Is the sky falling? Dow is way down any hope

[Sunny101]

for a rally before Christmas. Thanks PS All thought wimsical or thoughtful much apprciated.
Sunny

 

[brewer12345]

Dunno. Maybe. IMO, a lot of the selling is being done regardless of price or value, so I could easily see things rebounding short term.

But who cares? If you are investing in stocks, it should be for the long term (10+ years).

 

[Andy R]

I would not hold your breath for a Rally this year. I think the bears are out of hibernation and they are not going back to sleep for some time. After every party there is some cleaning up that needs to be done and usually a hangover to deal with. Of course, I could be wrong...

 

[Gumby]

After consulting the oracle, throwing the bones, reading the tea leaves, and extensively calculating the relative positions of the sun, moon and stars, (also taking into account, of course, the prophecies of Nostrodamus) my 100% guaranteed accurate forecast is that, over the next 6.5 months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . will fluctuate.

 

[RetireeRobert]

for a rally before Christmas. Thanks PS All thought wimsical or thoughtful much apprciated.
Sunny

Yes it's falling.

No hope.

 

[REWahoo]

All thought wimsical or thoughtful much apprciated.

Here's a 'wimsical' thought : I don't know if the market will rally any time soon and I don't really care. I've got a life to live and enjoy, and I'm not about to waste much of it fretting about market fluctuations.

Next question....

 

[Zathras]

Yes, the market will absolutely rally....

Unless it doesn't

 

[W2R]

Any hope of a rally before Christmas?

Sure! Anything could happen between now and then. There could be a rally (and I think there might be one, but how big? Hard telling). Or, the market could plunge further.

It seems to me that the worst market declines don't usually happen over Christmas, though I have no idea why not. Maybe I just haven't noticed.

 

[2B]

I tend to be in the camp that firmly believes the stock market will vary in price. However, I have been highly bullish for several years and still am. The "credit crunch" is an issue but it will get digested over the next few months. We may have a bank or two go under but I really don't think so. After that, we still have very high amounts of cash on the sidelines. The petrodollars need to be invested and right now the USA is "on sale." World growth is still strong.

The final bullish straw was cast on the camel's back this week. My SIL has informed DW that they have liquidated their stock holdings completely. Her husband is predicting a major price collapse. If they are typical of the investment community, we're about to turn the corner.

 

[haha]

I tend to be in the camp that firmly believes the stock market will vary in price. However, I have been highly bullish for several years and still am. The "credit crunch" is an issue but it will get digested over the next few months. We may have a bank or two go under but I really don't think so. After that, we still have very high amounts of cash on the sidelines. The petrodollars need to be invested and right now the USA is "on sale." World growth is still strong.

The final bullish straw was cast on the camel's back this week. My SIL has informed DW that they have liquidated their stock holdings completely. Her husband is predicting a major price collapse. If they are typical of the investment community, we're about to turn the corner.

For your sake, I hope you are better at predicting stock movements than you are at crude oil.

Ha

 

[twaddle]

Our economy has been remarkably resilient for the last few years. It'll be interesting to see if we can withstand everything that's being thrown at it now.

If we can make it past the largest housing bust in our history + an oil shock + going into debt over a dumb war + a credit crunch + a falling dollar without a deep prolonged recession, then I will become a cheerleading bull like you've never seen before.

I'm not saying a recession is inevitable, but if it happens, I just want everybody to promise not to blame the new democratic adminstration and the new higher tax rates. OK?

 

[DJRR]

My bet is on up for the rest of the year - too much negativity to keep things down My tea leaves show that my portfolio is still up 14% since the August break, so this break has not been nearly as broad based as August which killed me in every asset class. Once the financials turn this market is going to make new highs.

Plus I have actively considered shorting some stocks which is a sure sign of a turn

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

i predict the stock market will rally before real estate does.

 

[ziggy29]

I hear so much negative sentiment that I can't help but think it's a good contrarian sign for the market. Just the same, other than occasional rebalancing to buy more of whatever has recently been selling for less, most of what I have is in the market for 20-30 years or more so I'm not worried about it.

What the market does in the next couple of years has zero impact on where the market is in 20 years. All that will matter, plus or minus a margin of tracking error and short-term sentiment, is the health of corporate earnings.

 

[2B]

For your sake, I hope you are better at predicting stock movements than you are at crude oil.

Ha

Well taken but there is still a massive glut of crude oil on the market. It's totally in the hand of speculators. There is no oil "shortage."

 

[2B]

I'm not saying a recession is inevitable, but if it happens, I just want everybody to promise not to blame the new democratic adminstration and the new higher tax rates. OK?

The dems blamed Bush II for the recession that began before he took office. You certainly don't expect special treatment do you?

The dems have all the hallmarks of causing their own demise. There is a line of tax increases in the works. History says that will create an economic slowdown.

My suggestion is to become a political agnostic. They all do their own damage to the economy. Watch what goes on while they are in control and make your own estimates of the future. Being "in love" with any political ideology is usually detrimental to your financial well being.

 

[retire@40]

Real estate is in the crapper.

Bond and CD interest rates are in the neutral zone.

The stock market is still the place to be since the fundamentals (such as strong earnings) are still good.

 

[Running_Man]

I wonder what will happen if there is an actual decline of significance?. Other than the financial issues, stocks have been up almost all year in the face of tremendous negative fundamentals. A truly major decline will be avoided if the banks do not actually have to come up with cold hard cash to repay the bad loan bets they have made. Right now there is a bunch of non-cash writedowns, it is the actual negative cash flow that would hurt the market.

 

[FIREd]

I hope that markets stay about where they are today. I am still up about 7% YTD. I would be happy with that. This latest downturn has not affected my portfolio as negatively as the August downturn did.

 

[unclemick]

Even with my dividend stocks averaged in with my Target Retirement 2015 - my current yield is ballpark 3%ish.

What would be comfy for my retirement would a nice quick 5 or 6000 point drop in the DOW to bring current yield closer to recent past decades.

Plus there might be more sectors of the market to go shopping since the Saint's aren't doing that well this year.

heh heh heh - just kidding - the market will fluctuate - after forty years(since 1966) it's had to get that excited anymore. Of course every generation there are always some rookies that get excited until they settle down and follow instructions.

 

[Brat]

Because the Asian/Australian markets are open ahead of us it looks like a down day 11/12. Doesn't bode well or our opening tomorrow.

Stocks will fluctuate but I don't see an up trend-line in the next couple months. Save a little cash to pick up good stocks.

 

[kcowan]

I entered a contest last December and I picked DOW 12,900 for YE. Sadly I am getting more correct every day. maybe even optimistic! When it was over 14k, my peers thought I was a pessimist.

 

[Peaceful_Warrior]

After consulting the oracle, throwing the bones, reading the tea leaves, and extensively calculating the relative positions of the sun, moon and stars, (also taking into account, of course, the prophecies of Nostrodamus)

You do that too? And here I was thinking that I am the only one...

Sometimes it's nice to feel a little less alone in this crazy world

 

[haha]

As I read the DJI chart, it is still in an uptrend, with higher highs and lower lows. It wold take a close below about 12,500, or a filure to best about 14,200 on the next upswing. So, the DJI at least is still trending upward and not a lot can be said about what might happen from a technical POV.

Not that technical POV necessarily matters.

Ha

 

[In-control]

Their are some indications of a economic slow down - not a recession. Companies are beginning to project lower 2008 earnings, indicating that they see their growth in revenue shrinking. This may also be related the price of fuel. Living thru several recessions and the stagflation period in the 70's the one component that struck me was high un-employment. We are as close to full-employment as you can get. When people have jobs they spend. I believe that the banking industry has another year or two to filter out their bad debt and that will be a drag on the financial sector in 2008. The good thing is that many of the lenders have announced their exposure - allowing for the impact to be priced into their stock price. If you look at the dollar value dropping - It can be viewed as an economic boost. Instead of money leaving the US it will be coming in - especially in the housing market - which started this mess.

I keep holding to my portfolio allocation of 40/40/20 to help keep my sanity. The 20 is 4-5 years of living expenses which reduces my need to take knee jerk reactions. I have stopped listening to the news casts as one day everything is rosy and the next its in the toilet - reminding me that news is not advise but noise to sell advertisement!

Every time I get a little nervous I read my Early Retirement books re-visit my holdings and gain re-assurance.

Just my two cents!