Market Pummelling

[Spanky]

Sounds like a deal buying SHRC at $21.

 

[Marshac]

Ok, since I want to be in the flooz running, i'll cast my bet-

I'm going to project the market at 8100 sometime in 2005.

If you're curious, here's why I chose that number. I assumed that stocks were fairly valued at the beginning of 2003, figured out (approx) how much the market rose until 2005, and then factored in the declining value of the USD during that same period. I then discounted for inflation during those periods and projected through the rest of 2005 and came up with 8100.

Why did I start at 2003? It's when the market really started to move... and is also about the same time credit was becoming fairly cheap (1.25% fed rate). The cheapest money came during 12/03-Q1 2004 (.98% fed rate) which is also about the time the market peaked. As you can probably guess, my underlying hypothesis is that cheap credit gave investors additional leverage which propped up the market during this latest run, effectively mitigating the effects of the declining USD.

You may totally disagree with my thinking, but that's my number  

 

[Michael]

1. When the red will end (as in a date)?
2. Where will it end (9500, etc)?

Bad summer, a rally starting in the fall of 2005, then another bad summer in 2006.

In late October 2006 it starts ramping up for the next Presidential election in 2007 and 2008.

 

[dm]

I'm sorry. I once again added to my stock portfolio on Monday. The market alway's tanks after I invest. I first started investing in 87 and we know what happened then. I don't know why I keep plugging along. So far it has always come back and every time we have these drops there is someone saying that we are in for a long term drop. I survived the drop in 2000-2002 and Im sure I'll make it through whatever happens next. If it were to drop another 20% I wouldn't like it, but it wouldn't be the end of the world.

Time's like these are good learning experiences. I was actually thinking about changing my asset allocations in 99 because I was only earning a paultry 5-6% in fixed income. Then 2000 reminded me why asset allocation is important.

I would prefer fewer learning experiences though. As I get older my investments definatly get more conservative.

 

[haha]

The great bull market ended only after everyone including your barber "knew" that stocks were the best thing since sliced bread.
This bear will end after everyone is equally sickened and convinced of the opposite view.
My guess is we're not even close yet.

Rok, this is my view also. it could be partly because I started investing in 73-74, when pessimism ruled. I keep waiting for a return of those days when the sun never did quite get up, when half of the cars were stalled on I5 'cause they were out of gas, and 80% of the former machinists at Boeing were tending bar.

I's like my wife used to say, "You think I'm angry, I'll show you angry!" And by golly, she did. Same with the market. Right now it's just a porcupine twitching its tail, just daring us to take a bite.

Admittedly it is taking its own sweet time to get around to whacking us, and I suppose it might not.

Still, whatever bets I place are on don't pass. (With the exception of energy.)

Mikey

 

[ronin]

I'd like the return of volatility if I was a trader. Only a whiff of fear and too much panic buying today to really expect that the weaklings have been finally flushed out. Long term horizon, so it's mostly interesting to observe.

 

[Cut-Throat]

 Long term horizon, so it's mostly interesting to observe.

I don't even observe anymore. I have too many hobbies and interests.

 

[laurence]

Ok, since I want to be in the flooz running, i'll cast my bet-

I'm going to project the market at 8100 sometime in 2005.

If you're curious, here's why I chose that number. I assumed that stocks were fairly valued at the beginning of 2003, figured out (approx) how much the market rose until 2005, and then factored in the declining value of the USD during that same period. I then discounted for inflation during those periods and projected through the rest of 2005 and came up with 8100.

Why did I start at 2003? It's when the market really started to move... and is also about the same time credit was becoming fairly cheap (1.25% fed rate). The cheapest money came during 12/03-Q1 2004 (.98% fed rate) which is also about the time the market peaked. As you can probably guess, my underlying hypothesis is that cheap credit gave investors additional leverage which propped up the market during this latest run, effectively mitigating the effects of the declining USD.

You may totally disagree with my thinking, but that's my number

I'll bite, March Madness is over. I think we'll hit a low of Dow ~9000 in Feb/March of 2006, but it won't rocket up much from there for a while.

 

[BUM]

Hey why not get a pool started. Winner gets an all expenses paid fishing trip with C-T.

I say the market bounces between 10,300 and 10,600 for the next few months.

What say you?

 

[charlie]

I am afraid I could not survive a fishing trip with CT.
He would run my ragged old neo-con ass in the ground.


Cheers,

Charlie

 

[Marshac]

He would run my ragged old neo-con ass in the ground.

I didn't know TH swung that way


sorry.... low hanging fruit....

 

[Mr._johngalt]

I am confused. Are you calling th a "fruit" ?

JG

 

[laurence]

I'm up for a pool, but we need more fixed values and less variables! I say we pick a fixed date in the future and have everyone pick a DOW number for that date. Closest to wins the prize! I believe Marshac was offering some flooz, I'm open to to an ante system. Anyone got a date in mind? Harmless diversion.

 

[BUM]

I'm up for a pool, but we need more fixed values and less variables! I say we pick a fixed date in the future and have everyone pick a DOW number for that date. Closest to wins the prize! I believe Marshac was offering some flooz, I'm open to to an ante system. Anyone got a date in mind? Harmless diversion.

How about Black Friday wasent that October something?

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I am confused. Are you calling th a "fruit" ?

JG

Ed?



I dont know why I got dragged into this, it was C-T that was the original topic of conversation.

Did you guys know a tomato is a fruit?

 

[soupcxan]

I track my net worth on a monthly basis and what annoys me the most is that a lot of my monthly contributions have been offset by market declines in the first few months of 2005.

Sometimes I think I'm just too much of a control freak to suffer the whims of the market. At least with bonds, I can understand that if rates go up, bonds go down...seems a whole lot more rational than the volatility in equities that comes from nowhere.

 

[Cut-Throat]

I track my net worth on a monthly basis and what annoys me the most is that a lot of my monthly contributions have been offset by market declines in the first few months of 2005. Everything else being equal, my NW should be increase by ~$2500 per month...but lately it's been more like $1500. Probably not much to most of the people here but I hate to see $1000 of my after tax money dissappear based on "expectations." Especially troublesome given that most earnings reports so far have been positive (except IBM).

Sometimes I think I'm just too much of a control freak to suffer the whims of the market. At least with bonds, I can understand that if rates go up, bonds go down...seems a whole lot more rational than the volatility in equities that comes from nowhere.

If you are still working and contibuting, this is exactly what you want. You are buying stock at cheaper prices. - So ideally, you want to invest in a bear market and retire in a Bull market. Read the 12 steps to investment peace that is on this page of the forum.

 

[unclemick]

To echo Cut-Throat:

There's this guy- Ben Graham who wrote about Mr Market way back when - 'The Investor and Market Fluctuations', chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor. Your library may have one of the five versions issued between 1949 and 1973. Although I understand a Jason Zweig edited version is now out.

And then - there's my sweetie, the Norwegian widow, who like 'Your Money Or Your Life,' looks at the 'income line'.

When the market drops - you are buying a $ of income at a cheaper price.

DOW 5000 here we come. Yeah!

 

[laurence]

So let's say last day in October, this year as our date, I'm picking 9800 for the Dow at that point (from there, I think it will hold really until the end of the year and then drop come January).

Soupcxan, I feel your pain, we upped our investment contributions to ~3500 a month between 401(k)'s, employer matching, and Roth IRA this year, and we are sailing into the wind with an opposing current. But hey, it's a fire sale, right?

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

For the 95th time in an unending series, the stock market is a funny thing, when stuff goes on sale, people run away. When stuff goes on fire sale, people jump out of windows.
:-/

 

[laurence]

Hey, so long as they don't land on me on their way down!

DCA, all the way, I want the bull market to start about 5 years before I retire and last twenty!

 

[Cut-Throat]

When the market drops - you are buying a $ of income at a cheaper price.

DOW 5000 here we come. Yeah!

Ah, Unclemick - we're not supposed to be excited about this sort of thing. We're already retired!

 

[Mr._johngalt]

If you guys really get up a pool on how low the DOW
will go.....................I suggest you call it
"The Dead Pool"

JG