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Little faith in the market now
12-11-2008, 07:42 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 146
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Little faith in the market now
Recently, I have lost a lot of faith in the market. Not related to the stock market losses per se. I knew the market could drop 45% at some point and had planned by portfolio to withstand a severe bear market, with a tolerable hair cut.
It seems, as Jack Bogle has said, that too many "speculators" exist. Bear raids, CDSwaps, ramping, wash sales. Hedge funds, lightly regulated investment partnerships, operate with little oversight. Intellectually weak legislators corrupted by lobbyists. Lack of the uptick rule. I don't really even understand half of it really. Are big institutions manipulating the illiquid muni market? All these Wall street "experts" were mostly overpaid morons with trumped up pedigrees. I am happy that Thain did not get his $10 million dollar bonus...nothing personal.
Maybe this is a good sign. If my emotional side is capitulating, maybe we are at the bottom.
__________________
The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.
Winston Churchill
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12-11-2008, 07:50 PM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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I think I'd feel better with a series of gradual .3% or .5% daily gains, then a few slightly down days, basically the normal fluctuations rather than that what we have now. A 4% daily rise, a 5% loss, a 3% rise, whatever. My Vg REIT was down 14% today - may be up 12% tomorrow. Chaos.
This is not a market I trust either.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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12-11-2008, 08:10 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Yep - right now 21-7, the Bears are stomping the banana poop out of my Saints and it's cold in Chicago. Gonna be perhaps a long winter.
BUT! - pssst Wellesley = 5.78% SEC yield.
Hang in there.
Maybe not the Saints - at least not this year but long term:
'God Looks After Drunkards, Fools And The United States of America.'
heh heh heh - wait next season - you'll see.
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12-11-2008, 09:06 PM
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#4
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
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You are not the only one losing faith in the market:
Mutual fund investments fall $2.8 billion - Dec. 11, 2008
Money is flowing out of stock AND most bond funds. People would rather put their money in treasuries paying no interest. It blows my mind.
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12-11-2008, 09:18 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,342
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Even though I still have no faith in the current market i'm still going to put all of my Roth contribution into VGTSX on Jan 2nd. I guess i'm just stubborn but i'll be doing that every year whether it's up 15% or down 47% like this year.
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12-11-2008, 09:25 PM
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#6
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,773
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Hang in there--tomorrow could be a bumpy day on Wall Street based on tonight's emergency meetings over the automakers' bailout:
Auto bailout talks collapse over union wages - Yahoo! News
Quote:
Republicans left a closed-door meeting where they balked at giving the automakers federal aid unless their powerful union agreed to slash wages next year to bring them into line with those of Japanese carmakers. Republican Sen. George V. Voinovich of Ohio, a strong bailout supporter, said the UAW was willing to make the cuts — but not until 2011.... The bill was virtually certain to fail to reach the 60-vote threshold it would need to clear to advance.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid called the bill's collapse "a loss for the country," adding "I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It's not going to be a pleasant sight."
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12-11-2008, 09:34 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,068
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I hope it is bumpy, my fear is it will be smooth and steep and in just one direction:|
However, in the long run, I think chapter 11 will be better for GM, than this bail out would have been.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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12-11-2008, 09:44 PM
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#8
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 131
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"If my emotional side is capitulating, maybe we are at the bottom."
Don't succumb to solipsism, markets don't care what you think.
I think your emotions are perfectly reasonable.
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12-11-2008, 09:54 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Few years from now it will go up again. Your time horizon may vary.
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12-11-2008, 10:12 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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Tomorrow or should I say today looks ugly with futures down over 300 pts. This crap is getting old.
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12-11-2008, 10:26 PM
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#11
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,856
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mark500
It seems, as Jack Bogle has said, that too many "speculators" exist. Bear raids, CDSwaps, ramping, wash sales. Hedge funds, lightly regulated investment partnerships, operate with little oversight. Intellectually weak legislators corrupted by lobbyists. Lack of the uptick rule. I don't really even understand half of it really. Are big institutions manipulating the illiquid muni market? All these Wall street "experts" were mostly overpaid morons with trumped up pedigrees. I am happy that Thain did not get his $10 million dollar bonus...nothing personal.
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Apparently people only began objecting to these issues when the market stopped going up...
__________________
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12-12-2008, 05:08 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,713
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How true!
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12-12-2008, 05:11 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454
This crap is getting old.
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Look on the bright side - so are you. Less time for you to have to worry about market gyrations.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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12-12-2008, 05:54 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zathras
I hope it is bumpy, my fear is it will be smooth and steep and in just one direction:|
However, in the long run, I think chapter 11 will be better for GM, than this bail out would have been.
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I don't disagree, but the $64K question is will people buy cars from GM in Chpt 11. The polls I've seen suggest 80% will not, so GM would go straight to Chpt 7 no? If GM could go bankrupt without taking down Ford, I'd be for it, but I'm not sure what would happen. Frankly, I think the Corker approach will ultimately be the only way to save the D3, and that might not even work.
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No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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12-12-2008, 06:45 AM
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#15
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,580
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Apparently people only began objecting to these issues when the market stopped going up...
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Hey, come on now, Nords. When the market was going up we were all genius investors.
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12-12-2008, 07:16 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Yeah but someone tell me this........ Why in the heck was I in the market in the first place? I had enough money to take me to promised land. Frig, now I have to worry about it I still do and will the market come back? What an idiot.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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12-12-2008, 07:21 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg54
Yeah but someone tell me this........ Why in the heck was I in the market in the first place?
...What an idiot.
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When you start replying to yourself online - in the same post - it might be time to seek some professional help. Unclemick will be along shortly to counsel you.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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12-12-2008, 07:21 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
Hey, come on now, Nords. When the market was going up we were all genius investors.
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One thing Ive noticed on the various message boards. You don't see that beauty of a question.
"Why not 100% stocks guys!"
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12-12-2008, 07:24 AM
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#19
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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This thread reminds me of how I (and I presume a lot of you) used to shake my head at my post-depression parents and their friends who feared investing and had the under-the-mattress mentality.
While I haven't succumbed to that just yet, I certainly have a better understanding of why they felt as they did. It would take quite a few years to calm the minds of those who went through that period, and I suspect the same will apply to the Crash of 2008.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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12-12-2008, 07:39 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Mid Hudson Valley
Posts: 1,781
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Whats left to say? In this market you buy, or wait, or buy and wait.
__________________
In a panamax down by the river.
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