Is the worst behind us?

[Bestwifeever]

I was very surprised to read this personal-finance article this morning:

Retirees face uncertain future -- chicagotribune.com

which seems to be urging retirees to sell off (so if capitulation is a condition of hitting the bottom, we're getting close

Quote:

Whenever someone needs safe investments for income, and they morph into something riskier, a rule of thumb is to sell without waiting. Early action keeps a small loss from turning into a worse loss. Still, Blum said, if a person can get $6 by selling a bank preferred stock, that's better than nothing. If they can recover a quarter of what they spent on a bond, that's better than nothing too.

and

Quote:

But Chicago financial planner Bruce Weininger said he wouldn't try to predict the future: "When the value of companies is unknowable, we do not hold them." For a person depending on income from investments, he would be inclined to sell the impaired stock or bond and keep the money secure, perhaps in certificates of deposit.

[hankster]

I found an interesting chart on another forum showing the correlation between lows in consumer confidence and economic recoveries. This could be a positive indication Nowhere to go but up?

[FUEGO]

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki BBC NEWS | World | Lion Mutilates 42 Midgets in Cambodian Ring-Fight

This is a horrible story! I actually triple checked the domain name to make sure it wasn't an Onion article. Unfortunately, it is not.

The mere existence of a Cambodian Midget Fighting League is also a shocker. And the government gave them a green light to hold this competition - as long as they got 50% of the ticket revenue. This is wrong on so many levels...

Edited to add: Good news it is fake. It definitely set off "hoax" alarms, but I never followed through to see what domain it really was hosted at. Funny story though now that I know it is fake. But based on what I know of Cambodians, this story just as easily could have been real!

[cantlogin]

Hoax!

Cambodian Midget Fighting League - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[HFWR]

I think there's still a bit of pain and suffering left to endure. But I'm whistling past the graveyard sticking with my AA, and rebalancing when the spreadsheet says to.

[calmloki]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cantlogin Hoax! Cambodian Midget Fighting League - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Spoilsport!

snopes.com: Lion vs. Midget

Fooled me, though it stretched credulity to think that the match was allowed to continue till all 42 were killed or wounded

[SonnyJim]

Why would you put any faith into what Bernake says now. If he knew that much he could have seen the train wreck coming and fixed it. I don't think that anyone has a clue where this is going and certainly they don't have a clue on how to correct it. So, if he says that the recession or "recent economic contraction" should be easing by the end of the year, I would be glad to see what his well reasoned basis, backed by data, was for his new-found brilliance and clairvoyance.

I am going to go out on a limb and state that it will be over when it is over and not any sooner. Anyone that says otherwise is just blowing smoke.

[Bikerdude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonnyJim I am going to go out on a limb and state that it will be over when it is over and not any sooner. Anyone that says otherwise is just blowing smoke.

Thank you Yogi.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonnyJim I am going to go out on a limb and state that it will be over when it is over and not any sooner. Anyone that says otherwise is just blowing smoke.

The original question was "Is the worst behind us?"

SPX is down a little over 50% as of today's close. Another 50% would take it to 375.

So I would definitely say that the worst is behind us, barring nuclear warfare.

Although many things can't be known, many other things may be very high probability bets. This is one of those things.

Ha

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonnyJim Anyone that says otherwise is just blowing smoke.

Finally someone has come up with a good idea!

[audreyh1]

Jim O'Shannessy on CNBC today definitely sees "the worst is behind us" even taking in the worst case doom and gloom scenarios.

[Trying to paraphrase accurately] Even if it takes another decade to recover the peak - lasting as long as the '66 to '82 period or the great depression - that's a 6% real annual return on equities from here which is NOT A BAD THING and beats the cash and bond return potentials.

Audrey

[Donzo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Jim O'Shannessy on CNBC today definitely sees "the worst is behind us" even taking in the worst case doom and gloom scenarios. [Trying to paraphrase accurately] Even if it takes another decade to recover the peak - lasting as long as the '66 to '82 period or the great depression - that's a 6% real annual return on equities from here which is NOT A BAD THING and beats the cash and bond return potentials. Audrey

From his lips to the markets ears.... . I am still holding and considering another re-allocation

[Dawg52]

I heard some dude(Zimmerman?) on Fox yesterday say we were already in a depression. Can't give you any details as I changed the channel.