Just like 2008

[Texas Proud]

I have been looking at my return based on Vangurd's chart of returns...


I was hoping that my 10 year return was going to jump next month as Oct 2008 was about to drop off... BUT, right now it looks like I am going to lose almost as much this month as I did 10 year ago!!! And we still have more than a week to go....


Now, the pct is much less, but in absolute $$$s it is almost the same...

 

[OldShooter]

There is an old flight training rule regarding failed-engine landings at night:

As you get close to the ground, turn on your landing light. If you don't like what you see, turn it off.

When the market is going up I tend to watch it and smile. When it's going down, I'm a long-term investor, landing light off.

 

[FreeBear]

There is an old flight training rule regarding failed-engine landings at night:

As you get close to the ground, turn on your landing light. If you don't like what you see, turn it off.

When the market is going up I tend to watch it and smile. When it's going down, I'm a long-term investor, landing light off.

Too funny, I thought I was the only one!

 

[Red Badger]

There is an old flight training rule regarding failed-engine landings at night:

As you get close to the ground, turn on your landing light. If you don't like what you see, turn it off.

When the market is going up I tend to watch it and smile. When it's going down, I'm a long-term investor, landing light off.

Another similar thought on this.

Hard landing = you walked away

Crash = RIP

Markets tanks and you sell? See crash.

 

[TwoByFour]

I tend to not watch market returns. For instance, I have no idea where the S&P 500 is now relative to the beginning of the year. The one thing I do keep an eye on is my total assets - where are they relative to the date I retired and how does that compare to the level at which I should be worried? In that regard everything is fine, better than fine.

 

[COcheesehead]

Unlike a failed engine landing, you have a choice. There are safer options. You can move to them and no one would think less of you. In fact as we age, it’s the prudent thing to do.

 

[VanWinkle]

Unlike a failed engine landing, you have a choice. There are safer options. You can move to them and no one would think less of you. In fact as we age, it’s the prudent thing to do.

Try to move when stocks are up vs when they are tanking.....

Re-balancing makes this automatic. No thinking works better for me

 

[COcheesehead]

Try to move when stocks are up vs when they are tanking.....

Re-balancing makes this automatic. No thinking works better for me

And the point flew completely over your head....

 

[VanWinkle]

And the point flew completely over your head....

I think you are right!!

 

[W2R]

I have been looking at my return based on Vangurd's chart of returns...

I was hoping that my 10 year return was going to jump next month as Oct 2008 was about to drop off... BUT, right now it looks like I am going to lose almost as much this month as I did 10 year ago!!! And we still have more than a week to go....

Now, the pct is much less, but in absolute $$$s it is almost the same...

Ow, after reading this I looked. More dropping downwards today? For Pete's sake.

Oh well. I'm fine, life goes on. I'll just keep on happily playing with my shiny new laptop computer and not let this spoil my fun. I'll think about it again tomorrow.

 

[audreyh1]

Not here!!!!

 

[Moemg]

This is like 2008 light . By this point in 2008 I had lost 20% of my stash . This year I have lost 4% .

 

[W2R]

Not here!!!!

Well, me either but I was still in accumulation phase in 2008, just on the final sprint towards retirement.

 

[Another Reader]

Guess I'm going to have to check for specials on 50 pound bags of rice and beans now. No more "Blow that Dough."

 

[Texas Proud]

This is like 2008 light . By this point in 2008 I had lost 20% of my stash . This year I have lost 4% .

I did not check the %s, but I bet I am similar to you...



I had lost over 6 figures 10 years ago and I had been watching as a lot of those bad months were dropping off the 10 year chart... now it looks like I am replacing it with another 6 figure drop...


NOTE: I am NOT worried about my AA and have no plans on moving anything... I just wanted that big red down line to go away!!!

 

[audreyh1]

Well, me either but I was still in accumulation phase in 2008, just on the final sprint towards retirement.

By Oct 2008 I had huge losses wiping out several years of gains - ultimately March 2009 I was back to what I retired with!

 

[HFWR]

Big dump in October to down fractionally for the year. Down 22% in ‘08, though peak-to-trough was around 27%.

 

[NW-Bound]

Why the quick comparison to 2008? The S&P is still above the low in February 2018.

 

[VFK57]

As I remember from older discussion about what to do at the Market downturn, there are two philosophies about it: 1 sell most of it and wait until recovery would start in near future, 2. Stay put and eventually the Market will come back and start growth again because frequent selling / buying may lead to permanent losses. Personally I am in second category.

 

[target2019]

Why the quick comparison to 2008? The S&P is still above the low in February 2018.

Maybe some are seeing this picture?

 

[Jerry1]

Why the quick comparison to 2008? The S&P is still above the low in February 2018.

Not only that, the S&P is still above the starting level for the year of 2,695.

 

[joeea]

right now it looks like I am going to lose almost as much this month as I did 10 year ago!!!

Now, the pct is much less, but in absolute $$$s it is almost the same...

Uhm, so what?

In the past few weeks I "lost" more than I made in salary for the first 7 years of my career.

Meh. It will come back.

 

[NW-Bound]

Surely, it will come back. It just may take a while. Like 5 or 10 years?

Down more than $300K from my high-water mark. I won't sell now, but will not say "Meh" either.

 

[TwoByFour]

As I remember from older discussion about what to do at the Market downturn, there are two philosophies about it: 1 sell most of it and wait until recovery would start in near future, 2. Stay put and eventually the Market will come back and start growth again because frequent selling / buying may lead to permanent losses. Personally I am in second category.

#1 never made sense to me. How do you know when to sell? And then how do you know when the recovery has started and you can buy back in? It is easy to see in hind-sight but in real time it is very hard, at least for mere mortals.

Many studies have been done on trying to time the market and most people badly miss it. Combine that with the factoid that the bulk of market gains occur in a very small fraction of trading days, so by getting out of the market you will miss those, it becomes a losing proposition.

 

[RAE]

Surely, it will come back. It just may take a while. Like 5 or 10 years?

Yep, that is the issue, in a nutshell. If you don't need the money for 5,10, or more years, then "meh" is probably the right attitude. On the other hand, if you think you might need it sooner, then that is an entirely different situation. Some would say you shouldn't have been in equities in the first place if you fall into the second category (and I don't disagree); but if you are, then I think it makes some sense to move to safer assets with at least some of your $$ in equities. Just my opinion.



And yes, I understand the effect of inflation over time, etc, etc., so no need to go there.