i show from the peak in march 2000 a 1.74% real return over just about 15 years. . 1000 bucks is now 1288.00 .
while it would take 15 years at less than a 2% real return for the 4% rule to fail the returns the last 15 years have been well below average going up or down a few years. .
in fact the 18 years from 1987 to 2004 saw incredible growth averaging 14% a year for 18 years and that untypical run influenced quite a few shorter time frames making them look better with residual gains then they really were as time went on...
it is no different than all of us here looking at our balances when we peaked a few weeks ago.
in all our minds i doubt anyone ever imagining that balance omly growing 1.74% in real return 15 years from now assuming you weren't spending down.
basically it was only newer money that saw much growth, our old equity balances grew quite poorly.
includes reinvested dividends