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12-11-2018, 07:49 AM
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#21
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,696
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In the overall scheme of things, 2018 hasn't been particularly jittery. It's just because the Dow, Nasdaq, and SP500 have gotten so high numerically, that the point spreads start looking scary. And, if you have a large balance, you're going to see big dollar swings. But, if you keep it in perspective, and look at the percentages instead, it doesn't seem so bad.
Personally though, I think 2018 has been annoying, because of a few "false starts". Back around the end of January, I think my portfolio was actually up around 5% so it seemed like 2018 was off to a great start. But then it cratered. However, things did improve, and around August/September, I think I was up around 6-7% for the year. Then October hit, and wiped out my gains for the year. November bounced back a bit, but I haven't bothered to calculate anything for December yet, so I might still be down for the year. Still, "down for the year" is a far cry from "wiped out".
There's another, personal reason though, that I think 2018 has been annoying for me. There was a few times that I came really close to the $2M milestone mark, for net worth. But, then I bought a house in September, and then with market losses, it seems like that $2M milestone keeps slipping further away. I know I'll cross that threshold eventually, and logically I know that it's not like anything truly magical happens once we hit these various thresholds. But, still, I want to get there!
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12-11-2018, 08:00 AM
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#22
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Posts: 382
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre1969
There's another, personal reason though, that I think 2018 has been annoying for me. There was a few times that I came really close to the $2M milestone mark, for net worth.
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I'm in a similar situation - we're thisclose to FI, and keep falling backwards. It's making DH and I grumpy! I do have to laugh at myself - first world problems!
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12-11-2018, 09:16 AM
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#23
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjflyman
Some of the members here are saying this is a normal market, and no big deal.
I disagree, this is the most volatile market that I can remember and I'm 59. Yes, there were occasional big drops before, but I don't ever remember getting up day after day and expecting 300-500 point drops every day.(except maybe in 2008)
Tune out all the opinions of the member here and give it your own eye test. What do you see.
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Even though it was written back in March, this might clear up some of your confusion:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/...need-a-hi.aspx
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12-11-2018, 09:47 AM
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#24
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,696
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea
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Thanks for posting that chart; it's a real eye opener. Interesting that, even in the Great Recession, two of the biggest Dow gains were in October of 2008. The main thing I remember was that it seemed like everything started tanking in September, crashed even worse in October, and then bottomed out around Thanksgiving. But, even in that ~3 month plummet, it wasn't a total free-fall.
I wonder how 9/11/01 would have factored in, if the markets hadn't been closed down as a result of the tragedy, and the ensuing panic?
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12-11-2018, 09:52 AM
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#25
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Weatherford Texas
Posts: 456
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dtbach
Got an unsolicited email from some stock market guru with this opening:
Dear Investor,
Jack Bogle is a legend on Wall Street.
As the father of passive investing, he’s arguably done more for the average investor than any other person in history.
He’s also witnessed every type of market condition imaginable.
Which is why his comments on the record amount of volatility we’ve seen this year made headlines.
Here’s what he said…
“I have never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career. Now that’s only 66 years, so I shouldn’t make too much about it… I’ve seen two 50% declines, I’ve seen a 25% decline in one day and I’ve never seen anything like this before.” — Jack Bogle, Vanguard Founder Make no mistake, this historic bull market is in uncharted waters.
And the constant roller coaster in stocks only makes investors even more uneasy.
Is this a valid statement? I'm thinking the market has been a great deal more volatile in past times.
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I got the same email. At first glance it seemed legit, like something official from Vanguard.
__________________
Retired June 1, 2018
RE AA 65/35
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12-11-2018, 09:54 AM
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#26
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maenad
I'm in a similar situation - we're thisclose to FI, and keep falling backwards. It's making DH and I grumpy! I do have to laugh at myself - first world problems!
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Add me to the grumpy club too. I've gotten to the point of almost dreading crossing my milestone because everytime I do, the market takes it away.
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12-11-2018, 09:57 AM
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#27
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Severn
Posts: 947
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
+1
I suspect the media may be the "something else ".
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Just saw this. Fear and doom is overblown.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...e_economy.html
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12-11-2018, 09:59 AM
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#28
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 276
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I have been trading the heck out of this and making money out of nothing at all (out of nothing at all)
Just this morning I sold 500 shares of SPY for $267 that I bought yesterday for $259.80.
I mean that is over $3500 for doing nothing but a couple mouse clicks. Probably I can buy it again for $259 in a couple days. Seems wrong, too easy.
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12-11-2018, 10:05 AM
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#29
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 998
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What could possibly go wrong?
__________________
"I couldn't wait for success, so I went ahead without it." Ret. 2013 @ 51.
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12-11-2018, 10:07 AM
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#30
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,373
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12-11-2018, 10:08 AM
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#31
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrencewendall
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That was hilarious. Thanks for the laughs.
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12-11-2018, 10:10 AM
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#32
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 276
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Quote:
Originally Posted by almost there
What could possibly go wrong?
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That is my thought too? What is the worst that can happen here? I am stuck holding 500 shares of an index fund, while having a yearly gain of over 140%.
I am not on margin, so no risk there. I could miss out on some gains if a Santa Claus rally takes hold, but with the market so volatile and at the very least fairly valued if not a bit over valued, I don't think there is much of a risk of SPY shooting up to $400 over a month period.
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12-11-2018, 10:11 AM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,806
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Market is up 0.01% as I type.
Is everything OK now?
-ERD50
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12-11-2018, 10:16 AM
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#34
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 998
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I traded for years. Sleep so much better being out of the market. lol lol Too much drama for me. But knock yourself out!
__________________
"I couldn't wait for success, so I went ahead without it." Ret. 2013 @ 51.
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12-11-2018, 10:29 AM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
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__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
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12-11-2018, 10:35 AM
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#36
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 412
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A couple of observations on this topic:
Volatility is usually defined to be the standard deviation of annual returns. In a short term market you could just say it is the standard deviation of daily valuation of the S&P 500. In any event, it is commonly associated with the standard deviation.
The VIX is derived from a weighted average of puts and calls, so it is not the same as what an investor experiences. It is more forward looking, a measure of what investors think the market is going to do, not so much what it is doing.
The standard deviation is going to be affected by both market jumps and market declines. But nobody calls a rising market volatile. But if the standard deviation is higher for some period of time, that could mean the market is going up, so using the std dev as a measure of market declines is not accurate either.
I personally don't sweat short term movements and rarely pay attention to those. I worry more about long term movement - a 10% crash that lasts 2 years is far worse than a 20% crash that lasts 1 month.
There have been 52 crash/corrections (10% or greater) since 1926. In the first 30 years we averaged 7.1 crashes/decade, in the subsequent 40 years we averaged about 7.5/decade. In that regard, the market now (the last couple of decades) is about the same as it was 80 years ago.
[edit]
This market does not feel especially volatile to me. It feels like typical unpredictable market behavior. In any event it is out of my control so I ignore it.
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12-11-2018, 10:46 AM
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#37
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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I just think of it as a "Gift from the God's"!
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12-11-2018, 11:26 AM
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#38
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 1,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre1969
There's another, personal reason though, that I think 2018 has been annoying for me. There was a few times that I came really close to the $2M milestone mark, for net worth. But, then I bought a house in September, and then with market losses, it seems like that $2M milestone keeps slipping further away. I know I'll cross that threshold eventually, and logically I know that it's not like anything truly magical happens once we hit these various thresholds. But, still, I want to get there!
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We're in almost the same boat, right down to the house purchase at end of August. The number is different, but we were about 15% away from our target goal after buying the house. A few extra expenses and the market moves and it feels farther away than I'd like.
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12-11-2018, 11:29 AM
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#39
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
Are these posts due to a memory problem, or an arithmetic problem? Or something else?
-ERD50
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Keep telling yourself that, all the way down to Dow 18,000 my friend.
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12-11-2018, 12:18 PM
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#40
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjflyman
Keep telling yourself that, all the way down to Dow 18,000 my friend.
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That is a 30% bear market. Not good, but hardly the stuff of worst or "most volatile market in 50 years". There's been 5 of those in the last 50 years, and a few more that were close.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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