Is today the day for 20K ?

[tmm99]

If you're hoping it'll drop since you're in the accumulation stage, it'll go up. It'll drop like a rock if you're hoping to retire now. That's Murphy's Third Law of Aspirations.

I'm already FIRED, so it will drop then

 

[easysurfer]

Woo-hoo!!!!! I just peeked at the Dow and it was 20,055. But it doesn't count until it CLOSES over 20K.

Do you realize that when I posted that infamous thread, the Dow was just 14,088? And look at it now, a decade later. I'm so HAPPY.

Well, at least the short lived Woo-hoo!! was nice while it lasted.

 

[W2R]

Well, at least the short lived Woo-hoo!! was nice while it lasted.

Might be back tomorrow! Who knows.

 

[SecondCor521]

Might be back tomorrow! Who knows.

I suppose you could try typing "!eehW" in a post and see if that works...

 

[W2R]

I suppose you could try typing "!eehW" in a post and see if that works...

I wish!

 

[MRG]

I think she went short Friday.

 

[easysurfer]

Might be back tomorrow! Who knows.

True. Plus, since I've already rebalanced in early Jan, that makes me pretty much just a spectator the rest of the year anyway .

 

[RobLJ]

I was getting close to the trigger point on buying more equity funds mid year in 2016, but now if the S&P keeps rising another 4%, I'll probably have to sell a little (if equities hit the 66% mark).
The action of international funds is the real actor, particularly Intl Small Cap and Latin America.

 

[NW-Bound]

Being fairly new here I've found it interesting to read older threads that span some significant timeframes. I've seen reference to this W2R post but had not seen it. Ya know, it almost gave me chills reading all these posts prior to the following meltdown! Kind of like watching a horror movie where you know the character is heading into some bad trouble and you want to stop them but can't! Stop, stop don't go in there, you're gonna die! I'm going to have to see the thread, if it exists, that spans mid 2008 to mid 2009. That's gotta be a doozy!

On a side note, I was just starting a new job in late Sept 2008 and was overseas when I saw the initial huge drop being televised via the BBC. Pretty much watched, stunned, seeing a whole lot of money evaporate the two weeks I was gone. Not sure I would have done much if in the US as I'm a long term investor, but it felt worse being overseas at the time. That was a tough next 6 months!

The top of the S&P on 10/31/2007 was 1565, and the bottom on 3/9/2009 was 677. That's a drop to 43% of the top, or a loss of 57%!

The market drop in 2009 was indeed scary, but somehow people forgot that just a few years earlier the tech stock and dotcom meltdown plus the effect of 9/11 was just as terrifying.

The S&P top of 1527 was reached on 3/23/2000. Its bottom on 10/9/2002 was 777. That's a drop to 51% of the top (loss of 49%).

 

[RobLJ]

Market timing is always impossible, but I was starting to get scared about housing in '06 and more in '07 (I experienced the Southwest Savings and Loan crash in the 80's and Cali in the late 80's which had a lot to do with this and, more importantly, I was getting close to 50 with 90%+ in equities). So I scaled back the equity allocation through late '06 through mid '08, gradually while buying intermediate Treasury funds and TIP funds (and a few other bond funds).
An important lesson, since I think the peak of the loss was 25% at the nadir in March '09, but the rebound was substantial and almost unbelievably quick. Had the crash happened earlier, I would have been burned much more significantly given the earlier equity allocation.

I also was rebalancing into equities in late '08 and early '09 as the crash accelerated--and thinking I didn't know what the hell I was doing.

As a note, I also sold some of the equity gains in '11 and early '12, which scaled back the rocket boost back, although I kept largely within my targets established in '08. This is not to note my genius, more to indicate the wisdom of establishing an appropriate Asset Allocation and largely sticking to it. Had I not been approaching 50 in '06 (well 48), things might have gone very differently, but I was aware that 90% equities might not be very appropriate.
DW was also affected by the Enron crash in '01, which a year or two earlier at the time, I had wished I could have hedged the run up (she worked for Dynegy, not Enron). I had run as far as I could in other assets from energy, since so much of an increase was in Dynegy stock--and at that point, unfortunately, the company match was required to be in Dynegy stock. Allocating the rest of assets outside of energy helped a lot.

Just to illustrate a few market horrors. Despite that, we have emerged all right in the end. In fact, very well. So far.

The top of the S&P on 10/31/2007 was 1565, and the bottom on 3/9/2009 was 677. That's a drop to 43% of the top, or a loss of 57%!

The market drop in 2009 was indeed scary, but somehow people forgot that just a few years earlier the tech stock and dotcom meltdown plus the effect of 9/11 was just as terrifying.

The S&P top of 1527 was reached on 3/23/2000. Its bottom on 10/9/2002 was 777. That's a drop to 51% of the top (loss of 49%).

 

[NW-Bound]

I sold stocks and raised cash level throughout 2008, then started to buy back in early 2009. My monthly records show my cash level was 20% in late 2007, and 65% in late 2008. Not all of it was due to my selling, as stocks were the "incredible shrinking asset" during that time. Everybody's stock AA was dropping like a rock (heck, the S&P lost 57% of its value).

I did have the courage to "buy, buy, buy" in early 2009, and my cash dropped to 38%. However, as I started to make good money I feared of a double dip which never came, and sold again too soon. I eventually bought back again, but forfeited quite a bit of gain.

Overall, throughout this period I did fairly well compared to some balanced MFs. Hope I will get lucky again if something like this recurs.


PS. I held little bond, and for simplicity's sake if I held 20% cash + 80% stock and if my stocks tracked the S&P to lose 1/2 of its value, if I did not sell anything my stock AA would become 40 / (40+20) = 67% instead of the 35% due to selling.

From 80% stock to 67% stock due to the S&P dropping by 1/2, the AA change does not look that big, yet the portfolio would have lost 40% of its value! My records show I lost 33%. So, I saved a measly 7% with all that selling. However, the money I put in the market afterwards helped quite a bit during the recovery.

 

[Backdraft57]

I have a sure fire way you all can get rich!!! I will post what I buy and then you can short sell it because no matter how it's done in the past or doing currently it ALWAYS tanks after I buy it. So, we could all get rich if you share some of your profits. On second thought I could start a newsletter and post what I buy. Sure fire way for subscribers to get rich.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[dvalley]

For what it's worth I'm sitting on 75% cash waiting for the market bubble to burst. I cashed out in Nov '16 in order to consolidate all of my assets from various brokerages etc into Vanguard. I figure I'll DCA it all back in when the right opportunities present themselves this year but surprisingly the market continues to be strong...for now.

 

[easysurfer]

Peeks head in to see if a Woo-hoo! sell signal yet from W2R. Not yet. Shhhh! Hope the market climbs a bit higher still.

 

[W2R]

Peeks head in to see if a Woo-hoo! sell signal yet from W2R. Not yet. Shhhh! Hope the market climbs a bit higher still.

I'm thrilled! I can hardly believe that the Dow is 20,412 already.

21,000 here we come.


Up, up, and away (in my beautiful balloon, there's an earworm for you)

 

[easysurfer]

I'm thrilled! I can hardly believe that the Dow is 20,412 already.

21,000 here we come.


Up, up, and away (in my beautiful balloon, there's an earworm for you)

Okay..now I have the jitters .

 

[SecondCor521]

Up, up, and away (in my beautiful balloon, there's an earworm for you)

I'll take earworms all day long as long as you stay away from capital W's.

 

[W2R]

I'll take earworms all day long as long as you stay away from capital W's.

Do I have to?

Yesterday the Dow was over 20,500, and once again my portfolio is the biggest EVER, well, since I bought my dream home anyway.

Today it is 20,612. Up, up, and away!

My highest portfolio value ever, before I bought my dream home, was on April 24, 2015 (less than 10 days before making my offer on that house). Right now, I'm only a tiny bit below that amount. It's as though I got my dream home for free. OK, I know I didn't, but gosh...