Is the American Dollar really going away?

[Koolau]

Are there concerns about the US economy, dollar, and economic policies, of course there are. But what would you own if not dollars? Gold? Sorry, I know there are plenty of gold bugs but gold bullion would be useless in a serious crisis and collectible coins are simple ripoffs and scams. Euros? GBP? They are closer and more exposed economically to the first threat the guy mentions (Ukraine war). Maybe Yen? Renminbi?

I'll keep my money in US dollars thank you!

I don't know much about international economic policies, but SOMEBODY thinks it's good to own more gold - namely China who has been buying - again.

No, probably not going back to a gold standard. I assume we're past that. But the stabilizing effect of gold in their treasury AND considering it more advantageous than more green backs may be instructive - not that I could explain why.

 

[MichaelB]

China has $3.5T of total foreign reserves, of which around $125B are in gold. That’s around 3.5%, so it’s not a meaningful amount. Around 60% of China’s reserves are in US$ or $ equivalent assets.

 

[USGrant1962]

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/part-2-two-part-look-1-principles-navigating-big-debt-ray-dalio/

...
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I am betting on 3-4X wage and price delta by 2031, 2-9X as outside limits, depending on what governments do.

...

Are you saying wages and prices at least triple by 2031? That's at least 15% annual US inflation for 8 years. I'll take the other side of that bet.

 

[Jimonlimon]

Preppers are right about one thing: It's important to be prepared.

My brother lives in a fire zone. Next time he will have all his financial records in the cloud instead of three copies in the same town (his business, home, and accountant). All three burned to ashes including the floor safe.

I live in an earthquake zone. More canned goods and potable water are in order. Plus should protect some liquor bottles in bubble wrap for the first days.

Etc.

Prepping is good. Basing your identity around prepping is sad.

Get busy livin' or get busy dyin'

 

[RobbieB]

Boy scouts are prepared. Preppers are paranoid.

 

[cnocmmz]

I'll be the first to admit that I am not the most informed person out there. I do not watch the news or much TV and really don't listen to much radio. I like Jim Rohn's saying of stand guard at the door of your mind.

Anyways, I couldn't help for this one to catch my eye. I got sucked in and ended up reading the entire article. Scary and grim, you betcha. I've always been on the wagon of keep investing and stay the course but this article sure makes me think different.

Just wondering what you guys think of this? Is there any truth to it or just hoax news?
https://www.askaprepper.com/death-of-the-dollar/

Sure it could but so can several things happen and it doesn't mean it will! From my perspective, these types of predictions have been stated for years and here we are. If this were the case, the U.S. Govt and all institutions would fail as well. Not sure it will happen in our lifetime. You were better off not reading it

 

[ejman]

Last I looked British Sterling was the reserve currency during the 19th Century and then it started a gradual decline during the first half of the 20th century as the dollar took over. Although somewhat mauled since Brexit it doesn't appear that the zombie apocalypse mentioned when a country's currency looses reserve status has started in GB just yet.

 

[Markola]

Reserve currencies each seem to last around a century. It doesn’t mean the currency “goes away”, nor does the country that issues it collapse.

 

[Siestatime]

Link seems to be invalid.

The American dollar will go away the day Pax Americana ends. If that happens, the world order as we know it now will be in serious turmoil without the stabilizing influence of American hegemony, and there will be a lot more things to worry about than which currency will replace the American dollar and what happens to our personal financial situation.

Well said. Bravo.

 

[Old Microbiologist]

These are pretty objective statements, but I would argue that there is subjectivity to be considered as well. The biggest factor is that no nation likes dancing to the US's tune. We've seen this recently with the debtor nations who owe in US$ getting hurt by our increased interest rates. Another big factor is that few or no nations like our habit of using our banking system to punish people and nations that we don't like. Recent example is the oil and gas trade between Russia and China eschewing dollars in favor of (IIRC) the yuan.

I think at some point the world is headed towards a reserve basket similar to the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights) I am no macroeconomist but I do think that the confluence of the objective and the subjective factors means that change is coming. When? No idea. It will probably be gradual, but it will not be fun for us.

I would argue based on these criteria the US no longer meets them either.

The larger issue is the interference for political and geopolitical goals by the US which is what has compromised the status of the dollar. This "war" in Ukraine and soon in China is existential for the dollar. The seizing of soverign wealth assets of Russia was the trigger for the eventual collapse. On a macroeconomic scale the US, which has evolved into a services-based economy, really produces very little to support its 350 million population. The economy has been supported in the past 20+ years by printing money which is only possible if other countries buy American bonds which float the dollar. Looking at the bond market now the largest customer is the US Treasury which if you examine it is yet more debt. Clearly, uncontrolled spending is what brought us here and is a function of adopting the patently stupid Modern Monetary Theory.

Many countries are now bypassing the SWIFT and use of US dollars to trade with each other. This is building steam and the economies outside the G7 are being backed by actual commodities rather than by fiat. This is the key and gold is once again becoming popular and countries with a lot of it will weather the changes well. The same for oil, minerals, and grains. The US is not poor and has the commodities to maintain a healthy economy but only if we reign in spending.

I do not see the dollar collapsing but it will lose its pre-eminence as a reserve currency which will force the US to default eventually. This has happened twice before so really not a "the sky is falling" event. The last was in 1972 when we dropped gold which went without any disruptions at all. A "new" dollar will replace the old and be based on something else (maybe gold?). Of course, this will dramatically raise the price of gold so as to pay down what will soon become a $35 trillion debt. That's good news for gold producers and those that have physical (not paper) gold assets. The US supposedly has the largest gold reserves but hasn't been audited since 1959. Then-Congressman Ron Paul consistently was demanding an audit of the Federal Reserve to actually see what we have. Rumors are we dumped it all after 1972. If gold is coming back in a big way I think the American people might just want to know where we are at on this yet Congress refuses to do its mandated duty.

 

[Aerides]

As a reminder for all and to keep this thread from going sideways, the discussion of cryptocurrency is not a welcome topic at this time: https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/cryptocurrency-discussions-on-er-forum-116585.html

 

[Markola]

Governments have proven since the Romans that they cannot reliably peg their currencies to metals. Over time, the Romans debased gold coins with cheaper metals, the Brits failed to maintain the pound’s peg with silver and the Americans failed to maintain the dollar’s peg with gold. Those were all tried and they all failed. We are not going to run the digital economy on gold coins anyway. If currencies issued by democracies become debased, currencies issued by untrustworthy BRICS countries certainly will not be accepted. We need something for a modern, global economy and which does not rely on governments to keep their hands off the fiat money printer.

 

[Koolau]

Governments have proven since the Romans that they cannot reliably peg their currencies to metals. Over time, the Romans debased gold coins with cheaper metals, the Brits failed to maintain the pound’s peg with silver and the Americans failed to maintain the dollar’s peg with gold. Those were all tried and they all failed. We are not going to run the digital economy on gold coins anyway. If currencies issued by democracies become debased, currencies issued by untrustworthy BRICS countries certainly will not be accepted. We need something for a modern, global economy and which does not rely on governments to keep their hands off the fiat money printer.

Fiat money always comes down to trust. I think the issue now is that USA (and most fiat-currency countries) have such debt that it comes down to who is the "best" among the "bad" currencies. Not a great way to induce trust but it's the game we have and the game we play - until we don't.

 

[HGTVFanatic]

I accessed the link with no problem but this sucker is long! Haven't read it yet.