 |
Just out of curiousity,,,
01-09-2008, 05:25 PM
|
#1
|
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Williamsport
Posts: 489
|
Just out of curiousity,,,
The SWR is supposed to be based upon the WORST 30 year period in the history of the market. Does anybody know when that was? I'm guessing it started sometime in the 60's. But I honestly don't have a clue, and wouldn't even be able to start to calculate it even if I did know where to find the rates of return for all those years.
__________________
"Iron" Mike - Semper Fi
Jack of all trades; Master of none.
|
|
|
 |
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
|
01-09-2008, 06:30 PM
|
#2
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
|
The great depression and the period of ~1964-1975 are the two primary failure points.
A deep drop and not much after that, and a long sideways period.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 07:05 PM
|
#3
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
|
Seems like my worst case failure in the majority of my FireCalc runs start in 1966.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 07:14 PM
|
#4
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
|
Guess the era of love and peace wasnt so hot for stocks 
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 09:02 PM
|
#5
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
|
It wasnt so hot for much of anything.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 09:07 PM
|
#6
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,813
|
 Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
It wasnt so hot for much of anything.
|
Heh. I'm guessing your opinion of that era was formed as a middle school student. 
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 09:26 PM
|
#7
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,965
|
1966. Fresh out of college - with a good en ga neering job - ego to match - full service Dean Witter broker - a legend in my own mind. 1968 - a few winners, penthouse apartment, new sports car, chasing dirty blonds, trying to learn golf and downhill sking. Will the last person leaving Seattle please turn out the lights and 73/74 Mr Market started the wake up calls.
This was even before - psst Wellesley.
heh heh heh -  4% came with webtv, Bernstein's Efficient Frontier and this(Dory36) forum via Firecalc. I had no idea how much fun I had - except in hindsight. Note - Wellesley started 1970.
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 09:29 PM
|
#8
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
It wasnt so hot for much of anything.
|
It was OK as long as the bong was full and you could score some decent "windowpane" once in awhile .
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 10:15 PM
|
#9
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
|
It was formed by 35,973 stories, most of them almost exactly alike, about how my dad bought stocks in the mid 60's for $xxx and finally gave up in the early 70's when they were down to $x and thats why he'd never own stocks again. And how they of course went right back up again the minute he sold and are worth 20x as much now. And how the bonds all paid lousy rates too. And...and...and...
So you depression babies werent the only ones who had so suffer from the investing diatribes
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 10:25 PM
|
#10
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,813
|
I can't speak for other depression babies but I never had to listen to any diatribes about investing. The only stock my dad ever talked about was the live variety that he had to milk every morning...just before he walked to school barefoot, in the snow, uphill both ways.
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
|
|
01-09-2008, 10:26 PM
|
#11
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
|
Bet you have strong fingers from clinging to the windowsills while you slept, of course being too poor to afford floors.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
|
|
01-10-2008, 12:15 AM
|
#12
|
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,853
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
It was formed by 35,973 stories, most of them almost exactly alike, about how my dad bought stocks in the mid 60's for $xxx and finally gave up in the early 70's when they were down to $x and thats why he'd never own stocks again. And how they of course went right back up again the minute he sold and are worth 20x as much now. And how the bonds all paid lousy rates too. And...and...and...
So you depression babies werent the only ones who had so suffer from the investing diatribes |
You two have just described my father-in-law and my father.
No nightmares for me tonight. Sure...
__________________
*
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
|
|
|
|
|
01-10-2008, 12:42 AM
|
#13
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
Bet you have strong fingers from clinging to the windowsills while you slept, of course being too poor to afford floors.
|
Ha I never heard that one before.
|
|
|
|
|
01-10-2008, 08:22 AM
|
#14
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
|
Old monty python bit.
There is no original creation. If monty python didnt do it, simpsons did it.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
|
|
01-10-2008, 08:26 AM
|
#15
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,813
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
Old monty python bit.
|
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
|
|
01-10-2008, 09:04 AM
|
#16
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
|
Thats the one
"You were lucky to have a lake! There were 150 of us living in a shoebox in the middle of the street!
Sheeeer luxury!!"
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
|
|
01-10-2008, 09:57 AM
|
#17
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bikerdude
It was OK as long as the bong was full and you could score some decent "windowpane" once in awhile . |
That caused a flashback brought back some memories... 
Appropriately enough, I took a hit of "pyramid" before I saw Pink Floyd the first time... (Medical experiments: obligatory MP reference...)
My dad, born 1930, has never owned a stock. Raw land, he says...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
|
|
|
|
|
01-10-2008, 10:12 AM
|
#18
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
|
Hah. Six posts before the start of thread entropy, seventeen for nearly complete decomposition!
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
|
|
01-10-2008, 10:50 AM
|
#19
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,965
|
Heh heh heh - da nail in the coffin:
Google up 'The Retire Early Home Page' and read Mr Greany's 4% withdrawal in hard times article.
DO NOT! I repeat do not use the search function on this forum to explore retirement in the 1999 - 2002 period or engage in forward prognostication.
Hopefully most of the sinful stuff has been purged!
A little change up to plug Greany - psssst - TIPs.
heh heh heh -
|
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
Search this Thread |
|
|
|
| Display Modes |
 Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|
