BoredAtWork
Dryer sheet wannabe
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2021
- Messages
- 16
I tried running this out long-term under approach of using margin loan proceeds to live off and never repaying the loans. The key positive of this approach in my view is the tax benefit. For higher spenders who may also live in a state with income taxes, your long-term capital gains blended tax rate could be 10% - 15%. This compares to effectively 0% with a margin loan. I had assumed this significant tax savings would make it very attractive. Perhaps I did something totally wrong, but my assumptions were:
Portfolio grows 3% annually
Safe withdrawal rate to live off is 4% based on original portfolio (assumed no inflation to be simplistic)
Margin loan interest rate is 2%
Taxes are 0% under margin loans
Taxes are 15% under normal safe withdrawal approach due to L/T capital gains in a state with higher income tax rates
Running this out 25 years the margin loan approach results in almost double the ending net portfolio than the traditional safe withdrawal strategy. So one can see the appeal; however, the margin loan approach by year 25 the accumulated margin loan balance represents 62% of portfolio. Way too risky. Also to think over 25 years (or longer) you don't run into at least 1 really adverse stock market draw down that blows you up with a margin call seems unrealistic.
The margin loan approach approach starts off great and seems beneficial for several years. In year 1 your margin loan is only 4% of portfolio. Super low risk. But every year since you don't pay off the loan and you take out a new margin loan, it keeps increasing at a rate that is larger as a % than the underlying portfolio is increasing. By year 25 the underlying portfolio has doubled in size, which is great; however, the margin loan now represents 62% of the portfolio.
You can't sell portfolio to pay down margin loan b/c that would trigger capital gains and defeats the whole purpose of the tax savings. The benefit is not paying tax while you live and then upon death your heirs get stepped up basis, pay off the margin loan and pay $0 tax.
My takeaway is margin loans could be used strategically in short term for a big purchase like a house or for several years to bridge to RMD's, Social security, etc. Doing this approach long-term only works for the ultra rich. If your withdrawal rate to live off is <1% like I imagine it is for some of the uber wealthy, then you could actually do this approach for decades and not take on too much risk. For even people who are wealthy but not immensely so though it does not seem to make sense.
Portfolio grows 3% annually
Safe withdrawal rate to live off is 4% based on original portfolio (assumed no inflation to be simplistic)
Margin loan interest rate is 2%
Taxes are 0% under margin loans
Taxes are 15% under normal safe withdrawal approach due to L/T capital gains in a state with higher income tax rates
Running this out 25 years the margin loan approach results in almost double the ending net portfolio than the traditional safe withdrawal strategy. So one can see the appeal; however, the margin loan approach by year 25 the accumulated margin loan balance represents 62% of portfolio. Way too risky. Also to think over 25 years (or longer) you don't run into at least 1 really adverse stock market draw down that blows you up with a margin call seems unrealistic.
The margin loan approach approach starts off great and seems beneficial for several years. In year 1 your margin loan is only 4% of portfolio. Super low risk. But every year since you don't pay off the loan and you take out a new margin loan, it keeps increasing at a rate that is larger as a % than the underlying portfolio is increasing. By year 25 the underlying portfolio has doubled in size, which is great; however, the margin loan now represents 62% of the portfolio.
You can't sell portfolio to pay down margin loan b/c that would trigger capital gains and defeats the whole purpose of the tax savings. The benefit is not paying tax while you live and then upon death your heirs get stepped up basis, pay off the margin loan and pay $0 tax.
My takeaway is margin loans could be used strategically in short term for a big purchase like a house or for several years to bridge to RMD's, Social security, etc. Doing this approach long-term only works for the ultra rich. If your withdrawal rate to live off is <1% like I imagine it is for some of the uber wealthy, then you could actually do this approach for decades and not take on too much risk. For even people who are wealthy but not immensely so though it does not seem to make sense.