|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
12-11-2018, 12:48 PM
|
#42
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,331
|
I'm intrigued.
This is thread like two people watching the same movie and one walks out laughing and the other walks out crying.
How can the esteemed members of the forum--usually level headed and fact based--have such divergent views of the same market?
Half here are just hunkering down (and/or ready to pounce on some opportunities) where the other half is ready for Armageddon. Seems to me that when it comes of finance, 'emotion' is a killer.
No conclusion here but ... fascinating.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 12:59 PM
|
#43
|
Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,155
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
How can the esteemed members of the forum--usually level headed and fact based--have such divergent views of the same market?
|
Someone once told my my mileage might vary.
__________________
I thought growing old would take longer.
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 01:05 PM
|
#44
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Posts: 382
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
How can the esteemed members of the forum--usually level headed and fact based--have such divergent views of the same market?
|
Because none of us are as level headed and fact based as we like to think we are! (And I definitely count myself in that observation!)
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 01:16 PM
|
#45
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
|
Big banks churning accounts setting up the bonus. They make money the old fashion way...they skim it. Nothing new here. Your retirement is safe as long as they get some cream.
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 01:17 PM
|
#46
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,773
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
I'm intrigued.
This is thread like two people watching the same movie and one walks out laughing and the other walks out crying.
How can the esteemed members of the forum--usually level headed and fact based--have such divergent views of the same market?
Half here are just hunkering down (and/or ready to pounce on some opportunities) where the other half is ready for Armageddon. Seems to me that when it comes of finance, 'emotion' is a killer.
No conclusion here but ... fascinating.
|
The bolded imo are not really divergent.
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 01:20 PM
|
#47
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 717
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by nash031
I don't get it... I keep seeing these headlines about 500 point drops in the Dow and think "so what? That's less than 2% in a day." I think some folks are sensitive to it because in our investing lifetimes, indeed less than 10 years ago, the Dow was in the 6000s and a 500 point swing was a big deal. Some of us might've been around when the Dow was 800. It's all relative. I suspect by the time I'm 80, the Dow will be having wild 2000 point swings in one day!!! Panic!
|
I believe groups with agendas are emphasizing the size of the point swings rather than percentage of the swing because they are trying to create a perception or to elicit a response. I’m finding it harder and harder to trust anyone in the media without cross checking everything they say...
__________________
Whatever failures I have known, whatever errors I have committed, whatever follies I have witnessed in private and public life have been the consequence of action without thought... - Bernard Baruch
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 01:29 PM
|
#48
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,976
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
I'm intrigued.
This is thread like two people watching the same movie and one walks out laughing and the other walks out crying.
How can the esteemed members of the forum--usually level headed and fact based--have such divergent views of the same market?
Half here are just hunkering down (and/or ready to pounce on some opportunities) where the other half is ready for Armageddon. Seems to me that when it comes of finance, 'emotion' is a killer.
No conclusion here but ... fascinating.
|
Yes indeed. Personally my only concern is how much my dividend income will decline. I certainly hope I have enough cushion built in that it is not a factor. I really thought this group would be resilient enough not to get excited with these minor developments.
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 01:29 PM
|
#49
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,514
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by street
|
If you believe any of the data in that link is relevant to this thread, why not introduce it here into the discussion so other can comment.,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Free bird
Big banks churning accounts setting up the bonus. They make money the old fashion way...they skim it. Nothing new here. Your retirement is safe as long as they get some cream.
|
What exactly does this mean and how does it pertain to the discussion?
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 01:48 PM
|
#50
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,670
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
I'm intrigued.
This is thread like two people watching the same movie and one walks out laughing and the other walks out crying.
How can the esteemed members of the forum--usually level headed and fact based--have such divergent views of the same market?
Half here are just hunkering down (and/or ready to pounce on some opportunities) where the other half is ready for Armageddon. Seems to me that when it comes of finance, 'emotion' is a killer.
No conclusion here but ... fascinating.
|
Thread started out with voodoo sent in a spam email. Investors with equity ranges from 0-100% commenting, so I expect a wide range of reaction to a market that has essentially gone from 2695 to 2637 or so from Jan 1. It's a Rorschach test, IMO, and shows how diverse a population can be.
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 02:18 PM
|
#51
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,331
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bestwifeever
The bolded imo are not really divergent.
|
I suppose I didn't word it right.
What I meant is that some folks (myself included) see this as just another market cycle to ride out and perhaps take advantage of, while others feel this is some really, really serious negative sea change with once-in-a-lifetime consequences as suggested by the thread title.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 03:54 PM
|
#52
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 751
|
Well at least three of us, if I counted right, myself included, have presented evidence in the way of charts or graphs to show how the current situation is not particularly unusual or unprecedented, and in years much more recent than 50. And yet, the drum beat of fear goes on for some of us. I suspect it is the media noise that some just cant tune out. its like sugar i guess. We know its not good for us, but some just cant stop "eating" it, be it sugar or media spin.
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 03:55 PM
|
#53
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,806
|
Quote:
My comment wasn't a prediction, it was about the analysis of the past versus current volatility. That stands no matter where the Dow is in the future.
-ERD50
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 04:10 PM
|
#54
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,501
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mamadogmamacat
Well at least three of us, if I counted right, myself included, have presented evidence in the way of charts or graphs to show how the current situation is not particularly unusual or unprecedented, and in years much more recent than 50. And yet, the drum beat of fear goes on for some of us. I suspect it is the media noise that some just cant tune out. its like sugar i guess. We know its not good for us, but some just cant stop "eating" it, be it sugar or media spin.
|
I agree this is partially media driven. Yesterday late afternoon, I was at the gym, about the only place I see cable tv now other than ESPN - Fox News kept putting a Dow Watch Graphic up. CNBC was flashing red even though by that time of day S&P was off a whole 0.02%, CNN (and the other two) were saying the Dow was crashing on BRIXIT news.
A void of hours is being filled and Fear and Greed get eyeballs and eyeballs are now a valuable commodity.
BTW
Did anyone here sell or buy Dow stocks due to BRIXIT news yesterday? Ever?
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 05:04 PM
|
#55
|
Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 22,923
|
I think some are conflating volatility with a bear market. I would rather have interday swings of 1-2% if the long term trend is still up. A slow and steady 30% drop, just a little every single day for a year, would not be volatile, but it would certainly hurt.
And I agree that on a percentage basis, the past few months are not that unusual in terms of volatility.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 05:16 PM
|
#56
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,373
|
MichaelB >> QUOTE >>> If you believe any of the data in that link is relevant to this thread, why not introduce it here into the discussion so other can comment.
To answer that question you may want to ask the original poster of the link. Which is added below. I commented on the interesting chart. Not sure I could add anything more then what the chart says for itself. Thank you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea
|
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 05:41 PM
|
#57
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Bonita (San Diego)
Posts: 1,795
|
This thread reminds me that while this forum is certainly above average in terms of financial acumen, one of my first posts here was responding to someone who said "the S&P500 will never reach 2000". It was just over 1800 at the time. I pointed out that a single pretty good year would take care of that.
__________________
"So we beat to our own drummer in the sun;
We ask for nobody's permission to run.
I just wanna live in a world like that;
Now I'm gonna live in a world like that!" - World Like That, O.A.R.
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 05:45 PM
|
#58
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Bonita (San Diego)
Posts: 1,795
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjflyman
Keep telling yourself that, all the way down to Dow 18,000 my friend.
|
A man can dream. Can we take it all the way back down to 8,000 or so? I could use a good firesale for the next year or so.
__________________
"So we beat to our own drummer in the sun;
We ask for nobody's permission to run.
I just wanna live in a world like that;
Now I'm gonna live in a world like that!" - World Like That, O.A.R.
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 05:52 PM
|
#59
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,337
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrencewendall
|
Please don't post far right wing blather
__________________
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
|
|
|
12-11-2018, 06:58 PM
|
#60
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 998
|
Average cycle 5-7 years. Were 9 years into it due to the all time, artificially low interest rates.
It will happen. The only question is, how big will it be and how long will it last.
Facts should not scare anyone.
__________________
"I couldn't wait for success, so I went ahead without it." Ret. 2013 @ 51.
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|