Lies, D@mned lies, Statististcs & the Government

[barbarus]

Well, it turns out that that awful job decline in August, the one that happened just when Bernanke wanted to whack rates, was a fib. The convenient -4000 has been revised up to a +89,000. The number for September is even higher.

Mirabile dictu.

The war on savers continues unabated!!

"Never give a sucker an even break"
Our Gvmt

 

[brewer12345]

Yeah, but look at where most of the revision came from: gummint hiring. The private economy is still lagging in job creation.

I actually don't know why the market gets so excited about the jobs number. It is always revised, sometimes by a large amount. Until the second revision is done, it is hard to put much stock in the numbers. Yet the markets seem to do so regularly.

 

[ziggy29]

Are you suggesting the government fudged the August numbers to goad the Fed into cutting interest rates? Our government would never do something so sneaky...

 

[tightasadrum]

Look around your neighborhood. A local building supply manufacturer just announced a 30% RIF. The effect on other businesses and suppliers that depend on this business in the area will be even greater in numbers than the layoff.

 

[Rustic23]

Interesting, last night we were playing cards with the wife of one of the local builders in our community. I ask how was the construction business. Her answer surprised me. It is very good, three houses under construction and signed contracts for two more. She said she was surprised as most of their business is second homes, and retirement homes.

Lake Livingston, Texas

 

[ziggy29]

Interesting, last night we were playing cards with the wife of one of the local builders in our community. I ask how was the construction business. Her answer surprised me. It is very good, three houses under construction and signed contracts for two more. She said she was surprised as most of their business is second homes, and retirement homes.

Where are you? "Location, location, location" has never been more important with respect to the housing market.

Here in Central Texas, particularly in the Austin area, there is no housing slump. The market is still strong. When the homebuilders had their recent "fire sales" in new developments, none in this area were included in the sale.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Its also interesting to note that a portion of the jobs number is simply invented. If the economy is growing, the folks that produce the jobs number presume that a certain number of small businesses are doing better and hiring people that the data collection processes dont see, so they add what they feel is a reasonable number.

That 'reasonable number' is a far larger component than the swings that make people all excited and have them running about buying and selling investments, and making changed to economic policy.

So if the guess is right, its all good. If the guess is wrong, then its not. If for example, the economy is doing well but small businesses are reducing staff to improve the profit margins...then the jobs report may claim a phantom improvement where there is none.