Market Opinions.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CybrMike Looks like the global market is down 3%+ as well. Should be an interesting day tomorrow (later today I guess).

As in the supposed old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times!"? I hope not!

[unclemick]

107 heat index predicted for Kansas City today - a great day to be inside with the A/C pontificating about the market!

Soooo - how far will it drop and what are the mad money bargins. We () all have our 'real money' in balanced indices so market adjustments are made automatically - without emotion - right

heh heh heh - even with iced tea and a hat - the lawn can grow another day.

[al_bundy]

what happens after 3pm is most important

bull markets are strong later in the day and bear markets/corrections are weak late in the day. we are also still above the lows of last week on all the indices

[al_bundy]

dow and NYSE composite are now below the lows, time to see what happens next

[Running_Man]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CybrMike I for one gambled $5K on some S&P calls right before market close. Hopefully tomorrow it goes up some so I can look smart

7-out oops the 3 turned at the last minute 8 the hard way .... pay the man!!!

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I think we've got another leg down, but I bought a little this morning. Not a significant chunk. Re-established a position in vanguard REIT. I still dont think its a bargain, but its taken a little beating. I'll double or triple those holdings if it breaks 20.

Picked up a little more small cap value.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man 7-out oops the 3 turned at the last minute 8 the hard way .... pay the man!!!

[CCdaCE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords I think it did that last week... ... which I did last week, which is why I hope that was the bottom.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCdaCE I saw that. Nice timing hopefully. I just think the volatility lately will smack it once again. But, it's just gut feeling. I'm probably wrong. I realize I'm arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. -CC

Ahh, and then the Fed comes along, injects cash, there's rumblings of a rate cut, and so my theory gets blown out of the water.

All this after the Fed played hard-ass at their last meeting. Apparently Kramer got to Bernanke.

-CC

[unclemick]

Just think - pain in the ass - record/cost basis wise at tax time those DRIP plans in the old metal file cabinet may be - when you DCA and reinvest divy's:

The bottom's in there somewhere - is, was, maybe!

heh heh heh -

[al_bundy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCdaCE Ahh, and then the Fed comes along, injects cash, there's rumblings of a rate cut, and so my theory gets blown out of the water. All this after the Fed played hard-ass at their last meeting. Apparently Kramer got to Bernanke. -CC

there was a PPT article at Safehaven yesterday that said that ever since Paulson came to Treasury there hasn't been a 10% correction in the SP500.

Only thing I want to know is where was the PPT 2000 - 2003. This is probably different since there is a risk that a few big institutions could have gone out of business and caused a bigger panic.

Word is the Fed bought up a bunch of the junk mortgages that wall street was stuck with. Say the central banks buy up $300 billion of worthless mortgages? they can't do it forever since originations are going to be down due to higher lending standards and foreclosures will probably still rise

Check out the CNBC video section for the first 20 minutes of Kudlow and Company. 3 former Fed governors talk about what the Fed did today. they didn't buy any mortgages, just gave out loans and took Fannie/Freddie loans as collateral. and the loans were at 6.25% which is 100bps over the Fed funds rate.

i have to read up this weekend, but supposedly the Fed is trying to make Treasuries a bad investment to keep liquidity in the marketplace and prevent deflation. they aren't bailing anyone out, just preventing a crisis where institutions can't make payments to each other and a real crisis ensues

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCdaCE Ahh, and then the Fed comes along, injects cash, there's rumblings of a rate cut, and so my theory gets blown out of the water. All this after the Fed played hard-ass at their last meeting. Apparently Kramer got to Bernanke. -CC

I think it was the prospect of a failing financial system that got to the fed. What's the last time you saw Fed funds spike 75BP? After 9/11.

[barbarus]

That global liquidity injection today felt G O O D.
But, I'm gonna need another one real soon. And a little more next time too!
And while you're at it, I don't think you had better plan on stopping for a while.
A long while.

But then again (like Pooh), Barbarus is a Bear of Very Little Brain.

[al_bundy]

if you think the homebuilders can't drop any lower, thank Beazer

[barbarus]

Is it Kosher to mention other blogs on ERF?

[Eagle43]

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/11/bu...html?th&emc=th
Well, here's the NYTimes take on some of this.

Quote: A common pattern has been a surge in trading late in the afternoon, around 3 p.m., that has often sent stocks higher, as it did yesterday — though on some days, like Thursday, the move has been just as sharp on the downside.
Richard X. Bove, an analyst at Punk Ziegel & Company, noted the trend in a recent note to investors and suggested that the reason was strong buying from portfolios that use computer models to buy and sell quickly, a practice known as program trading, or a foreign source like the investment arm of the Chinese government.
“We are talking about such a sizable amount of buying and volume goes up and stocks react strongly one way or the other,” Mr. Bove said. “What I have trouble with is trying to figure out where it’s coming from.”
But he acknowledges that the pattern will probably not last long, because as sophisticated traders figure it out they will jump in on the other side to profit from the trades.
....yada....and...
But investors put $36.2 billion into money market accounts, the largest weekly inflow this year. Investors often put cash into money market funds, which earn more than savings accounts, that they eventually plan to invest in the market. Unquote.

We knew all this, of course. Sooner or later, that 36 billion will come back to the market. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of . . . .

Because of my age, I have 50% of the loot in bonds and cash. I'm still sleeping fine; so far.

[CCdaCE]

You're absolutely right brewer. I forgot my sarcasm smiley.

Quote:

That hasn't happened yet, but if rumors surfaced of a coming emergency meeting by the Fed to cut rates, that would be a sign of a bottom," says Bekoff, though he adds, "if they actually do cut that would have the negative connotation the problems are a lot more serious.

Quote:

The December 2008 Fed Funds futures rallied 17 basis points Thursday meaning the money market is pricing in a half-point of rate cuts in 2008. Bekoff says, "clearly that’s a whipsaw reaction to the credit situation. Is it just a knee jerk, or something more sinister? We just don't know yet".

But, that was back on 6/27.

This is all crystal ball gazing, to me, at this point. But it's interesting entertainment. Better than Paris and Britney.

-CC

[al_bundy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eagle43 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/11/bu...html?th&emc=th Well, here's the NYTimes take on some of this. Quote: A common pattern has been a surge in trading late in the afternoon, around 3 p.m., that has often sent stocks higher, as it did yesterday — though on some days, like Thursday, the move has been just as sharp on the downside. Richard X. Bove, an analyst at Punk Ziegel & Company, noted the trend in a recent note to investors and suggested that the reason was strong buying from portfolios that use computer models to buy and sell quickly, a practice known as program trading, or a foreign source like the investment arm of the Chinese government. “We are talking about such a sizable amount of buying and volume goes up and stocks react strongly one way or the other,” Mr. Bove said. “What I have trouble with is trying to figure out where it’s coming from.” But he acknowledges that the pattern will probably not last long, because as sophisticated traders figure it out they will jump in on the other side to profit from the trades. ....yada....and... But investors put $36.2 billion into money market accounts, the largest weekly inflow this year. Investors often put cash into money market funds, which earn more than savings accounts, that they eventually plan to invest in the market. Unquote. We knew all this, of course. Sooner or later, that 36 billion will come back to the market. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of . . . . Because of my age, I have 50% of the loot in bonds and cash. I'm still sleeping fine; so far.

news.google.com

do a search for quant and it will come back with a lot nice articles about program trading