Is the Bull Market really 5 Years Old?

[NW-Bound]

Settling down at my cool place in the high country, checking up on my portfolio.,

My stock portions closed up 0.76%, matching the Dow. Still waiting for MF.

Will see tomorrow what effect the Oracle of DC's "Wheee" will have.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lsbcal Now you've done it.

+10!

(but you forgot the dancing icons)

[Lsbcal]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 +10! (but you forgot the dancing icons)

I don't want to jinx this market:

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst I am not W2R. However... WHEEEE!!!!

Yeah, I did our quarterly review and our net worth has also set another record high, even though I retired 3 years ago. Life is good, and it still will be whenever the inevitable correction comes, hopefully it won't be too severe.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnrealizedPotential I pose this question because in October of 2011 the S and P 500 hit what was technically a sum total 20% intraday downturn from the previous high ,labeling it a bear market.The Dow and Nasdaq in 2011 fared better,but after the 2008-2009 bear market it seemed overkill to have another sharp drop so soon in time.So if the Bull market didn't really start until after October of 2011 this makes it only roughly 2.75 years old and not 5 years into the Bull market.If this is true,and I am only supposing ,then maybe this helps to explain the lack of a 10% correction.We had a nice 6% correction in the SP500 some months ago and nice correction in biotechs in the Nasdaq earlier this year. If my theory is correct maybe,just maybe this Bull Market is not so long in the tooth as was thought.This doesn't mean we won't have a nice correction at some point soon,but I think we may be in better shape than was previously thought.What does everyone else think?

There must be a reason people don't count that intraday event. Was it a flash crash? Regardless, there is probably some criteria involving closing prices.

We've also gone quite a few years without a 10% correction - more like 5 or 6% here and there.

[UnrealizedPotential]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 There must be a reason people don't count that intraday event. Was it a flash crash? Regardless, there is probably some criteria involving closing prices. We've also gone quite a few years without a 10% correction - more like 5 or 6% here and there.

I am not sure but I think it's because at the time the Dow and Nasdaq were not officially in Bear market territory,only the SP500.Whether this Bull market started in 2009 or 2011, we have had a great run!

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst I am not W2R. However... WHEEEE!!!!

I know!!!

Today was yet ANOTHER all time high in net worth, for me. It seems like I have been reaching a new all time high net worth about once a week all year. I could get used to this!

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R I know!!! Today was yet ANOTHER all time high in net worth, for me. It seems like I have been reaching a new all time high net worth about once a week all year. I could get used to this!

That's it! Game over!

[Andre1969]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 There must be a reason people don't count that intraday event. Was it a flash crash? Regardless, there is probably some criteria involving closing prices. We've also gone quite a few years without a 10% correction - more like 5 or 6% here and there.

I just pulled up my spreadsheet, and it doesn't show anything major happening around the October 2011 timeframe. Now, I only have month-end data, so if something major did happen earlier in the month, my records aren't going to show it. But if anything happened, I bounced back from it pretty quick.

FWIW, my investible assets around that timeframe were...
09/30/11: $585K
10/31/11: $642K (so apparently something good happened that month!)
11/30/11: $642K.

As for "flash crash", I googled it, and that event was on May 6, 2010. I had totally forgotten about it. But, that era was my last experience with three down months in a row. They went as follows...

4/23/10: $573K (my peak for the month, and a new high)
5/20/10: $503K (in those days, I'd only keep track of the month's high if it was a record, or the low if it was severe enough)
6/30/10: $496K (that month's low)
7/02/10: $492K (that month's low)
8/9/10: $507K (that month's high).

Now, if I was recording last day of the month back then, who knows...the results might not have looked that bad. Considering July bottomed out on the second day, there's a good chance I may have been above $496k later in the month. But, for whatever reason, I obsessed with those peaks and valleys more, and didn't change to last day of the month until 9/30/11.

[UnrealizedPotential]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andre1969 I just pulled up my spreadsheet, and it doesn't show anything major happening around the October 2011 timeframe. Now, I only have month-end data, so if something major did happen earlier in the month, my records aren't going to show it. But if anything happened, I bounced back from it pretty quick. FWIW, my investible assets around that timeframe were... 09/30/11: $585K 10/31/11: $642K (so apparently something good happened that month!) 11/30/11: $642K. As for "flash crash", I googled it, and that event was on May 6, 2010. I had totally forgotten about it. But, that era was my last experience with three down months in a row. They went as follows... 4/23/10: $573K (my peak for the month, and a new high) 5/20/10: $503K (in those days, I'd only keep track of the month's high if it was a record, or the low if it was severe enough) 6/30/10: $496K (that month's low) 7/02/10: $492K (that month's low) 8/9/10: $507K (that month's high). Now, if I was recording last day of the month back then, who knows...the results might not have looked that bad. Considering July bottomed out on the second day, there's a good chance I may have been above $496k later in the month. But, for whatever reason, I obsessed with those peaks and valleys more, and didn't change to last day of the month until 9/30/11.

My memory is kind of fuzzy about 2011 but I believe the market had been going down quite a bit in 2 or 3 months time up to and including October 2011.When I use the term intraday it means a point of reference during the trading day before closing.In other words,in October of 2011 during the trading day we were down at some point in the SP500 by a total 20% from the previous months high,but may have closed higher than that 20% before the trading day was done.We could have been down that day in October 2011 only half on one percent,but it equaled a total of 20% added over time.

[Lsbcal]

Recently I was trying to answer the question for myself "what were poor months like in bull markets?". I created a chart using monthly data which I'll share but don't be too critical please as it wasn't intended for general viewing.

Here is an explanation:
1) The SP500 (black) is adjusted every so often to keep it on the chart using the log right side scale. What is important is the jogs, not the absolute heights.
2) The RED bars are "corrections" of worse then -5%. These percentage moves are using the left hand scale.
3) The LAVENDAR bars are minor bad months, between 0% and -5%.
4) Notice there are no good months shown (positive return months) as this is just about decline months in long term up markets.
5) The dark blue bands (noted as "in Treasuries") are areas I did not analyze (bear markets) for reasons I won't get into. Again this is chart is just to show bull market bad months.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnrealizedPotential My memory is kind of fuzzy about 2011 but I believe the market had been going down quite a bit in 2 or 3 months time up to and including October 2011. When I use the term intraday it means a point of reference during the trading day before closing...

I must be getting old, as my memory is fuzzy too. However, I have my diary logging daily close values of my portfolio to rely on. What I found was this.

In late 2010, I already recovered to the old personal high water mark in Oct 2007, while the S&P was only 78% of its corresponding high. I was beating the index soundly due to foreign stocks. Both my portfolio and the S&P continued to climb up slowly for the next 6 months, then all hell broke loose. There was a big political debate then, if my memory serves, but I cannot remember what it was about.

The market dropped big the month of Aug 2011, then continued to be very volatile for the next 6 months. See the graph below that shows Dow Jones (DJI), the S&P 500 (SPX), and the NASDAQ (CCO).

[Meadbh]

Here is an article from today's G&M looking at 10 leading indicators of the end of a bull market. Nine of them are adverse.

Is the bull market over? Signs are not encouraging - The Globe and Mail

[Andre1969]

When was it that we had that fiscal cliff scare? It doesn't seem all that long ago, but my memory is getting fuzzy. I'm a government contractor, so I remember them starting to put into place plans to make the gov't people turn in their laptops, iPhones, etc. But then at the last minute, it never happened. I'm guessing that was sometime in 2012? Looking at my records, there were no major downturns that year, other than a quick ~5.8% snap in June (I recovered fully by August), and a ~1.2% drop in October.

Now, the furlough in October 2013 was pretty much a non-event, for me at least. I remember them sending us home on October 1, which was a Tuesday I think. We were off the rest of that week and all of the following week, and came back to work on Thursday of the 3rd week. I ended up seeing a ~3% gain for that month, overall.

[FatCyclist]

Interesting (but not terribly useful) tidbit from CNBC this morning: it has been over 1,000 days since we've had a 10% correction.

[NW-Bound]

I have told this before, but yesterday going to the lumberyard, I saw so much activity. Restaurants and diners along the highway have many cars in their parking lots. It was nothing like 2 or 3 years ago. This neck of the wood of my boonies retreat is an area that lives on weekenders spending money on their 2nd homes, which are more expensive than the locals can afford. People are feeling rich and spending money.

I think the market will continue to go up some more. The VIX is so low. Perhaps people who are late to the game just now pull their cash from under the mattress and start to bid up stocks. The market P/E is not cheap, but not yet at outrageous levels.

I will wait a little more before I start to write some covered calls. The ones I wrote are now deep in-the-money, and I am regretting it. Greed, I know. Hence, I try to nurture some fear to cancel that out, which hopefully will get me to see clearer. I have won and lost a 7-figure number repeatedly, with more win than loss else I would not be here. And I trade much less than many MF managers. Fun, fun, fun...

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound I have won and lost a 7-figure number repeatedly, with more win than loss else I would not be here.

Do I understand you correctly - you have repeatedly won and lost a million dollars in the market?

[NW-Bound]

Yes.

No, I take that back. From top to bottom, meaning losses, I have not lost more than $1M. But from bottom to top, meaning winnings, I have won more than $1M more than once.

[REWahoo]

I knew you were a player but until now didn't realize what league you were in. Impressive.

[FIREd]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo I knew you were a player but until now didn't realize what league you were in. Impressive.

Indeed!