Looks like the Party is over

[ls99]

What party, I did not know about the party. Dang missed out on all that revelling.

I think I'll keep my scheduled looking at my totals in May.

[Major Tom]

Quote:

Originally Posted by eta2020 Party is over for people without long term view.

My feelings exactly - and the nice thing about being a bit older is that time seems to go faster. A down year, or two, or even more, doesn't seem like as big a deal as it would have when we were younger. Besides, most of us have a few years' worth of living expenses in cash or cash-equivalents and those who don't, recognize that even if you have to sell equities in a down market, you are only selling a very small percentage of your portfolio anyway, which won't make a big difference over the long term.

[NW-Bound]

Selling? I will be buying.

And any party will have to end before the next one starts. One should think of this bear market as an entr'acte. And a chance to buy low. Wouldn't the lower, the better it is to buy?

PS. OK, I am done with my lunch break now. Am contemplating taking a siesta before heading upstairs to continue that DIY flooring project. See y'all later.

[papadad111]

Hey. We're 2 weeks closer to the next party. Pass the punch bowl. I have a bottle to pour in !!

[papadad111]

PS. There is a ton of wisdom on this board from older and wiser and successful individuals.

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by papadad111 PS. There is a ton of wisdom on this board from older and wiser and successful individuals.

But... two tons from older individuals?

[Gumby]

I'll follow Mark Cuban's lead.

Quote:

"While all the selling seems to be based on China and the price of oil, I really don't know what the long term implications for our stock market is. So I follow the number one rule of investing. When you don't know what to do. Do nothing."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/07/dont-...o-nothing.html

[aim-high]

If you've been retired for several years this drop is nothing to be concerned about and you simply stay the course. However, we all know about the studies of sequence of return risk. For those who retired in December, I think it's the hardest.

[pb4uski]

I'll be rebalancing... selling bonds and buying stocks.

[CaliforniaMan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jim584672 The problem with relying on 130 years of history is that our current situation has never happened before in history. Years of ZIRP, a massive Fed balance sheet, worldwide QE with negative rates in other countries. This is actually a live experiment, and we don't know how it all ends.

I remember having this same conversation with a friend back in the 70's, yes it was different then, and it is different now. I have heard exactly the same argument in every market decline since. Of course every time is different, but the laws of supply and demand, and the emotions of greed and fear never change.
We have problems, when have we not? Some industries decline and go out of favor, new ones emerge. But looking at the past 130 years, we have certainly been in much much worse situations.
And speaking of the 70s, we should now be running out of oil, rather than a worldwide obesity problem we should be having famines, with commodity prices through the roof. Not a joke, people were seriously certain of this and very fearful.
We now have different problems, but still the fear. Amazing how human nature never changes.

[petershk]

Whatever anyone does... My own advice is to plan what you will do separately and well in advance of market behavior and news.

So if you want to sell when things "look like they will get bad" and buy when they "look good again" define bad and good, define what you will do and then execute.

Otherwise you won't be able to distinguish planning from emotional reaction... Your brain is great at making an emotional reaction SEEM like a great plan .

And then consider this... If the market is 10% off it's peak... And whatever plan someone has didn't sell AT the peak and that plan doesn't say to get back in now... At least partially... It sounds like the plan is more likely to sell low and buy high :-)

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

[Lcountz]

"And speaking of the 70s, we should now be running out of oil, rather than a worldwide obesity problem we should be having famines, with commodity prices through the roof. Not a joke, people were seriously certain of this and very fearful.
We now have different problems, but still the fear".


And before that, in the 1950s, people built underground bomb shelters.

And in more recent history....remember the Ebola panic last year? OMG we're all gonna die....get the masks, the soap, the suits, stay home don't travel AAAAAAAAGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Ebola? Look it up if you forgot what it is. And that was just last year.

And one of my favorites, shrieked in loud strident tones: "Gold is going to $10,000.00 per ounce!!!!!!"

When the market was going UP UP UP, some of us heard "it's different this time".......

It wasn't.

Now it's going down down down, and some say "it's different this time"...

It won't be.

Besides.....Millions and Millions of Chinese are not going to want to go back to living in huts and eating cold rice and fish heads....they want a Sleep Number bed, a Buick , and ALL the electronic gadgets that the rest of the world is using...along with connectivity....they aren't going to go backwards.

Same for the India.

In 2008 I hid under the bed and cowered. Not this time. I'm going to DCA with extra cash I have, and, probably start this year's Traditional to Roth conversion soon, a few thousand at a time.

But I'll still keep cash for a two year cushion. Luckily, my pension covers all my expenses.

This too shall pass.

This time I'm going to be greedy while others are fearful!!!!

[UnrealizedPotential]

I think the party has been over for quite some time. It would not surprise me if we go down another 10-15%. No big deal. This movie has played before. Pass me the popcorn.

[eta2020]

I see party over for Oil and Gas driven economy of Russia.

Sanctions, low oil prices, Difficulties in China, Iran sanctions ending few hours ago, funding war in Syria a conflict in Ukraine, restarted Cold War style arms race...... Tomorrow Iran Oil hits the market and oil is likely going even lower.

Looks like Soviet Union in 1987-1988 . Even with PE 7 RSX does not look attractive.

[ziggy29]

In reality, this has the potential to make the USA the big winner. China is struggling. Russia will be crippled badly. The USA has a strong oil and gas industry but not nearly as dependent on them than places like Russia or the Middle East. The USA can weather a period of $20 oil. Russia can't. Saudi and Iran, among others, can't for long.

That said, I'm not doing much. I am starting to nibble on more dividend stocks in my taxable account with some "dry powder" now that we are in a 0% tax bracket for qualified dividends.

[eta2020]

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...since_1861.png

Oil has a long periods of low prices a short periods of high prices.....not so with US Equities.
History of oil prices also applies to Bond yields.

[NW-Bound]

Hey y'all, I am back.

I just look at my stash, and figure that if the market drops to 60% of its current value (note that it is its and not it's) I would still have significantly more than what I did at the bottom of 2009. Wow!

I double-checked my arithmetic to be sure - as I have been drinking some merlot while waiting for my jambalaya to cook and may be a bit impaired - and the number was right. So, me worry?

The immediate problem is I have yet no travel plan for 2016 summer. Do I take advantage of the low gasoline price to RV to Alaska (must clear it by the missus), or do I spend a few weeks in Europe while the US dollar is still strong (do not need to clear this with the missus)? Can I do both? Now, this is hard logistically. What's a guy to do?

[Willers]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aim-high If you've been retired for several years this drop is nothing to be concerned about and you simply stay the course. However, we all know about the studies of sequence of return risk. For those who retired in December, I think it's the hardest.

This...

What most failures in Firecalc have in common is a poor early sequence of returns. An 8% drop in a couple of weeks isn't a great start. This will not, at this point, affect our long-term plan, but will if it continues for several years. Just because I know I shouldn't worry, it doesn't mean it isn't painful to watch.

[CaliforniaMan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lcountz ... And before that, in the 1950s, people built underground bomb shelters. ...

Speaking of bomb shelters, attached is the cover from a magazine I kept, bought back in 1961. Lots of "useful" information on how to build and stock a home shelter and "survive" a nuclear attack. I remember going to see prefab bomb shelters with my dad, and seeing some front lawns torn up where they installed the shelters. Still remember the ventilation pipes sticking up from the front yard I passed on the way to school. Years later the pipes disappeared, never knew if the shelter was ever removed. These were really scary times. One of the things that helped kill the personal bomb shelter movement surprisingly enough was a Twilight Zone episode called "The Shelter." Everyone saw and was talking about it. Really brought home the insanity of the times. In the youtube video they interview Rod Serling about it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TghYXxm3wq8

[Moemg]

My parents had a bomb shelter in our cellar . Our cellar was creepy so the thought of months down there eating canned food was pretty awful.