Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 10:15 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Looks a lot like

The market is fumbling around trying to find a bottom. We are back where we were before everyone decided that the Fed was ready to pack it in, and I don;t see any obvious problems with current valuations. Not a bad place to put new money to work, IMO.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 10:36 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Looks a lot like

Market E/P at 5.3%, treasuries at 5%. Downside risk is probably pretty low, but upside doesn't excite me.
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 10:37 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Hardscrabble Texas
Posts: 372
Re: Looks a lot like

That's kinda my take on it also......just bouncing along a bottom waiting for people to get over the jitters. I've been adding a little here and there over the last week. DW calls it the "peck-away" method. *:

.....#...
__________________
.....#.....
Poundkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 10:42 AM   #4
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,856
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
The market is fumbling around trying to find a bottom.* We are back where we were before everyone decided that the Fed was ready to pack it in, and I don;t see any obvious problems with current valuations.* Not a bad place to put new money to work, IMO.
I can't help feeling that we'll have many more buying opportunities between now and October...

How 'bout that EGLE!
__________________
*

Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."

I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:00 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
How 'bout that EGLE!
If Supramax rates go up for the rest of the year, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:05 AM   #6
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,856
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
If Supramax rates go up for the rest of the year, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
For the last two weeks, EGLE and Berkshire Hathaway were the only green in the portfolio...
__________________
*

Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."

I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:10 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,490
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
I can't help feeling that we'll have many more buying opportunities between now and October...
agreed. but my ability to predict the market is decidely flawed ... i'll likely buy a bit here and there but keep some powder dry.
d is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:11 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
For the last two weeks, EGLE and Berkshire Hathaway were the only green in the portfolio...
I'm more interested in the red at the moment. I'd love to see the stuff I want to buy keep dropping (or flat) until I can buy it next week.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 11:19 AM   #9
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
Re: Looks a lot like

I won't pretend to have the resources to market time. I just keep DCAing ~$800 a month into my accounts - we're going to have some cash flow issues for the next year or so as we get used to our new 1.5 income vice 2 income household. What does that blue fish in "Finding Nemo" say? Just keep swimming...
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:01 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
Re: Looks a lot like

Boys, this has all the earmarks of a high risk, moderate reward "buying opportunity".

If you really like what you are buying, and don't care if it might go down 25% more, no harm done I suppose.

I bought a gas producer at prices only 5-7% higher than its private placement price, which was also the price at which management set their options and incentives. Looked pretty safe to me. Yet it is down, and might soon go below the original PP price.

Today we having another failed rally attempt in the Qs; and it is picking up speed on the downside right now. Anything can happen, but one bad thing that could happen is that Thursday and Friday might also be weak, then comes the long weekend. Lots of time to think things over, to consider the wisdom (and your DW or DH might help you with this* ) of preserving whatever gains you might have for the year, or even the last few years.

Some selling could get going early next week, and if so, people could get frightened.

So far many investors are seeing falls as buying ops. This could change.* :P

I am 65% in cash, plus some puts. Yet I don't like the feeling of seeing what stocks I do own fall.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:14 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
I bought a gas producer
You going to keep us in suspense?

Quote:
Today we having another failed rally attempt
Yup, I always visualize these failed rally attempts as retail investors buying on the dips, and institutional investors saying "thank you very much, would you like some more?"
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:34 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Re: Looks a lot like

Eh, if you can't stand the heat...

I see a whole industry now selling at basically liquidation value. Sounds good to me.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:39 PM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 408
Re: Looks a lot like

Is this real or is this deja vu?

http://tinyurl.com/qmptg
LovesLife is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:47 PM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 452
Re: Looks a lot like

Just a continuation of the BIG BEAR MARKET that started in year 2000.
Occasional blips upward make everyone think we're in a bull market and many
think this is only a correction, but no, we're in an extended bear market that may last for years and years.
Just my opinion and many will disagree and, of course, I hope I'm wrong.
But in the mean time, I'll continue to keep my portfolio low in stocks.
renferme is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:54 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,878
Re: Looks a lot like

Much ado about nothing, just natural cycles of the market, mean reversion or whatever you like to call it. Stay the course, IMHO.
__________________
Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:56 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by LL
Is this real or is this deja vu?
Yes, we do this every time the market hits a bump. * The bears all come out roaring. * The bulls buy on the dips. * And the buy-and-holders tell us they're holding course. * Think of it as the half-time show. *

As for me, I've been saying for the last three years that I'm a short-term bull and a long-term bear. * *My short-term bull days are numbered. * We've had the fed pump us full of adrenaline. * *We've had Bush lower taxes and spend like a drunken AWOL reservist. * We've had consumers spending their home equity. Those one-time shots have run their course.

All that's left to keep us running now is corporate spending, which might help a bit, but I have a hard time seeing much upside.
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 12:58 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I see a whole industry now selling at basically liquidation value. Sounds good to me.
You gonna shed some light on your geniusry? What industry is no one talking about right now?
justin is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:01 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
You gonna shed some light on your geniusry?* What industry is no one talking about right now?*
Hint: hurricane season starts next week.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:25 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
Re: Looks a lot like

construction? Insurance?
justin is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Looks a lot like
Old 05-24-2006, 01:28 PM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 190
Re: Looks a lot like

Quote:
As for me, I've been saying for the last three years that I'm a short-term bull and a long-term bear. My short-term bull days are numbered. We've had the fed pump us full of adrenaline. We've had Bush lower taxes and spend like a drunken AWOL reservist. We've had consumers spending their home equity. Those one-time shots have run their course.

All that's left to keep us running now is corporate spending, which might help a bit, but I have a hard time seeing much upside.
In the category of "at any point in time, people can make an excellent, rational case for the market going in any direction", what is out there that is long term bullish?

1) The Fed has managed an upcycle without tanking the market. It now has bullets back in its pocket that it did not have a few years ago. Remember the deflation talk?

2) For the first time, perhaps ever, airlines are about to be profitable.

3) As boomers retire, they will start to spend their 401Ks. All of this money does not come from stock funds. A lot will come from fixed income. All of it, however, will get spent. What it buys will help the industries it is spent in.

4) Illegals are going to start paying taxes. Downward pressure on deficit and rates in general.

5) Latin America is finally arriving at the party of consumption.
modlair is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Does anyone feel jealousy from friends/family/others? FatBoy71 FIRE and Money 92 02-25-2007 09:54 AM
A lot of new members? TromboneAl Other topics 23 01-14-2007 02:35 PM
OT: Have you guys even hit/seen/been near the bottom? LRAO FIRE and Money 76 12-23-2006 04:08 PM
Anyone keep a lot of money in their checking account? daverph FIRE and Money 29 12-16-2006 01:24 PM
Does anyone here drink a lot of Captain Morgan?? thefed Other topics 12 09-18-2006 06:36 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:09 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.