Unfunded future liabilities is not just a problem in the US. Japan and Germany are closer to doomsday in that regard, so it'll be interesting to see how they deal with it.
First, let me say that I'm glad we're all being admonished that we're doomed on the highway to hell. I think it's a good idea for governments to have to account for liabilities and to prepare to fund them. Much of the recent despair over retiree benefits has been instigated by the new requirement for state & local govts to account for and actually fund their healthcare liabilities, not just hand them out at every contract negotiation like Ford & GM & Chrysler in the 1980s. So grappling with the problem, even if it's made overly scary, is a good thing.
Second, I think it's good to focus on the pessimistic scenarios. Too many "good" scenarios rely on statistically challenging feats like "no bad surprises" or "no volatility". Focusing on the pessimistic forces people to, at a minumum, study statistics & history to come up with solutions. Or to at least avoid repeating history.
Third, the "gloomy" forecasts are a better mandate on govts to spend responsibly. You know what'd happen if Social Security was declared to be overfunded, and there'd never be a rebate of our tax payments. At the very minimum the politicians are aware that they can't raise taxes across the board to solve a problem like Medicare, so they're forced to at least pretend to some semblance of fiscal responsibility and solution-seeking.
Fourth, I think the statisticians & actuaries & accountants need better tools. They've been predicting disaster for over four decades now, which tends to reduce their credibility to at best Cassandra, if not the boy who cried "Wolf!" Pretty soon even the politicians are going to decide that there's no consequence for ignoring the problems.
One trend is already clear in Japan. Workers keep on working about 10 years past the mandatory retirement age in Japan on average.
Gosh, they must be so bored & unfulfilled. You know in Japan that it's almost impossible to get a tee time, and the surf sucks too. I wonder if there's a Japanese phrase for "Whaddya DO all day?!?"
Is it possible that the Japanese Boomers have delayed their retirements because their stock market & economy have sucked for the last 1.5 decades? Or, gee, maybe they didn't save enough money either. I'm sure the Japanese I see in Waikiki have a pithy colloquialism for their spending.
The main difference between Japan and the US is that Japanese old folk are generally in better health than American old follk. That is something we'll have to figure out how to deal with on our own.
Higher immigration quotas for geriatric & elder-care specialists... Hawaii's a harbinger of the same issues.
