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View Poll Results: Within the next 24 months, more likely that the SPX gains 20%, or loses 20%?
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SPX Gains 20%
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30 |
83.33% |
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SPX Loses 20%
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6 |
16.67% |
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June 29, 2009 SPX closed at 927
06-29-2009, 02:47 PM
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#1
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June 29, 2009 SPX closed at 927
Within 24 months, is it more likely to gain 20%, or lose 20%? If you had to choose, which way would you bet?
I would take the bear bet, though I guess it is statistically weaker due to the long term upward bias in the market.
Ha
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06-29-2009, 03:10 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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June 29, 2011 - better chance to see a 20% gain than a 20% loss. Things will probably look a lot better fundamentally in the economy by then. GDP growth will likely be nicely positive. Unemployment should be starting to come down by then. The market will react. Just my $0.02.
Big unknowns still unemployment, housing, and credit/banks.
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06-29-2009, 03:17 PM
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#3
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I'd guess it's more likely to be up 20% than down 20%. If I had to guess, it will be up 5-10% in 24 months. But, inflation will be accelerating, maybe at 8% and headed up, so things won't be going well in a real sense.
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06-29-2009, 03:23 PM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 55
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I bet on up 20% unless Congress keeps meddeling...then all bets are off.
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06-29-2009, 03:59 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
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Again all my crystal ball shows is that flaming eye thing. Of more improtance to those of us invested diversely and globally where will the FTSE Total World Index be?
DD
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06-29-2009, 04:19 PM
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#6
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My immediate reaction was to say 20% GAIN, but then I checked and we are up 38% from the recent 671 low (March 6th). So add another 20% on top of that, and that would be ~ 66% gain in 2 years and 3 months.
Seems like a lot to expect. I think we are more likely to tread some water from here, not enough conviction to vote either way.
-ERD50
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06-29-2009, 04:28 PM
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#7
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Given those 2 choices I voted Gain 20%. I think it'll probably be barely 10% though.
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06-29-2009, 04:50 PM
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#8
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Portland
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by DblDoc
Again all my crystal ball shows is that flaming eye thing.
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Try to jiggle it around a bit. Might be loose.
I vote all of the above. In the next 24 months, we'll see down 20% and up 20%. Of course, the order is important...
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06-29-2009, 05:07 PM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
June 29, 2011 - better chance to see a 20% gain than a 20% loss. Things will probably look a lot better fundamentally in the economy by then. GDP growth will likely be nicely positive. Unemployment should be starting to come down by then. The market will react. Just my $0.02.
Big unknowns still unemployment, housing, and credit/banks.
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I think maybe I was not clear in my poll. What I was hoping to poll was not where the SPX would be in 24 months, but within a period of 24 months, will the first 20% movement be up, or down?
Ha
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06-29-2009, 05:10 PM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I think maybe I was not clear in my poll. What I was hoping to poll was not where the SPX would be in 24 months, but within a period of 24 months, will the first 20% movement be up, or down?
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Oh - in that case, I have no clue. Maybe still slightly higher chance of +20% strictly based on recent momentum? With recent volatility, either one is likely within 24 months.
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06-29-2009, 05:12 PM
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#11
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Well I interpreted value after 24 months.
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06-29-2009, 05:13 PM
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#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Well I interpreted value after 24 months.
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Yeah, I see. It really isn't clear. Oh well, another meaningless poll.
Ha
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06-29-2009, 05:20 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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06-30-2009, 08:30 AM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette
Try to jiggle it around a bit. Might be loose.
I vote all of the above. In the next 24 months, we'll see down 20% and up 20%. Of course, the order is important...
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LOL.... my boss would say it is going down 20% first...
I think up myself...
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06-30-2009, 08:33 AM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I think maybe I was not clear in my poll. What I was hoping to poll was not where the SPX would be in 24 months, but within a period of 24 months, will the first 20% movement be up, or down?
Ha
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Bullish here! There is a limit to pain... 
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06-30-2009, 09:02 AM
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#16
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Moderator Emeritus
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Up!
My newsletter suggests that anything under 1000 is a sweet buying opportunity.
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06-30-2009, 01:01 PM
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#17
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What doesn't kill us makes us stronger, huh?
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