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Old 07-02-2022, 08:10 AM   #101
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Last week there was an article in the WSJ about rents going up. Apparently in some major markets, people are bidding above the asked rent to get the place. As more people with money hold off on buying, they’re renting and willing to pay for a nice place to wait it out.

During the 2008-9 crash, rental demand went up. Some walked away from homes that were severely underwater and rented instead.
Are people underwater already? I look at the 800k home for sale in my neighborhood and I think...how would anyone be able to afford that. And if they could I would want a better location as the home has no privacy. Glad I bought in 2014. I did buy above my price range and above my affordability number knowing it was the home we would raise a family in. We had no furniture for at least a year but now I refi down to a 15yr no sweat. With inflation comes high salary. If you would have told me in 2014 that in less than 7 yrs we would be clearing 250k annual salary I wouldn't have believed it.
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Old 07-02-2022, 08:17 AM   #102
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I've definitely seen a slowdown in the Minneapolis market. I just set up a showing for a customer for Monday the 4th. In the past there was no way the house would be on the market for 4 days. Now it's becoming more the norm.
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Old 07-02-2022, 08:41 AM   #103
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Here in the NC mountains resort area where I am there many rentals still available for this holiday weekend at the rental companies, VRBO and Air BnB, some are advertising reduced rents for July. That has never happened here in all the years I have been coming here (at least 10 years.) Normally there is not a rental to be found for July 4th weekend.
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Old 07-02-2022, 09:03 AM   #104
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In our area I would certainly not call it a burst other than yes the crazy has stopped and we are going back to more sanity.

Now that inventory is building you actually have a choice between home A or B, so you still may get 2 offers on A because its got a better lot, better design choices etc and B may have to lower its price or wait for the other home to sell so its again the only choice because it is sub-par.

New construction is still selling decently though I see they have offered more lower end homes by not upgrading them as much so the price looks better.

We shall see, there are 2 homes listing this week on the same street and an existing Opendoor (that was $50k overpriced). If the market has really burst it will show up in the sale of the home that is listed as "coming soon". Its about $12k underpriced, I assume for a quick sale, if it doesn't sell immediately then I will feel like the market is actually getting soft soft and prices will start to decrease rather than just stop increasing so insanely.
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Old 07-02-2022, 09:19 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Scuba View Post
Last week there was an article in the WSJ about rents going up. Apparently in some major markets, people are bidding above the asked rent to get the place. As more people with money hold off on buying, they’re renting and willing to pay for a nice place to wait it out.

During the 2008-9 crash, rental demand went up. Some walked away from homes that were severely underwater and rented instead.
One other thing happened. The Boomerang generation came back to live with mom and dad.
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Old 07-02-2022, 12:02 PM   #106
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Houses here are still getting multiple offers above asking prices, which are already crazy high, and selling within a two hour open house. Inventory is still a bit low.
Where is here?
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Old 07-02-2022, 12:11 PM   #107
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Where is here?
IIRC - Meleana downsized from a large property in NY to a smaller place in New Hampshire . . . I remember thinking how beautiful the NY property sounded as described, although we would not buy another place in NY.
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Old 07-02-2022, 01:40 PM   #108
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When recession is going to set up, it will, depend on neighborhood.
They don't historically. In in 2008-2009, rents only dropped 2% nationally and rebounded within 6 months. Rents are extremely sticky generally. Individual markets sure but I wouldn't bet on it in general.
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Old 07-02-2022, 03:42 PM   #109
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Rents have not appreciated like the high level on the properties.

Current property prices are mostly too high now to be covered by the more realistic rent payments. Property prices need to come down to match rents or rents need to go up anther 30%

Rent prices are much more linked to affordability than property speculation.
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Old 07-02-2022, 03:54 PM   #110
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How are home prices in Vegas, comparable to DFW?
I would say that are fairly comparable in terms of median. The median is maybe a little higher in Las Vegas but not by much. Las Vegas is smaller than DFW obviously and you don't have as much range in prices. In DFW some houses are quite a bit less expensive because they are really on the outskirts. Las Vegas is geographically smaller so that isn't as much of a factor. In fact, many of the more expensive homes are on the outskirts. It is just that by DFW standards we wouldn't think of them as being very far away.

The other thing is that lots of houses in Las Vegas have very small lots. And, it is not unusual to see SF homes that are under 1500 SF. We don't see that in DFW so much except for houses that are specifically built as patio homes or villas. But, in Las Vegas, lots of houses listed have no real yard to speak of and the houses are very close together.
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Old 07-02-2022, 04:07 PM   #111
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But, in Las Vegas, lots of houses listed have no real yard to speak of and the houses are very close together.


I'd much rather have a smallish house on bigger lot so the neighbors are waaaaay over there and I don't have to hear their every belch and word.
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Old 07-02-2022, 04:54 PM   #112
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I've followed our home's Zillow estimate for over two years. Over the past month to six weeks, the estimated price has leveled off (no change when it had been inching up every week) and over the past two weeks it has dropped slightly twice in a row. This is in the Sedona, AZ area which is popular with tourists. The median age of residents is high (lots of retirees) and there are many second homes. In the three years since we bought, Zillow has our home up 95%. In three years nearly half the homes on our street have sold. All the homes on our street are more than 25 years old.
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Old 07-02-2022, 05:37 PM   #113
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Rents have not appreciated like the high level on the properties.

Current property prices are mostly too high now to be covered by the more realistic rent payments. Property prices need to come down to match rents or rents need to go up anther 30%

Rent prices are much more linked to affordability than property speculation.
Possibly in your area but nationwide rents have only trailed median housing prices by about 10%, and are likely to continue to rise much faster. See WSJ article on rent bidding wars last week
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Old 07-02-2022, 08:03 PM   #114
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I've always wondered back when Prop 13 was first passed how many homeowners were smart enough to move their home from their individual name(s) to a company name.

Then just transfer the company stock when selling so any new owner keeps the tax basis...e.g. 1234 Main Street has remained owned by "ACME Properties, Inc." since 1978.
If >50% of company stock changes hands, it triggers property tax revaluation. Also companies are required to report annually whether that trigger occurred. So I think, fraud would be involved.
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Old 07-02-2022, 09:28 PM   #115
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If >50% of company stock changes hands, it triggers property tax revaluation. Also companies are required to report annually whether that trigger occurred. So I think, fraud would be involved.
Corporate changes in control trigger reassessment. The SBE used to track these and inform the county assessors affected.
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Old 07-02-2022, 10:12 PM   #116
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The bubble already burst. The public and financial news will figure it out later this year.
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Old 07-03-2022, 06:58 AM   #117
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But, in Las Vegas, lots of houses listed have no real yard to speak of and the houses are very close together.


I'd much rather have a smallish house on bigger lot so the neighbors are waaaaay over there and I don't have to hear their every belch and word.
It really depends on the neighbors. We downsized from a 4300 sq ft house on almost a half acre, to a 2500 sq ft house on 5500 sq ft lot, and our little patio home is not nearly as impacted by neighbor noise as the big lot home. The only regret I have is the bigger home more than doubled in value since our move in 2013, while the smaller home has appreciated a little less than 50%.
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:02 AM   #118
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Some evidence of softening or certainly lower growth here in my area in Northern Va. Brand new houses to our west are much more expensive and with higher rates for now that seems like a no-go, but possibly makes values in established neighborhoods more sticky.

Prices probably consolidate for a while but I expect mortgage rates to soften a bit (and ultimately quite a lot), so this may be short lived. This is suburban DC so always more govt employees and companies moving here.

I think we could have a good time to buy in 2nd home areas if rates stay at these levels for a year to 18 mo.
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:26 AM   #119
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They don't historically. In in 2008-2009, rents only dropped 2% nationally and rebounded within 6 months. Rents are extremely sticky generally. Individual markets sure but I wouldn't bet on it in general.
In 2008-2011 RE prices dropped a lot, even in the hottest RE market like SF Bay Area and DW and I purchased our 2nd rental condo. Of course every neighborhood has different values and demand.
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:27 AM   #120
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In my area the price of homes is commensurate with the crime rate in NYC. Housing prices are through the roof but people are not selling thus low inventory. Younger folks will never and I really mean never be able to afford to live in the town in which they were raised or even nearby. (Jersey Shore) mecca for NY'ers.
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