Is the worst behind us?

[REWahoo]

This report indicates we may have already experienced the worst of the recession and although the economy may not be improving, it may be getting worse at a decreasing rate.

Prosperity may not be just around the corner, but statistical evidence is mounting to suggest that the worst of this recession may soon be past.

Signs of Life

 

[Bestwifeever]

There is only one person who can answer your question
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Ziggy!

 

[bbbamI]

Is the worst behind us?

Disco ball cloudy these days?

 

[CuppaJoe]

Yet another trick thread title. Some medical experts say that the worst fat is the kind on the middle of the front.

All this said, the economy is still a long way from a pink-cheeked state of health.

So maybe they are talking about body image?

 

[Spanky]

The economy seems to get worse as more news of workforce restructuring persist.

 

[CompoundInterestFan]

I think I've seen articles hinting/guessing/hoping that the worst is over for the last 6 months to a year. I'd be really curious to see a study about how the information age has influenced economic cycles. Not just the professionals, but the general public is now subject to a constant barrage of financial analysis, what ifs, what to dos, etc.. I don't know, I keep thinking about that adage about a watched pot. It feels like if we just keep asking whether or not the worst is over, that will somehow speed it up.

 

[Dawg52]

God I hope so. Hopefully we have taken the worst blow to the mid section. Bernake is hinting that we may be coming out of the recession by the end of the year. I'm just glad to see some 'hopeful' talk for a change.

 

[MichaelB]

It’s too early. Most of the items in Kellner’s list are not reliable data sources or leading indicators. His list is inconclusive at best.

Case-Schiller data was released yesterday which, if anything, shows a slight acceleration in the rate of decline in prices in 18 of the 20 regions tracked.

The ECRI WLI is (arguably) more reliable than the conference board is not showing a meaningful change in leading indicators.

Real hourly earnings rose at a YTY rate of 3.9% in current dollars, holding the same pace for over a year. This is probably the most positive number anywhere.

It is very hard to see a change in inflection while housing prices decline.

Still, it’s hard to disagree with his conclusion

And before you inundate me with email alleging that I am out of touch with the real world, let me say right at the top that I am not for one moment saying that the economy has stopped sliding. I am only suggesting that it appears to be contracting at a slower pace.

Contracting at a slower pace is like a Doctor saying your condition is still worsening, but just not as quickly.

 

[Dennis]

IMO? over 45% of the market is Due to ? > "Market Sentiment"...or what the Public Precieves it to be..

Semantics> Most Bear Sayers are Too Generalistic and not wanting to be nailed down to specifics.. thus talk in General terms to claim they wre right.. Just like So many firms and Funds claim they Beat the S&P and can do so, even if that margin is only .0001%

When I was Self Employed and running my Limo Business? As long as Our Business stayed Good ? I liked the idea of Being Able a) Fire Underperformers and (b) hire "over qualified" chauffeurs..for a change..and so did our customers..and many of thsoe over Qualified people stayed on afterwards and bought Our Limo Franchises and stayed with us for yrs after.. Thus the Old Silver Lining Trick..

Our Local School District is doing the same thing. getting Much better Teachers and staff that are more willing to Have a 20% Lower paying Job, but much safer for them in the long run..

Been Noted that Catipliller is able to do the same thing and over 30% of those "20,000" being fired and laid off are Deadwood ..they couldn't get rid of beforehand.. and I wouldn't doubt the same for the Auto & many other Co.'s are taking advantage of this as well..

and makes alot of people be alot more Humble going forward, after being so Over paid , Over Confident in their worth and Arrogant for several yrs..

 

[audreyh1]

The ECRI WLI is (arguably) more reliable than the conference board is not showing a meaningful change in leading indicators.

Well, it (the growth rate) was going doing precipitously. And it has stabilized somewhat over the last couple of months. Not going back up anymore. But at least it stopped dropping down so fast and came up just a little before stabilizing.

That's gotta mean something!

Audrey

 

[REWahoo]

Been Noted that Catipliller is able to do the same thing and over 30% of those "20,000" being fired and laid off are Deadwood ..they couldn't get rid of beforehand..

Dennis, can you provide a source for this information?

 

[Gpond]

I went to all cash yesterday. One day wonders are hallmarks of bear markets. Heard way to many blue skies ahead bottom calls yesterday.

 

[REWahoo]

I went to all cash yesterday. One day wonders are hallmarks of bear markets. Heard way to many blue skies ahead bottom calls yesterday.

Please let us know when/if you get back in.

 

[FinanceDude]

This is NOT the bottom. See my disclaimer in my sig line..........

Bernanke determined that "piling on" gloom and doom in an already bad situation was not helpful.

I think a couple traders on CNBC a couple weeks ago had it right, until the financial stocks rebound, confidence in the market is shaky at best.

 

[HFWR]

Technology is Increasing the Speed of Our Lives Faster than our ability to logically understand future consequence

I believe this was also true in the days of smoke signals and the Pony Express...

 

[MichaelB]

Well, it (the growth rate) was going doing precipitously. And it has stabilized somewhat over the last couple of months. Not going back up anymore. But at least it stopped dropping down so fast and came up just a little before stabilizing.

That's gotta mean something!

Audrey

I know what you mean and feel the same way. But look at the graph. link (note - may require free registration, which has been spam free for me for years) Bottom of the page, middle graph, top green line. Staying at that level - well, if we're in the toilet but not yet flushed, I guess it's positive to say we haven't been flushed down the toilet. But the reality is we're still in the toilet...

 

[calmloki]

I keep throwing little bits into the market - we're mostly in property, so pretty much a piker compared to you all in the stock world. Seems like these are the days for a day trader rather than a buy-and-holder, but i lack several things: tomorrow's newspaper, stock knowledge, and a great clanking set. Market kinda makes me feel like one of the guys in this story:
BBC NEWS | World | Lion Mutilates 42 Midgets in Cambodian Ring-Fight

 

[CuppaJoe]

I went to all cash yesterday. One day wonders are hallmarks of bear markets. Heard way to many blue skies ahead bottom calls yesterday.

Good grief, can you tell us more. What percentage were you two days ago?

 

[cashbalancetrouble]

NOW THAT IS FUNNY! AND SAD! AND STUPID!

I can't wait for the Government DVD to come out.

Did their Prez say they all had to sacrifice?

I wonder if they think the worst is over too?

I hope they sent the Lion back home after his stimulus visit.

 

[Gpond]

Please let us know when/if you get back in.

Will do (If I can). I start a 2 day packout tomorrow and fly out next Wednesday with a 1 day/night in Paris and start my new j*b on March 6th. Just one less thing to worry about right now. Also, I don't know what kind of internet access I will have available. I went to Reno for one week this month and came back and my portfolio was down 11.2% - in a week.

 

[Bestwifeever]

I was very surprised to read this personal-finance article this morning:

Retirees face uncertain future -- chicagotribune.com

which seems to be urging retirees to sell off (so if capitulation is a condition of hitting the bottom, we're getting close

Whenever someone needs safe investments for income, and they morph into something riskier, a rule of thumb is to sell without waiting. Early action keeps a small loss from turning into a worse loss. Still, Blum said, if a person can get $6 by selling a bank preferred stock, that's better than nothing. If they can recover a quarter of what they spent on a bond, that's better than nothing too.

and

But Chicago financial planner Bruce Weininger said he wouldn't try to predict the future: "When the value of companies is unknowable, we do not hold them." For a person depending on income from investments, he would be inclined to sell the impaired stock or bond and keep the money secure, perhaps in certificates of deposit.

 

[hankster]

I found an interesting chart on another forum showing the correlation between lows in consumer confidence and economic recoveries. This could be a positive indication Nowhere to go but up?

 

[FUEGO]

BBC NEWS | World | Lion Mutilates 42 Midgets in Cambodian Ring-Fight

This is a horrible story! I actually triple checked the domain name to make sure it wasn't an Onion article. Unfortunately, it is not.

The mere existence of a Cambodian Midget Fighting League is also a shocker. And the government gave them a green light to hold this competition - as long as they got 50% of the ticket revenue. This is wrong on so many levels...

Edited to add: Good news it is fake. It definitely set off "hoax" alarms, but I never followed through to see what domain it really was hosted at. Funny story though now that I know it is fake. But based on what I know of Cambodians, this story just as easily could have been real!

 

[cantlogin]

Hoax!

Cambodian Midget Fighting League - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[HFWR]

I think there's still a bit of pain and suffering left to endure. But I'm [-]whistling past the graveyard[/-] sticking with my AA, and rebalancing when the spreadsheet says to.