geeky_grrl
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Nov 17, 2012
- Messages
- 226
With the stories in the news about how the ultra rich live off of their assets by borrowing against them instead of selling and realizing capital gains, I started wondering if the strategy was possible with a smaller portfolio. Would it be advantageous for taxes to just live off of margin loans?
For example, say I had $2,000,000 invested at my brokerage and I can borrow at 2% interest and I want to pull $60,000 out each year. I get a margin loan for the $60k and over the year it accrues around $1,200 in interest. Even assuming a pretty low rate of return like 4% it seems to work out pretty well
Overly simplified numbers (assuming everything is withdrawal at the beginning of the year for easier math).
Margin loan:
$2,000,000 initial portfolio * 1.04 = $2,080,000
- 61,200 loan balance = $2,018,800 net worth
Withdrawals (I'm assuming 5% tax on my withdrawals for LTCG):
$2,000,0000 - $63,000 = 1,937,000 * 1.04 = $2,014,480
I'd probably also be able to get a better ACA subsidy which I didn't factor in.
The main risk I see is if we have a period where interest rates exceed stock market returns. This strategy would not have worked well in the 70s/early 80s when interest rates were sky-high. I figure if rates started going up a lot I could take the hit and liquidate some stocks or dip into my Roth accounts to decrease my margin balance.
Margin loans and the risk of margin calls scare me somewhat, but the risk of a margin at with that small of my portfolio seems pretty low. I'd probably be looking at this strategy as a bridge until social security and RMDs kick in. I think I could probably keep my margin loan to under 25% of my taxable brokerage assets which seems pretty low risk to me.
What am I missing? It seems like a better strategy to do the margin loans vs. withdrawals, but I'm assuming that if it was clearly better more people would be talking about it.
For example, say I had $2,000,000 invested at my brokerage and I can borrow at 2% interest and I want to pull $60,000 out each year. I get a margin loan for the $60k and over the year it accrues around $1,200 in interest. Even assuming a pretty low rate of return like 4% it seems to work out pretty well
Overly simplified numbers (assuming everything is withdrawal at the beginning of the year for easier math).
Margin loan:
$2,000,000 initial portfolio * 1.04 = $2,080,000
- 61,200 loan balance = $2,018,800 net worth
Withdrawals (I'm assuming 5% tax on my withdrawals for LTCG):
$2,000,0000 - $63,000 = 1,937,000 * 1.04 = $2,014,480
I'd probably also be able to get a better ACA subsidy which I didn't factor in.
The main risk I see is if we have a period where interest rates exceed stock market returns. This strategy would not have worked well in the 70s/early 80s when interest rates were sky-high. I figure if rates started going up a lot I could take the hit and liquidate some stocks or dip into my Roth accounts to decrease my margin balance.
Margin loans and the risk of margin calls scare me somewhat, but the risk of a margin at with that small of my portfolio seems pretty low. I'd probably be looking at this strategy as a bridge until social security and RMDs kick in. I think I could probably keep my margin loan to under 25% of my taxable brokerage assets which seems pretty low risk to me.
What am I missing? It seems like a better strategy to do the margin loans vs. withdrawals, but I'm assuming that if it was clearly better more people would be talking about it.