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Old 11-23-2022, 08:24 AM   #121
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We have older cars. They are doing well at 12 and 14 years old. But we're a blown head gasket (Subaru, famous for them post 150k miles) away from a decision. So I've been monitoring inventory. That alone is tricky since the websites now try to force feed you "vehicle in transit/build" to fool you.

What I've seen the last few weeks is some relief in the less popular brands or models. For Subaru, that's the Outback. Most dealers have real inventory. For brands, that's something like Chevy. Toyota? Forget it... still. They had bad supply issues and they are popular. You are lucky to find anything.

Still, this is a change and the top starts somewhere. It just appears to me that the top has been reached. Who knows what the downslope will look like.

It could be steep if both interest rates and sudden supply relief overlay each other.

Then again, perhaps manufacturers will conspire to reduce supply. They keep saying they will. But will they? When the cars don't sell, will they be tempted to push them to dealers with back room incentives? That's been the story for the last 100 years, and one reason forced constrained supply (like the OPEC cartel) has never stuck.

We'll see. Here are some fresh articles about the inventory situation. I put a quote about supply constraining which I think may not pan out, but we need to see how this happens. Next year should be interesting.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/...ge/ar-AA14hLHD
https://www.autofinancenews.net/allp...ince-may-2021/
Hopefully there isn't a rail strike because that would not help the car situation. The three largest items shipped by rail (outside of intermodal trailers) are chemicals, coal, and cars. Oddly enough, there is decent chance that a strike could in just a few weeks but the news has been pretty quiet about it.
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Old 11-23-2022, 09:17 AM   #122
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Hopefully there isn't a rail strike because that would not help the car situation. The three largest items shipped by rail (outside of intermodal trailers) are chemicals, coal, and cars. Oddly enough, there is decent chance that a strike could in just a few weeks but the news has been pretty quiet about it.
It became a political thing, but now the election is over. I'm hoping we don't have to see what happens if there is a strike, and how it affects inflation and the stock market.
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Old 11-23-2022, 09:23 AM   #123
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It became a political thing, but now the election is over. I'm hoping we don't have to see what happens if there is a strike, and how it affects inflation and the stock market.
If a strike is adverted (hopefully so), the current administration will certainly claim credit for it.
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Old 11-23-2022, 10:00 AM   #124
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So much gloom and doom around here...
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Old 11-23-2022, 10:06 AM   #125
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It became a political thing, but now the election is over. I'm hoping we don't have to see what happens if there is a strike, and how it affects inflation and the stock market.
I don't think it was really *too* political (seems like most things are these days) but the government has tools that it can and has had to use (in regards the Railway Labor Act) to work on the negotiations. They are nearing the end of the law-mandated cooling off period and it may very well take government intervention to stop a strike.

Of course whoever is the POTUS will take credit...makes no matter the party affiliation.

Sorry to derail the thread...now back to your regularly scheduled forum thread...
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Old 11-23-2022, 06:26 PM   #126
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Actually, isn't it Congress which can force the unions to take a contract that they haven't ratified?

Some unions rejected the latest contract proposal because it didn't offer enough schedule flexibility, leafing to stress and quality of life issues.
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Old 11-23-2022, 06:43 PM   #127
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Then again, perhaps manufacturers will conspire to reduce supply. They keep saying they will. But will they? When the cars don't sell, will they be tempted to push them to dealers with back room incentives? That's been the story for the last 100 years, and one reason forced constrained supply (like the OPEC cartel) has never stuck.


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The manufacturers need production volume to make profit. Car dealers as well.
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