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View Poll Results: March 22nd. FOMC FED Funds Rate Guess - What do you think?
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50bp. Rate Hike
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48 |
40.00% |
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25bp. Rate Hike
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63 |
52.50% |
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0bp. - No Rate Hike
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8 |
6.67% |
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Rate Reduction
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1 |
0.83% |
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03-14-2023, 04:13 PM
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#61
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Pompano
Posts: 54
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Interesting. Like the screenwriter William Goldman said about Hollywood, “nobody knows anything.”
I’m guessing .075 and hoping I’m wrong.
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03-16-2023, 07:53 AM
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#62
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Back in the Dog House
Posts: 8,941
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Europe hikes rates by .50
More support for JP to do the same?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...il-2023-03-15/
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I don't know how to act my age since I've never been this old before.
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03-16-2023, 08:03 AM
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#63
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 6,611
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy
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Europe's inflation is also at ~8.5% not ~6%
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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03-16-2023, 08:08 AM
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#64
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Back in the Dog House
Posts: 8,941
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^^^^
So maybe he uses that to just raise rates by .25.
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I don't know how to act my age since I've never been this old before.
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03-16-2023, 08:50 AM
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#65
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 5,701
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Looks like Credit Suisse got a lifeline, that helps EU. They are behind US with higher inflation and likely more risk due to their energy situation.
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03-16-2023, 07:22 PM
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#66
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 509
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I'll guess 12.5 bps. The fomc will want to minimize blame for any further deterioration of banks while not allowing the impression that they're giving up the fight against inflation. Obviously, I don't have a clue.
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03-16-2023, 07:29 PM
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#67
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Back in the Dog House
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kwirk
I'll guess 12.5 bps. The fomc will want to minimize blame for any further deterioration of banks while not allowing the impression that they're giving up the fight against inflation. Obviously, I don't have a clue.
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Not sure I've ever seen such a small move. (either way) 25bps is the smallest, I think.
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I don't know how to act my age since I've never been this old before.
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03-16-2023, 08:28 PM
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#68
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 509
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy
25bps is the smallest, I think.
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I agree that 25 appears to have been the smallest. I just can't decide between 0 and 25. It's highly unlikely, I suppose, but maybe they'll feel the same way.
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03-17-2023, 05:34 PM
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#69
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 475
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I think 25 with a forward guidance of pause afterward.
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03-17-2023, 07:01 PM
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#70
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 34,695
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Well we will find out soon!
It’s been quite a week.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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03-17-2023, 07:17 PM
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#71
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Long Island
Posts: 3,180
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Initially I would have guessed .50 basis points, but after recent developments, I have revised my guess downward. I reserve my right to change my mind, or otherwise waffle around with the tenacity of a weathervane, up to and including March 23, 2023. 
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Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without.
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03-17-2023, 07:29 PM
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#72
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Back in the Dog House
Posts: 8,941
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarieIG
Initially I would have guessed .50 basis points, but after recent developments, I have revised my guess downward. I reserve my right to change my mind, or otherwise waffle around with the tenacity of a weathervane, up to and including March 23, 2023. |
The financial winds are certainty blowing in all different directions. Two weeks ago I was sure it would be .50 and now I'm thinking .25 and I'm not sure about that. I could probably throw darts at a dart board and be just as sure. Hey wait a minute, does Powell have a dart board? 
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I don't know how to act my age since I've never been this old before.
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03-18-2023, 07:53 PM
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#73
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 656
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I think he almost has to say 25 bp. 50 bp would further stress the banks and 0 bp would cause investors to panic. Where we go from here will depend on his statement. He's going to stress that inflation is under control and the banks that are in trouble are isolated cases and the Fed is ready to step in with additional liquidity.
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03-18-2023, 11:17 PM
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#74
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Location: Boise
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmpi
I think he almost has to say 25 bp. 50 bp would further stress the banks and 0 bp would cause investors to panic. Where we go from here will depend on his statement. He's going to stress that inflation is under control and the banks that are in trouble are isolated cases and the Fed is ready to step in with additional liquidity.
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I think he'll use some variation of "The Fed will continue to be data driven" at least five times between his speech and in the Q&A.
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03-22-2023, 05:50 AM
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#75
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Apex and Bradenton
Posts: 1,004
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I bet the Fed stays put today. No increase, no decrease.
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Good Luck,
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03-22-2023, 06:42 AM
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#76
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
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Still banking (pun intended) on 25bps
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03-22-2023, 06:44 AM
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#77
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Back in the Dog House
Posts: 8,941
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^^^^^
+1
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I don't know how to act my age since I've never been this old before.
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03-22-2023, 06:53 AM
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#78
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: NW Pennsylvania
Posts: 1,435
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Magic Eight Ball says 25bps.
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03-22-2023, 07:30 AM
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#79
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: SoCal, Lausanne
Posts: 4,125
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25, pause, and ease the monthly QT by half.
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03-22-2023, 08:29 AM
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#80
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Near Sacramento
Posts: 377
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A few bank runs doesn't solve the inflation issue, but to try to show understanding that rates going up so fast can cause problems, they will switch to 25 BPs. If more banks don't need rescuing, probably 25 at the next meeting. If inflation shows signs of coming down, than maybe the pause at that point.
cd : O)
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