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View Poll Results: March 22nd. FOMC FED Funds Rate Guess - What do you think?
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50bp. Rate Hike
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48 |
40.00% |
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25bp. Rate Hike
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63 |
52.50% |
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0bp. - No Rate Hike
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8 |
6.67% |
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Rate Reduction
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1 |
0.83% |
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March 22nd. FOMC FED Funds Rate Guess - Poll
03-09-2023, 02:05 PM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,723
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March 22nd. FOMC FED Funds Rate Guess - Poll
I have seen the prognosticators guessing all over the map today on how much the FED with increase Rates at the next meeting. I thought it would be fun to do a quick poll. There is an undisclosed prize for all the winners.
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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03-09-2023, 02:18 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,931
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I like bacon.
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03-09-2023, 02:29 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,723
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie
I like bacon.
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So do I, but I did not list it as an option to give folks something pointless and completely unrelated to post. 
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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03-09-2023, 03:02 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 3,507
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If the jobs report tomorrow is strong and the inflation report next Tuesday shows inflation is not decreasing I would expect a 0.75 increase. This amount was not a choice on your poll.
If I'm right, what is my prize?
__________________
Age is a very high price to pay for maturity.
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03-09-2023, 03:27 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,094
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^^^^^^^^^^ Arghhh.... I voted too soon.
I think it will be 25 bp, as I'm sure they are nervous about overshooting.
Canada has stopped raising it's rate for now.
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Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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03-09-2023, 03:40 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qs Laptop
If the jobs report tomorrow is strong and the inflation report next Tuesday shows inflation is not decreasing I would expect a 0.75 increase. This amount was not a choice on your poll.
If I'm right, what is my prize?
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I will tell you if you win. .75bp right?
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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03-09-2023, 03:43 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,932
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.5 (Being baked in now) Then .25 in May, then "maybe" another .25 in June and then flat for the rest of the year.
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20's "something" mind, trapped in a 70's "something" body
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03-09-2023, 04:15 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,723
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I am sticking with 25bp ....... Hoping for 50! 
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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03-09-2023, 04:19 PM
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#9
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 550
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50bp
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03-09-2023, 04:46 PM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 691
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I watched Powell's testimony yesterday (8 March). The lack of understanding among some in congress makes me very happy that the Federal Reserve banking system has significant insulation from congress. I hope it survives this bout of inflation...which I think has no end in the short term. We'll be lucky if inflation is under 3% by the end of the year. I'm sure we'll have at least 50bp hike next meeting.
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--At what age does spending less now in order to have more later stop making sense?
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03-09-2023, 05:10 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 1,544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qs Laptop
If I'm right, what is my prize?
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Bacon?
__________________
-Big Dawg-FI since 9/2010. Failed ER in 2015. 2/15/2023=DONE! "Blow that dough"-Robbie
" People say I'm lazy, dreaming my life away Well, they give me all kinds of advice designed to enlighten me When I tell them that I'm doing fine watching shadows on the wall "Don't you miss the big time, boy. You're no longer on the ball" -John Lennon-
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03-09-2023, 06:01 PM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 770
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Why am I unable to see the ability to vote when using the phone app. What am I doing wrong?
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you interpret daily life according to your ideas of what is possible or not possible - Seth Speaks
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03-09-2023, 06:50 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 3,681
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My son works for one of the the Federal Reserve Bank branches. Even if he knows something he never tells me anything!
But whenever they raise the rates I tell him "Thank you for the rate increase. You're doing a very good job!"
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Married, both 69. DH retired June, 2010. I have a pleasant little part time job.
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03-09-2023, 07:24 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Diablo Valley (SF Bay Area)
Posts: 2,705
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 11522914
Why am I unable to see the ability to vote when using the phone app. What am I doing wrong?
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Me either & I forgot my password. But 50bp
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03-09-2023, 07:41 PM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 11522914
Why am I unable to see the ability to vote when using the phone app. What am I doing wrong?
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I vote 50bp
__________________
you interpret daily life according to your ideas of what is possible or not possible - Seth Speaks
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03-09-2023, 07:53 PM
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#16
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 859
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It seems like 50bp is being baked in but I think we're in for a pleasant surprise of 25bps. I don't think the fed wants the 50-25-50-25... scenario. People will lose confidence.
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03-09-2023, 08:06 PM
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#17
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2021
Location: Some Where Warm
Posts: 135
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I say 50 because the stock market sure doesn't like it
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TRYING TO GET ENOUGH MONEY TO RETIRE HOPEFULLY SOONER THAN LATER
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03-09-2023, 08:17 PM
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#18
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: NC
Posts: 568
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50 bp for me.
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03-09-2023, 08:36 PM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 3,507
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider
I will tell you if you win. .75bp right?
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.75bp if the job report is strong and if the inflation report is showing no lessening.
If these two things are unremarkable then .50bp.
__________________
Age is a very high price to pay for maturity.
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03-09-2023, 08:39 PM
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#20
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 622
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I vote rate reduction because I believe inflation is transitory. Powell said so himself. Never bet against the Fed.
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