Long-term returns from real estate

[mathjak107]

more and more its become a professionals game. once in a decade you may get a nice run up like we had but for all its glory i dont find real estate a great investment anymore. its to localized , to leveraged in a shaky market and to many tenents to make your life miserable. after 20 years of landlording when everything is sold im thru. .. only real estate that may be worth it is a personal residence since you have to live somewhere.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

more and more its become a professionals game. once in a decade you may get a nice run up like we had but for all its glory i dont find real estate a great investment anymore. its to localized , to leveraged in a shaky market and to many tenents to make your life miserable. after 20 years of landlording when everything is sold im thru. .. only real estate that may be worth it is a personal residence since you have to live somewhere.

I understand your position completely, but for me...............I prefer
RE to such an extent that (if I was younger), I would get back into it.
Not full time of course. I'll concede that maybe if I'd done it full time
over a long period I might not be quite so enthused. Cashing your interest
and div. checks is a lot less hassle than chasing the rent and fixing
leaky toilets.

JG

 

[Mr._johngalt]

Buy and hold or playing the fix-up/flip game is not the best way to make money in real estate. The best of way is doing your research and investing in property that has immediate opportunty for change of use. By change of use I mean subdividing or rezoning for a higher and better use.

Agree "change of use" can be good. Do not agree it is the "best way".
That's a pretty broad statement to make.

JG

 

[califdreamer]

There is no need for us to do it. Let Gary Shilling do it for us: :Many choice quotes there. He predicts that the big drop will start at year end. Most optimistic outlook is that it might be delayed to 4Q07.

Doses Shilling discuss apartment investing in areas that have been underpriced during the housing boom?

Not all RE investments are houses. None of my holdings are.

 

[mathjak107]

this is why i say real estate is a very personalized issue, i can only speak for my own dealings both as a landlord and as a seller of real estate trying to make a profit at times. im not convinced it was worth the effort

 

[kcowan]

Lot's of nice pictures in Shillings report ... but I think his prediction of steep declines in 07 is ahead of it's time. A RE run up that took 12 years to create can't bottom-out in 2 years; too little liquidity in RE.

My guess - if this bottom follows previous - is it'll take 5-6 years. Assuming it already started, that means 2010-2011. Think deep recession too.

Normally the cycle is 14 years, 7up and 7 flat or down. The correction will be more severe depending on the mood of prospective buyers. If you really absorb what all those charts are portraying, most indicate a state that we have never seen before.

But then, if any of us could forecast the future, we would be rich already and not bothering with Firecalc.

 

[tryan]

I figure as long as the economy to still producing, there will be new suckers homebuyers to take up the slack. Even if they buy short sales approved by banks - or tired sellers - to clean up exotic mortgage mess; the landing COULD be soft.

Enter a deep recession - or heaven forbid, depression - and it COULD be as bloody as Shilling foresees.