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03-03-2023, 02:25 PM
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#421
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,003
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Fortunately for DB, who recently relocated, the real estate bubble had not yet burst. Their greater ATL area home had three offers above asking price the first day on the market. They accepted one and closed in less than 2 weeks.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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03-03-2023, 03:06 PM
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#422
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,701
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We're seeing it pick up around here too. Prices have stabilized after a modest drop of a few percent.
It is becoming obvious that rates are unlikely to crater any time soon. Might as well buy that house.
I remember my cousin (brand new CPA) complaining about buying their starter home at 10% (1970s). Turns out they made a wise move, it only went up from there. They kind of went through a capitulation process.
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Retired Class of 2018
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03-03-2023, 03:10 PM
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#423
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 2,518
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The number of sales in our area is down considerably year over year, but inventory is down even more. Prices continue to be up either high single digits, or low double digits year over year. There is an extreme housing shortage in our area. Overask sales continue, but only for properties in good condition and in the right locations. Small price deductions are more frequent. Days on market continue to be less than 30.
__________________
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
Pasteur
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03-03-2023, 03:22 PM
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#424
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,263
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Interesting tidbit from recently spending a day looking at new homes. Agent mentioned that as interest rates have gone up that the builder has been reducing prices. It seems that they have a target cost per month for the customer and they have enough flexibility in the pricing to reduce prices as needed to keep that cost per month for the customer steady as interest rates increase.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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03-03-2023, 03:32 PM
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#425
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,665
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
Interesting tidbit from recently spending a day looking at new homes. Agent mentioned that as interest rates have gone up that the builder has been reducing prices. It seems that they have a target cost per month for the customer and they have enough flexibility in the pricing to reduce prices as needed to keep that cost per month for the customer steady as interest rates increase.
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Only the Pre-2000 homes (Hurricane and water pipe codes were significantly updated in 2001), and those not built using concrete block, are taking longer and only those desperate to sell are selling for a little lower than asking, not much though.
I notice more and more folks posting their homes for sale by owner on Zillow or Redfin and offering selling realtors 2%-2.5% if they bring a buyer. you can buy a MLS listing for 3 or 6 months for very little $ if you need too. But being as all local realtors get notified when you post for sale by owner, it is not really necessary.
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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03-03-2023, 03:38 PM
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#426
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 9,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
Interesting tidbit from recently spending a day looking at new homes. Agent mentioned that as interest rates have gone up that the builder has been reducing prices. It seems that they have a target cost per month for the customer and they have enough flexibility in the pricing to reduce prices as needed to keep that cost per month for the customer steady as interest rates increase.
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We saw this happen after the big crash in Southern UT while poking around for a snowbird home...BUT also found lot sizes reduced, common areas made smaller and many "standard" items of lesser quality or less desirable. If you wanted apples to apples it definitely cost more money.
IMO successful builders are a lot like farmers, flexible and able to adjust on the fly. If they don't they won't stay in business.
My favorite part of the whole process was the several longstanding builders in the area let undeveloped or partly developed projects go back to the bank. After some time went by they bought each others failed projects for pennies on the dollars.
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03-03-2023, 05:33 PM
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#427
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,948
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The return of buyers may be short-lived.
Mortgage rates had a peak at 7.08% as measured by the Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US(well, at least a localized peak) in late October/early November. As rates started to fall in January and into February, some on the sidelines who were interested in purchasing (but on the sideline due to higher rates) jumped as 30-year mortgage rates fell about 1% (to 6.09% on Feb 2, 2023).
I have been watching real estate in a particular market for the last 9 months, and I saw a slew of houses that I had marked as interesting all of a sudden go pending in February.
Mortgage rates are now back above 7%.
We all need to remember that pending closures and actual closures are rear view indicators, the houses closing now got offers three weeks or so ago.
The question is what happens now that rates have moved back up. I'm not so sure another big wave of buyers will occur now, or even if rates back off a percentage point. I believe (just a hunch) that the above (a bunch of buyers waiting for rates to drop) won't be as quick or as big in number. Similar in concept to a market index (or stock) that falls to a certain point, a rush of buyers come in to get a bargain, it goes back up, and then falls back to that point again. Each time the low is tested the probability of breaking through the support level goes up...because there are less buyers waiting for a "bargain" at that price level.
I may be talking my book, but I don't think the housing downturn is over.
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03-03-2023, 05:41 PM
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#428
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
The return of buyers may be short-lived.
Mortgage rates had a peak at 7.08% as measured by the Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US(well, at least a localized peak) in late October/early November. As rates started to fall in January and into February, some on the sidelines who were interested in purchasing (but on the sideline due to higher rates) jumped as 30-year mortgage rates fell about 1% (to 6.09% on Feb 2, 2023).
I have been watching real estate in a particular market for the last 9 months, and I saw a slew of houses that I had marked as interesting all of a sudden go pending in February.
Mortgage rates are now back above 7%.
We all need to remember that pending closures and actual closures are rear view indicators, the houses closing now got offers three weeks or so ago.
The question is what happens now that rates have moved back up. I'm not so sure another big wave of buyers will occur now, or even if rates back off a percentage point. I believe (just a hunch) that the above (a bunch of buyers waiting for rates to drop) won't be as quick or as big in number. Similar in concept to a market index (or stock) that falls to a certain point, a rush of buyers come in to get a bargain, it goes back up, and then falls back to that point again. Each time the low is tested the probability of breaking through the support level goes up...because there are less buyers waiting for a "bargain" at that price level.
I may be talking my book, but I don't think the housing downturn is over.
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I do think you are right. Affordability is the issue. But there is strong demand for housing formation also, as we are under-housed. But despite this housing sales have continued to drop in a stalemate with cheap mortgage holders.
Pricing has dropped since the top but not by a lot broadly speaking.
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03-03-2023, 09:26 PM
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#429
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,169
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I never had a mortgage rate as low as 7.1% interest. Never. Not in 40+ years of mortgage payments.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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03-03-2023, 10:01 PM
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#430
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut
I never had a mortgage rate as low as 7.1% interest. Never. Not in 40+ years of mortgage payments.
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Really?
My first was 12.5 pct I think. 2nd was I think 7 pct and they have been 3.5 pct and lower for the past 10-15 yrs.
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03-04-2023, 05:59 AM
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#431
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Punta del Este
Posts: 640
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Market value of our vacation home was up 80% during the peak from what we paid 5 years ago, but that was only on paper. You have to sell to make it real which I have no desire to. Probably now up only 70% instead. Did I lose 10%? No, and that is a terrible way of looking at things! If and when we sell I will hopefully still be happy with the gains what, ever they are, and we will remember all the enjoyment the house gave us! How much money we made by renting it out sometimes, or the great vacations we took while doing home exchanges. Really need to look at the bigger picture sometimes…..
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Retired @age 53 with and moved to Uruguay 2013.
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03-04-2023, 06:11 AM
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#432
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,948
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut
I never had a mortgage rate as low as 7.1% interest. Never. Not in 40+ years of mortgage payments.
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When you had that over 7.1% rate, your house most likely cost a lot less, even in inflation adjusted terms. The issue isn't the rate, it is the overall monthly cost of the home compared (Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance) compared to wages.
Check out this National Association of Realtor data: https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defaul...2023-02-09.pdf
If I were in the market of buying (and i am), I would be in no hurry here as the effect of higher rates works its way...
ETA: One way my thoughts above could be wrong is if inflation stays higher for a longer time and gets entrenched in a wage spiral. In this scenario (ala 70's), even though standards or living aren't increasing the price on real assets (e.g. housing) increases.
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03-04-2023, 07:51 AM
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#433
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,642
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecfo
Really?
My first was 12.5 pct I think. 2nd was I think 7 pct and they have been 3.5 pct and lower for the past 10-15 yrs.
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Being older, I paid the price (from memory):
8 1/4% in CT in 1976 (bought house)
18% in CA when I went to work for Big Oil in 1981.
Refie'd to 10% in 1983 or so.....thought I died and went to heaven.
Moved to Texas in 1992 and assumed a HUD house (fully assumable, non-qualifying loan) with an 8% note until we paid it off in 2014.
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*********Go Astros!*********
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Distribution of Mortgage rates
03-04-2023, 09:19 AM
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#434
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,948
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Distribution of Mortgage rates
With 99% of existing mortgages under the current rate, there will be great reluctance to refinance or move.
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03-04-2023, 09:36 AM
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#435
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,701
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
With 99% of existing mortgages under the current rate, there will be great reluctance to refinance or move.
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You know, this is interesting because this time it's different. And what I mean by that is the spike in the 70s occurred when old timers like my parents didn't have a mortgage. People like my parents got 10 or 15 year mortgages. If they bought in the 50s, they were mortgage free by the 70s. They also had an attitude: pay it off. Period. No refinance or second mortgages.
You also still had a good deal of 1960s people getting shorter term mortgages, so when the spike hit, they had paid off a lot of principal.
So there was nothing or little to refinance.
Ultimately, it is going to take something like a hard recession that forces people to move to shake up those clawing onto their old mortgages.
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Retired Class of 2018
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03-04-2023, 10:57 AM
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#436
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Red Rock Country
Posts: 1,915
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Prices here in the Sedona AZ area may have stabilized if our home is any indication.
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10-09-2023, 09:31 PM
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#437
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Somewhereville
Posts: 780
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Anyone seeing any drastic changes in the market where they live? No bubble bursting is Phoenix yet despite rising interest rates and temperatures.
From Refin for Phoenix:
In August 2023, Phoenix home prices were up 2.3% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $440K. On average, homes in Phoenix sell after 36 days on the market compared to 38 days last year. There were 1,373 homes sold in August this year, down from 1,586 last year.
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10-09-2023, 09:35 PM
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#438
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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3 years ago to build in our ‘hood was 350/sq ft. Today it’s 500+/sq ft. Western Colorado.
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10-09-2023, 10:41 PM
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#439
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: The 850
Posts: 969
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Not bursting (yet) in the FL Panhandle. A lot of curious activity, though - unusual financing, sales happening at list with a lot of debt even at current rates. Last of the FOMO crowd, relieved prices have stopped increasing? Time will tell.
My local market has been driven by the ABNB/VRBO crowd looking for easy money, and this season did not go well. Property tax bills for those higher valuations just got posted and insurance has jumped. Pain ahead, on top of the slower rental season.
As a "it's a bubble and will burst" adherent, it's just a matter of time. Affordability is at all-time lows, sales volume is in the ditch, and rates are not dropping any time soon. Could be wrong, stupidity often lasts longer than a rational person's patience.
I wouldn't buy right now, also not in the window to sell. I can wait for things to play out. Bought my house to live in, don't care what it sells for when/if it's time to move.
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Stay at home slacker dad 2015-August 2024. With the last kid gone, now actually retired
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10-09-2023, 10:50 PM
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#440
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 5,307
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We sold our house in Texas a few months ago. We went under contract very quickly. The market had definitely decreased a bit in price from, say, April of 2022 (probably the peak in our area) but was still a good market.
We then moved to Delaware. Now, my info here is based upon where we were looking for a house (went under contract in July). The market was completely insane. Almost every house (except those with problems or overpriced) was going under contract almost immediately with multiple offers.
I asked my agent how long it would take for us to find a house to buy. Inventory was very low. I had been warned by others that it could take several months. She said it depended partly on when we found a house we wanted to buy. Having done that, she said it would depend on how long it took us to understand how to make an offer that someone would accept. I had been following the market online for a few months and knew how competitive it was. Even before we left Texas I would see a house come on the market in Delaware and go under contract immediately and almost always selling above list price. So, we assimilated all the information and went under contract on the first house where we made an offer.
Of course, I assume that things are slowing down now since it usually does in the fall...
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