and hold off for a few months (lock into a 3 month) .
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08-09-2022, 01:17 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,308
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Magic 8 Ball says "maybe."
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Ignoramus et ignorabimus
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08-09-2022, 01:31 PM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Jacksonville
Posts: 636
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888
Sit tight, Frank, higher rates are coming.
Heck, I got 3.1% on a one year brokered CD this month at Schwab.
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I've been watching Fidelity for one of those good deal 1 year CDs. Slim pickins there.
Mike
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08-09-2022, 01:32 PM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2022
Posts: 219
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You guys prompted me to look at my credit union. Their CD rate curve is inverted. One year is 2.44%, five year is 0.9%.
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08-09-2022, 02:21 PM
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#15
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,593
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EarlyandLate
You guys prompted me to look at my credit union. Their CD rate curve is inverted. One year is 2.44%, five year is 0.9%.
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They won't sell many of those 5 year ones!
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*********Go Astros!*********
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08-09-2022, 04:59 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frank
I am seeing cd/s at 3.95 for 5 years. Do you folks think this is where it will stop or will there be further increases? I don't know what to think with the fed commenting about not being as aggressive in the upcoming meetings. what do you think? thanks
frank
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Nobody knows.
That includes the people that think they do.
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08-10-2022, 12:32 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 2,775
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frank
I am seeing cd/s at 3.95 for 5 years. Do you folks think this is where it will stop or will there be further increases? I don't know what to think with the fed commenting about not being as aggressive in the upcoming meetings. what do you think? thanks
frank
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May I ask where the 3.95% 5 year CD's are?
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08-10-2022, 12:40 PM
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#18
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,593
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Galt III
May I ask where the 3.95% 5 year CD's are?
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The best I have seen for 5 year is 3.55%.
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*********Go Astros!*********
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08-10-2022, 02:02 PM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Sunny California
Posts: 2,567
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From a poster at depositaccounts
4% 60-Month CD Rate Is Here!!
donwein | 4 hours ago
I have just spoken with my CSR at EFCU after completing a wire transfer from Ally Bank.
She told me to wait until tomorrow to open the 60-month jumbo CD, because there will be a rate INCREASE from 3.85% to 4.00%.
All I can say is Hallelujah, 4% has at long last arrived!!
https://www.depositaccounts.com/bank...tml#promo48778
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08-10-2022, 02:54 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,654
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NFCU has 3 year 3.3%
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