it's the crash of October 2014 all over again

When I started reading this thread, my wife asked what was so funny?
I told her I was reading about the market crash.
She said "Did we lose all our money?"
Guess I will have to de-sensitize her like other have done.
 
tell her yes.. go back to work!... but don't tell my wife.. or I will not be able to RE
 
When I started reading this thread, my wife asked what was so funny?
I told her I was reading about the market crash.
She said "Did we lose all our money?"
Guess I will have to de-sensitize her like other have done.

You should have replied "No, not all the money. Just our vacation next year. In addition to your kitchen remodel that we lost the day before".
 
crap... not again... another 3 week bust and boom... and I'll likely miss it.

if this is another 2008-9... likely worth looking at.

Who says there will be a boom soon after this one? Somebody guarantees that?

But if it happens, I will drink to that. And if it does not happen, damn, I will need even more drinks.
 
y2k retirees with 100% of their assets in the stock market, do you think this is common?

not at all but bonds had a real return of zero after inflation for much of that time frame and in fact still do so they didn't effect things to much in a positive way to help pull that 15 year real return average to over 2% for that hypothetical retiree following the 4% rule in 2000..

of course the real world with spending adustments and spending patterns factored in the outcome would have likely been different and they would still be ok.

anything pertaining to the 4% rule can only be hypothetical since spending patterns are a huge factor but are not included in the "rule"
 
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the problem with drops is as our portfolios grow larger and larger after a while we tend to relate to things not in percentages but in dollars.


while a 7% drop does not sound like much that is 9 years worth of maxing out my 401k at the catch up level or 15 years worth of my wifes salary.


when we look at it in that perspective that drop is huge.
 
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the problem with drops is as our portfolios grow larger and larger after a while we tend to relate to things not in percentages but in dollars.


while a 7% drop does not sound like much that is 9 years worth of maxing out my 401k at the catch up level or 15 years worth of my wifes salary.


when we look at it in that perspective that drop is huge.

This is how Wade Pfau phrased it in a Marketwatch article

“This is sequence of returns risk,” wrote Pfau. “People are more vulnerable to the returns experienced when their portfolios are larger because a given percentage change has a bigger impact on absolute wealth. A big portfolio drop at the end could possibly wipe out all of the portfolio gains from the first 25 years of one’s career.”

How to avoid sequence-of-return risk - MarketWatch
 
the problem with drops is as our portfolios grow larger and larger after a while we tend to relate to things not in percentages but in dollars.


while a 7% drop does not sound like much that is 9 years worth of maxing out my 401k at the catch up level or 15 years worth of my wifes salary.
I always thought it tended to be the other way around, due to the fact that as we age, we gain more experience in the market. I remember friends who were very nervous of equities when they started out. One co-worker was quite bent out of shape, because he'd put a first-time investment of a few hundred dollars into an index fund. A year or two later, he'd lost a significant percentage of that initial investment (must have been during a market crash) and was re-thinking the whole idea of equities.

The absolute dollar amounts are usually much larger when we are older, but we also have been around long enough to know that what goes down eventually comes back up.

At least, that's my perspective. I guess it depends on your psychological make-up/risk tolerance.
 
Hopefully after today's close, you can forget about big drops for a while:cool:.
 
I always thought it tended to be the other way around, due to the fact that as we age, we gain more experience in the market. I remember friends who were very nervous of equities when they started out. One co-worker was quite bent out of shape, because he'd put a first-time investment of a few hundred dollars into an index fund. A year or two later, he'd lost a significant percentage of that initial investment (must have been during a market crash) and was re-thinking the whole idea of equities.

The absolute dollar amounts are usually much larger when we are older, but we also have been around long enough to know that what goes down eventually comes back up.

At least, that's my perspective. I guess it depends on your psychological make-up/risk tolerance.

the problem is we do not know when it is coming back or even if it will be in our lifetime.

it can be especially damaging early on in a retirement .

but i think there is not one of us in 2008 -2009 who stayed the course and wondered is this time different.
 
This is how Wade Pfau phrased it in a Marketwatch article

“This is sequence of returns risk,” wrote Pfau. “People are more vulnerable to the returns experienced when their portfolios are larger because a given percentage change has a bigger impact on absolute wealth. A big portfolio drop at the end could possibly wipe out all of the portfolio gains from the first 25 years of one’s career.”

How to avoid sequence-of-return risk - MarketWatch

so true. one session today in the upmarket we had was 2 years income for my wife.
 
Everyday I compare my portfolio percentage change with the indices, meaning the Dow, S&P500, and the NASDAQ, to see how I fare. And I also look at percentage change for longer-term performance tracking.

I know not to look at the change in dollar terms, but man, when I was younger I would not think there would be a time when I would see a drop of $80K in a single day, or a gain of $50K (it always drops more and faster in a day than it does going up), and still acted cool.

Well, the market movement still hurts or makes me feel a bit happier, but I know that's the nature of the beast. And it's only money. :)

so true. one session today in the upmarket we had was 2 years income for my wife.

Being in the distribution and not the accumulation phase, I look at the dollar amount fluctuation in terms of how many months of living expenses that equates to. So, 2% today is roughly 6-7 months of expenses.
 
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The absolute dollar amounts are usually much larger when we are older, but we also have been around long enough to know that what goes down eventually comes back up...
... except that the portion that a retiree has converted into consumables is flushed down the toilet (literally!), and has no chance of coming back up. :)
 
... except that the portion that a retiree has converted into consumables is flushed down the toilet (literally!), and has no chance of coming back up. :)
You hope it doesn't come back up!

Unfortunately, living out in the bunnies with septic systems I can tell you from personal experience it ain't necessarily so!
 
The absolute dollar amounts are usually much larger when we are older, but we also have been around long enough to know that what goes down eventually comes back up.
If you don't mind having that "comes back up" part questioned, sometime read Triumph of the Optimists by Elroy Dimson and others.

The title is perhaps misleading. IMO a better one might be Triumph of the Lucky.

Ha
 
You hope it doesn't come back up!

Unfortunately, living out in the bunnies with septic systems I can tell you from personal experience it ain't necessarily so!

Uh, I was thinking the same, but did not want to use too graphic terms. While I do have a septic tank in my other boonies home, it is underutilized and I hope to never have the problem.

Don't you have a high water table where you live? That would cause a big problem when it rains dogs and cats. Like it has been doing. :)
 
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If you don't mind having that "comes back up" part questioned, sometime read Triumph of the Optimists by Elroy Dimson and others.

The title is perhaps misleading. IMO a better one might be Triumph of the Lucky.

Ha

This is a book that I knew about and would love to read. However, it is only available as an expensive hard cover, and the local library has it in the Reference section and will not allow it to be checked out.
 
Uh, I was thinking the same, but did not want to use too graphic terms. While I do have a septic tank in my other boonies home, it is underutilized and I hope to never have the problem.

Don't you have a high water table where you live? That would cause a big problem when it rains dogs and cats. Like it has been doing. :)

Fortunately no, my house and septic system are on a small hill about 250 ft above the area where the water pump is located. The water table is about 70 ft lower than that.
 
You hope it doesn't come back up!

Unfortunately, living out in the bunnies with septic systems I can tell you from personal experience it ain't necessarily so!

You have some really smart bunnies. Ours know nothing about septic systems.

Sorry too good to pass up.:confused:

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
 
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Fortunately no, my house and septic system are on a small hill about 250 ft above the area where the water pump is located. The water table is about 70 ft lower than that.
Nice to be on a high point like that. My high-country home is on a hill, and only 120 ft higher than the highway 0.2 miles away. Yet, looking down on the surrounding homes and the road from my deck, I already feel like king of the hill (the main reason I bought the place :) ).

Anyway, back on market movements, today my stock portion is up 2.19%, but the MF portion is only 1.04%. I think some MFs distribute dividends and cap gains today so their price drop, but the reinvested shares have not been credited. The above is for comparison to the S&P's 2.04%, the Dow's 1.69%, and the NASDAQ's 2.12%.

Some of my energy shares jumped 6 to 8%, but they still have a long way to go to get back to where they were. Buy, sell, hold them? I think I am going to hold.
 
You have some really smart bunnies. Ours know nothing about septic systems.

Sorry too good to pass up.:confused:

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

Yes, the bunnies read up on how to head for the boonies when the septic overflowed :cool:
 
Everyday I compare my portfolio percentage change with the indices, meaning the Dow, S&P500, and the NASDAQ, to see how I fare. And I also look at percentage change for longer-term performance tracking.

I know not to look at the change in dollar terms, but man, when I was younger I would not think there would be a time when I would see a drop of $80K in a single day, or a gain of $50K (it always drops more and faster in a day than it does going up), and still acted cool.

Well, the market movement still hurts or makes me feel a bit happier, but I know that's the nature of the beast. And it's only money. :)



Being in the distribution and not the accumulation phase, I look at the dollar amount fluctuation in terms of how many months of living expenses that equates to. So, 2% today is roughly 6-7 months of expenses.



sooooooo true. i am retiring in july and every down blast i go well there goes a years worth of income.

more and more i am sliding over to the bernstein camp of leaning more to being more conservative than my old aggressive days.

the damage that can be done in even a 10% drop early on to a retirement in dollars can be quite high if you have a sizeable portfolio.

i am only 40% equities at this stage , and will use a rising glide path up to 50% and my days can see 25k swings . that is a freakin lot of money but just a small percentage.
 
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i am only 40% equities at this stage , and will use a rising glide path up to 50% and my days can see 25k swings . that is a freakin lot of money but just a small percentage.
The Vanguarg FP convinced me to go from 40% to 45%. He initially encouraged 50% until I showed him my "escrow account" to give me the same dollars that SS and medicare would contribute to my retirement income. It's an extra cash portion that will decline year by year until I reach 70. I don't know if I conviced him of the logic or he just realized I wasn't going to go all the way.

I am currently in my last "in-office" day before resigning/retiring on 5 Jan 2015. :dance:

I'll be on two weeks of vacation to practice up for retirement. I'll see how long of a transition will be appropriate in January.
 
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