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08-07-2007, 06:37 PM
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#61
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
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Ahh Boglehead, owninig the market is what an investor should aim to do -- Total Market Index Fund. He suggests we are often fooled by style/size performance. At least that is my interpretation of his recent interviews.
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08-07-2007, 07:06 PM
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#62
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Nah, more like *****, only with a 90% TIP portfolio, instead of 100%...
A little whacky, even for me.
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Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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08-07-2007, 07:14 PM
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#63
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 567
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wildcat
Ahh Boglehead, owninig the market is what an investor should aim to do -- Total Market Index Fund. He suggests we are often fooled by style/size performance. At least that is my interpretation of his recent interviews.
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Disclaimer, I haven't read his book. But, he strikes me as a permabear that makes other bears look absolutely bullish.
As way of example. From a probability standpoint, there's no indicator that the US couldn't switch to a fascist regime and flip to the Euro. So, plan your portfolioto adequately protect against a potential black swan event like that.
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08-07-2007, 07:17 PM
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#64
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Webzter
Disclaimer, I haven't read his book. But, he strikes me as a permabear that makes other bears look absolutely bullish.
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This isn't a disclaimer; it's a disqualification.
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"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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08-07-2007, 07:24 PM
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#65
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 567
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I've read enough about him to feel that I can relegate said book to the bottom of the pile.
edit: Point taken though
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08-07-2007, 08:06 PM
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#66
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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This book has been marketed as an investment book but that is not honest marketing. On Consuelo's show she introduced him as a former options trader, so I guess he has gone out of the investment management business altogether. It must have been hard to keep clients bumping along at close to a zero return.
The book is really about the limits of knowledge, or what we call knowledge. For me, it was interesting purely in that way. Yet I do think that there may be cautions contained in his evidence that apply to retirement investing.
Ha
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"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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08-07-2007, 08:24 PM
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#67
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
even the market is playing off oil prices lately since that is a big inflation driver
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I would say high oil prices while inflationary in the transportation area are non inflationary for everything else as the consumer has less to spend. When you put $75 in your tank that's $75 less for Wal-Mart. High oil prices are like a tax on the consumer and tend to slow the economy.
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“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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08-07-2007, 08:52 PM
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#68
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Basically his theory is to keep a large chunk of your portfolio in a stable bond base and shoot for the moon with 10-30% of high risk/reward products.
Pretty much what I was doing with my original single guys ER portfolio...two thirds of it in Wellesley and the other third in my IRA in REITS, emerging markets, small cap value and Energy.
The downside is that you pretty much need a shitload of money to consider such a strategy...which isnt a big problem for NT.
The strategy did more or less work for me. All my "rockets" flew to the moon and when I couldnt explain the valuations anymore I dumped them. Then I got married. Thats when it turned weird...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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08-08-2007, 02:57 AM
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#69
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
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The market is volatile. I was looking at market volume in the S&P 500. I has experienced a significant rise. This goes along with the volatility... but the last time we had a spike was at the end of the last Bull.
I know there are other considerations. But the market is looking increasingly nervous.
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08-08-2007, 05:54 AM
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#70
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bikerdude
I would say high oil prices while inflationary in the transportation area are non inflationary for everything else as the consumer has less to spend. When you put $75 in your tank that's $75 less for Wal-Mart. High oil prices are like a tax on the consumer and tend to slow the economy.
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Don't they put food in that category as well, anything with milk or corn
these days is up. And unlike driving, its tough to eat less (ok, maybe for
some that would be a good thing ).
TJ
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08-08-2007, 06:00 AM
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#71
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
The market is volatile. I was looking at market volume in the S&P 500. I has experienced a significant rise. This goes along with the volatility... but the last time we had a spike was at the end of the last Bull.
I know there are other considerations. But the market is looking increasingly nervous.
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Could it be part of Hedge Fund trading? They do account for A LOT of volume and they are a lot bigger these days.
teejayvans:
Quote:
Don't they put food in that category as well, anything with milk or corn
these days is up.
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Yeah, corn is up huge and it is having some far reaching effects on what we consume. Milk is up because of corn right? Spikes in cattle feed?
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
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08-08-2007, 08:47 AM
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#72
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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Quote:
Good idea, that should teach the cows to eat less corn.
__________________
Al
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08-08-2007, 09:12 AM
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#73
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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i looked back on 2004, 2005 and 2006 and each year was volatile with at least 2 10% to 15% drops or more in the indexes even if there was a gain for the year. starting from last year it seems like a line up with smaller corrections. almost like people expect these returns
looks like homebuilders and financials are on fire. my guess is everyone thinks there is a rate cut in october and that the Fed is going to avoid a crisis and that there is going to be a soft to medium landing for housing and the financials. CNBC is also saying that the banks are thought to have less exposure than first thought.
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08-08-2007, 09:27 AM
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#74
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,691
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speaking of market opinions :
YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.
the highlights:
100% chance of recession, further...
100% chance of depression.
total economic collapse....gold above 1000, oil above 100, Dow
below 10000...
Don't say I didn't warn you ;-)
TJ
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08-08-2007, 10:15 AM
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#75
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
... there is going to be a soft to medium landing for housing and the financials. CNBC is also saying that the banks are thought to have less exposure than first thought.
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The thing to watch out for is hedge funds and any fund holding MBSs or CDOs, It is those derivative instruments that have protected the banks from even more exposure.
I wonder what a medium landing for housing would look like? I have this image of a plane coming in for a medium hard crash landing...
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For the fun of it...Keith
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08-08-2007, 06:08 PM
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#76
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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too much rah rah rah on cnbc today
in past rallies everything was doom and gloom and all the guests would say anything to keep you from buying stocks until a 15% gain when they would suddenly tell everyone to buy stocks. today was like a cheerleading squad and reminds me of late 2000
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08-09-2007, 05:12 AM
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#77
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
too much rah rah rah on cnbc today
in past rallies everything was doom and gloom and all the guests would say anything to keep you from buying stocks until a 15% gain when they would suddenly tell everyone to buy stocks. today was like a cheerleading squad and reminds me of late 2000
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So now we have the CNBC indicator?
I think they ran out of doom and gloom guests after last week.
TJ
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08-09-2007, 09:39 AM
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#78
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 944
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My guess is that the market will go down today - up tomarrow - down early next week - up late next week - thats why I am looking at the market alot less these days.
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Freed at 49. You only live once - live it
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08-09-2007, 12:39 PM
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#79
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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looks like glimmer of hope is gone
CNBC has been a great indicator since late 2000 when people were saying to buy Cisco because it was selling for $60 down from $100
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08-09-2007, 02:30 PM
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#80
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
looks like glimmer of hope is gone
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??
That tinfoil helmet getting too tight?
Don't confuse liquidity issues with fundamental problems. There is a lot of selling of quite sound companies and bonds based on certain investors' need for liquidity (hedge funds that have to meet redemptions), amplified by retail boobs who get caught up in CNBC or selling because prices are down.
You really think a AAA-rated morgage bond backed by prime loans that are performing has significant credit risk? Silly. How about selling stuff like EGLE? They indicated on the earnings call that within half an hour of putting out a press release that stated the have options to build several new ships they had a number of calls and emails asking if they would consider leasing or selling the ships at any price.
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Ezekiel 23:20
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