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looks like harry browne was right
Old 03-09-2009, 03:26 AM   #1
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looks like harry browne was right

As most of you know from previous discussions i actually run 2 porfolios aqt the same time and incorporate that into the buckets system of ray lucia.... one porfolio is the fidelity insight newsletter which i have been following over 20 years and the other my own version of harry brownes permanent portfolio

25% cash
25 % gld
25% tlt
25% vti

needless to say ole harry has been performing beyond compare for the last decade. last year i was up 1% while my other portfolio got smashed.

not one financial guru recommended long term treasuries in jan 2008, just the opposite, higher rates , higher inflation was a given... last year TLT
LONG TERM TREASURIES were up 28%... its getting clear after over 12 years of crappy equity performance that we cant set our clocks by "average returns anymore"

i think over the next year im going to go as much as 75% into my bullet proof portfolio and just keep fidelity insight as my speculation instead of the 2/3 fidelity insight 1/3 permanent portfolio

im realizing more and more at this age its all about not getting poorer and no longer about bragging about my returns and trying to grow richer...

the trend now seems to be we go up up up and then an event wipes out years of gains again... soooooo as much as i though my permanent portfolio part was for weenies and never offered the growth potential in an up market that my other portfolio did im realizing harry was right...trying to out guess this stuff is a loosing game and may stay that way for decades to come.
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Old 03-09-2009, 09:56 AM   #2
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The strength of his simple portfolio has been the ability to eliminate large declines. The weakness is need to be forgotten in that in large bull markets you will underperform. 10% annual return since 1972. And would have nearly doubled your money in the last decade while most investment vehicles are negative. The simplicity yet precision involved in his design of this portfolio to protect against both inflation and deflation, I think throws MPT in a much worse light by comparision.

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