It's official: The Oil Boom Is Over

[ziggy29]

I just bought 100 shares of USO in my portfolio.

"Buy high" is usually not in my nature. But in this case, I figure it's a win-win: if oil keeps rising, I cushion the downside on the rest of my portfolio. If my investment succeeds in causing the bubble to pop, the rest of my portfolio's recovery will likely dwarf my losses in USO.

I figure that me finally buying in is a good way to put a stop to the upward momentum.

So if the bubble pops soon, you may raise a toast to me as a hero. I think this is the first time I've ever WANTED to lose money in an investment position.

 

[JohnEyles]

if oil keeps rising, I cushion the downside on the rest of my portfolio. If my investment succeeds in causing the bubble to pop, the rest of my portfolio's recovery will likely dwarf my losses in USO.

Congratulations, I think you've just given a very succinct and intuitive
argument of the benefits of portfolio diversification !

 

[ziggy29]

Congratulations, I think you've just given a very succinct and intuitive
argument of the benefits of portfolio diversification !

Already down [-]$1.60[/-] $1.90 a share from where I bought it. It's working!

 

[Dawg52]

Already down [-]$1.60[/-] $1.90 a share from where I bought it. It's working!

Congrats! I thought I was the only one who could move a stock downwards after buying it.

 

[ziggy29]

Congrats! I thought I was the only one who could move a stock downwards after buying it.

Nope. Ol' Zig can kill the momentum on a momentum play with the best of them.

Consider it a small portion of my portfolio committing hara-kiri so the rest shall live and prosper.

 

[2B]

Early this year I decided it would be good to include a nominal 5% of DBC in my portfolio. I bought in taking it out of my US large cap. In less than a month it was up 15%. I had a panic attack and sold. I figured it was way too high too fast and it was going to crash back down. It made a small bump down shortly after I sold. It's now about 30% higher than where I sold.

So much for my short foray into changing my asset allocation.

 

[ziggy29]

Early this year I decided it would be good to include a nominal 5% of DBC in my portfolio. I bought in taking it out of my US large cap. In less than a month it was up 15%. I had a panic attack and sold. I figured it was way too high too fast and it was going to crash back down. It made a small bump down shortly after I sold. It's now about 30% higher than where I sold.

Not me. I'm holding. I don't care if I lose 50% on this position -- because if I do, it's likely to be very good for the rest of my portfolio.

 

[headingout]

I've got around 10% of my portfolio in PRNEX. It's been outperforming for years. I know some are saying this energy thing is a bubble. But some very wise people (Warren Buffet yesterday) are saying "No," it's supply and demand. I might sell some if it gets near 15% of my portfolio. But even if the bubble "pops" before that, I expect most of the other equities I'm holding to take up the slack in response. As somebody said, this is diversification in action: It's wonderful to have a position that's way up, that if it imploded, you'd be even better off! (Metals do this for you too.)

 

[ziggy29]

Is it too early for an "I told you so?"

Probably. But still...

 

[CitricAcid]

You are still above/at your buying price about, right? Seems that you can only slightly mitigate the meteoric rise in oil, but the effort is greatly appreciated!

 

[ziggy29]

You are still above/at your buying price about, right? Seems that you can only slightly mitigate the meteoric rise in oil, but the effort is greatly appreciated!

Nope. Under water by close to 5% now and getting slammed again today.

You will, of course, notice that I bought in right at the top. Which is why I don't play this game any more, except in special cases like when I'm trying to "talk" oil down by buying it.

You all owe me.

 

[CitricAcid]

I never like to look at past trends in pricing, but if you look at oil it seems that we hit a new high every three weeks, then pull down about 8% for a couple of weeks, then shoot up in a couple weeks to a new high. We are just in the midst of a pullback which may eventually go higher, hey you never know. But, checking out historical quotes, it says USO opened at 113.87 and closed at 113.75, so I assume you weren't too far off of that when you bought, 110.66 can't be too bad, can it?

 

[ziggy29]

I never like to look at past trends in pricing, but if you look at oil it seems that we hit a new high every three weeks, then pull down about 8% for a couple of weeks, then shoot up in a couple weeks to a new high. We are just in the midst of a pullback which may eventually go higher, hey you never know. But, checking out historical quotes, it says USO opened at 113.87 and closed at 113.75, so I assume you weren't too far off of that when you bought, 110.66 can't be too bad, can it?

I bought it near the intraday (and all-time) high of 115.10 -- which is absolutely typical of what happens when I engage in performance-chasing and stock picking. That's why I'm almost all into rigid allocation now. When I chase something, it WILL drop.

Still, if it means keep a lid on oil prices, I'm happy to do my part. It's only about 3% of my portfolio anyway...

 

[CitricAcid]

I bought it near the intraday (and all-time) high of 115.10 -- which is absolutely typical of what happens when I engage in performance-chasing and stock picking. That's why I'm almost all into rigid allocation now. When I chase something, it WILL drop.

Still, if it means keep a lid on oil prices, I'm happy to do my part. It's only about 3% of my portfolio anyway...

So, YOU are the person who has the adversarial relationship with America that all the Congressmen are talking about. Your speculation is out of control, and I Congress can rein it in before it simply gets even further out of control. It is true, speculation (on your part) is the only factor in oil pricing.

 

[ziggy29]

So, YOU are the person who has the adversarial relationship with America that all the Congressmen are talking about. Your speculation is out of control, and I Congress can rein it in before it simply gets even further out of control. It is true, speculation (on your part) is the only factor in oil pricing.

Yes, but I speculate not for greed but for the common good -- to keep oil prices down.

 

[BoutDone]

Sorry to hear of your loss. You might want to take a look at the following link.

Public Chart Lists - StockCharts.com

I am much more of a trader than most on this board so, take the guidance only as far as you are comfortable with.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Ziggy, please let us know when you bail on any total market funds you hold so we'll know when we've hit bottom. I for one salute your patriotic gesture in market timing. Would you like to run for VPOTUSA? There are two openings....

 

[ziggy29]

Sorry to hear of your loss. You might want to take a look at the following link.

Why be sorry? I'm not. I WANTED to take oil down, and there was no better way to do it than buying into the bubble...

 

[Zathras]

Ziggy, thank you for your sacrifice for the better good
So, how much more do you think you will need to buy to bring us back under $100?

 

[ziggy29]

Ziggy, thank you for your sacrifice for the better good
So, how much more do you think you will need to buy to bring us back under $100?

More than I'm willing to lose. I may be altruistic, but I'm not THAT selfless.

 

[CitricAcid]

Crude oil hits record high $146.90, as USO is trading at $118.65 before the market open. My incredibly vague prediction may have become true, yet again... but we shall see how things go.

 

[ziggy29]

Crude oil hits record high $146.90, as USO is trading at $118.65 before the market open. My incredibly vague prediction may have become true, yet again... but we shall see how things go.

Wow. Are their forces more powerful than my buying?

Guess I have to short Fannie and Freddie to finish the job....

 

[CitricAcid]

Well, at least 3% of your portfolio is lookin pretty good before the open

 

[ziggy29]

Down $6 a barrel today. Am I good or what?

 

[Leonidas]

Down $6 a barrel today. Am I good or what?

Thank you! I've been thinking of buying some USO if there was a decent pullback and when I looked at the price a while ago, the first thing I thought of was this post. Thanks for taking one for the team!O0