Market pointing to the Nov low and no one is jumping out the window!

[haha]

I was telling some others I'm experiencing some survivor guilt. DW and I are buying as much stock as we can every month (which will probably only be $30k this year) while continuing to pay extra on the house. For us, in our early 30's, this downturn couldn't be better timed as we finally have the income to "buy in". But I consider many here as friends and hate to see the suffering.

Laurence, you say that so nicely and sincerely that I don't even get mad at you.

Ha

 

[Moemg]

As I was staring at my windows deciding if I should jump I noticed they really need to be washed .

 

[Spanky]

As I was staring at my windows deciding if I should jump I noticed they really need to be washed .

Well, are they clean now?

 

[Moemg]

Well, are they clean now?

No , today I watched the inauguration maybe tomorrow ! I have three stories of windows in the front of my house so cleaning them is a major job .

 

[samclem]

Not a garden variety panic, and although intervention has been huge I believe that much of it has been corrupt and wrong headed. It has certainly not been effective.

Unfortunately, we don't know that the bailout hasn't been effective. We can't know just how bad the market and our financial system would have been without the giveaway. Those who think it was a good idea probably think it was just too little, or not done in some particular way that they would favor, and there are already calls for much more of the same. Yep, with just more money everything will be fine. It's only money--our money.

 

[Moemg]

My sentiments exactly. DW was layed off today, but we'll be OK. Looking forward to the new economic expansion, but not expecting it soon. 2010?

Sorry to hear but doesn't your wife have that incredible sewing ability ? Maybe she could do that part time while looking for a new job . I love personalized purses .

 

[audreyh1]

I've been too busy working on my alligator video to panic!

I rebalanced on 1/15. That was way better than rebalancing on 1/2 or 1/3, but another big spiral down right afterwards will be disappointing.

Unless we have a huge rally (causing a "good" rebalance!) I will be sitting on my hands for the rest of the year. I'm already down to my minimal years worth of cash + bonds, so I can't buy anymore dips in equities this year. In a way this is quite liberating as I can go off and do other things and not pay attention to how bad the market gets. Maybe by Jan of 2009 things will have settled down. We can only hope.

Midpack - bummer about the wife's layoff!

Audrey

 

[clifp]

I have to say today's plunge really was a shock. I thought with all of the goodwill from the Obama inauguration, plus nice feel good stories like the miracle on the Hudson, that investors would be a little less fearful. I guess not.


I have gone through Plans A-G and I am starting to run out of letters in the alphabet. Maybe Audrey's plan just forget the market this year is starting to look better.

"De Nile is not just a river in Africa it is also coping strategy."

 

[haha]

I have to say today's plunge really was a shock. I thought with all of the goodwill from the Obama inauguration..

Maybe you have something here...

Ha

 

[NW-Bound]

BTW, I think I made a fundamental error earlier this fall by assuming that this situation was a garden variety panic, and that governmental intervention would be huge and effective.
...

I remember a past poll about how we would compare the current economic condition to the dotcom bust and 9/11 period. I was among the minority to vote for "about the same".

While it remains true up to this point that my financial situation is better than it was back then (knock on wood), I will admit that I was wrong. This financial crisis reaches much deeper than the last bear market. Banks around the world are having problems. There are talks of stimulus and bailouts in France, England, Germany, Singapore, etc... You name it.

I think people may slowly realize that the current financial crisis is not caused by a single person (now a former president, who of course could be blamed for other bad policies), hence a presidency change will not bring immediate relief.

I have been preparing myself to hunker down for a few lean years. I will survive this.

 

[W2R]

I'm already down to my minimal years worth of cash + bonds, so I can't buy anymore dips in equities this year.

I am feeling that way, too. As of this morning my portfolio is unbalanced by 3% (instead of 45:55, it is now 41.8:58.2). I am thinking about rebalancing, but I don't want my cash to go much below where it is now. Besides, who knows? Yesterday's drop might only last a day or two. If the Dow stays below 8000 for a couple of months, then maybe I might rebalance.

I have to say today's plunge really was a shock. I thought with all of the goodwill from the Obama inauguration, plus nice feel good stories like the miracle on the Hudson, that investors would be a little less fearful. I guess not.

I was shocked, too. I was SO SURE that the market would soar and I am so perplexed.

I have been preparing myself to hunker down for a few lean years. I will survive this.

We all will, and once we have we will have stories to tell our grandchildren - - just like the stories many of us heard about the Great Depression from our parents or grandparents. And they will roll their eyes just like many of us did when hearing those stories many years ago.

 

[Architect]

The bad news is stocks might just be getting close to long term trend

S&P Regression to Trend | The Big Picture

They're far away from a bear market bottom in the traditional sense. Unfortunately stocks have been too expensive for a decade or more.

 

[ziggy29]

This market is starting to look like late September and October again with significant rallies being sold off sharply...

I'm done "averaging down" and "rebalancing" for the foreseeable future.

 

[Bestwifeever]

The bad news is stocks might just be getting close to long term trend

S&P Regression to Trend | The Big Picture

They're far away from a bear market bottom in the traditional sense. Unfortunately stocks have been too expensive for a decade or more.

I feel like everything has been too expensive for a decade or more.

 

[ziggy29]

I feel like everything has been too expensive for a decade or more.

And the problem is, it's only our assets that are correcting in price, not expenses (other than gas prices)...

 

[tuixiu]

What sucks is the rebalance on schedule at start of new year (wouldn't want to time the market) which of course was a fairly significant false hop up.

Bleh.

 

[NW-Bound]

DW was layed off today, but we'll be OK.

Sorry to hear this. It appears your wife already sensed that it was coming, so you have had some mental preparation. Best wishes to you.

 

[TromboneAl]

I rebalanced on 1/15. That was way better than rebalancing on 1/2 or 1/3

Which is when I did it.

 

[NW-Bound]

...
Tomorrow I will buy. Perhaps 1% worth.

I bought some more today (about 1% of portfolio).

Hey, I am a man of my words. Bought roughly 1% worth, sprinkled among PFF, AGU, FTK, POT, and BRK/B.

So far so good. Buy, buy, buy. Even when you are in tears.

As a diversified stock holder, what I have found being a somewhat active investor (but no daytrader) is that what you buy is not as important as when you buy. Buy, buy, buy. Stock allocation: 49% now.

 

[Midpack]

Sorry to hear this. It appears your wife already sensed that it was coming, so you have had some mental preparation. Best wishes to you.

Sorry to hear but doesn't your wife have that incredible sewing ability ? Maybe she could do that part time while looking for a new job . I love personalized purses .

I am so sorry to hear this! Glad you will be OK, but still, it probably isn't what you had hoped or planned.

Thank you all for your kind remarks. We had a whole bottle of wine last night (twice what we normally have). Not sure about the sewing, you must be thinking of someone else.

 

[audreyh1]

What sucks is the rebalance on schedule at start of new year (wouldn't want to time the market) which of course was a fairly significant false hop up.

Bleh.

rebalanced on 1/15. That was way better than rebalancing on 1/2 or 1/3

Which is when I did it.

I've settled on January 15 as my official rebalance date for several reasons. One is that there often seems to be a late Dec and early Jan run-up. This may be due to end-of-year window dressing, but perhaps is even more influenced by the start of year money coming into the market.

Jan 15 is a more practical date for me because it takes a few days into Jan to get my final fund distributions reported, and then I have to calculate estimated taxes. By Jan 15 I know approx the taxes owed by my retirement fund, and since this comes out of cash, it impacts the fund rebalancing.

Over the past few years it always seemed that if I reinvested in early Jan, the market would immediately sell off, but if I waited until Jan 15, there would be a big Jan rally. But not this year! So now I'm sticking with Jan 15 and letting it average out. (But I still suspect over time Jan 15 is better because of the first-of-year market shenanigans).

Audrey

 

[Moemg]

Thank you all for your kind remarks. We had a whole bottle of wine last night (twice what we normally have). Not sure about the sewing, you must be thinking of someone else.

Oops that was Marquette ! I'm still wishing you well !

 

[NW-Bound]

Stock allocation: 49% now.

At market close today, my equity portion went up roughly 4%. That brings up the AA to 50/50!

Think about that a bit. Around 50/50 AA, a 4% price move of equities changes the AA by 1%.

The thing keeps balancing itself. Do I buy more tomorrow? Should I?

Ah, if it were so easy, everybody would be rich.

But I don't need to be rich. I just want enough to stay FIRE'd.

 

[MichaelB]

And the problem is, it's only our assets that are correcting in price, not expenses (other than gas prices)...

Haven't you heard about deflation? Everything will get cheaper, so you will be just as well off as before. Stocks and housing are leading the way - these things always have leading sectors Just be patient - the other stuff will catch up.

 

[TromboneAl]

Around 50/50 AA, a 4% price move of equities changes the AA by 1%.

Well, it depends on what the bond portion does. But if the bonds don't change in value, then a 4% equity increase would change your allocation from 50/50 to 51.9%. Did I get that right?