Market Timing Schmarket Timing

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! Of course, almost nobody on this forum exhibits a behavior gap.

+1

No one here would ever behave like this guy...

[eta2020]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! I do believe that investor behavior causes some of them to not do as well as they could. But also paying fees to advisors causes them to not do as well as they could. It has been shown that advisors also suffer from the behavior gap just as their clients do.

For some people advisors are there to protect investor from himself/herself.
Usually from panicking which results in sell low.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! ... Does The DALBAR Study Grossly Overstate The Behavior Gap? (Guest Post) | Kitces.com DALBAR Study Overstates Investors’ Bad Timing...

These articles have a valid point questioning the way investor returns are calculated. I wonder if there has been any rebuttal.

[eta2020]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound These articles have a valid point questioning the way investor returns are calculated. I wonder if there has been any rebuttal.

DALBAR is just one of many many different studies that tell us same thing.

[Mulligan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo +1 No one here would ever behave like this guy...

I always love this chart. It reinforces to me my investing thoughts are neither original or successful.


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[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by eta2020 DALBAR is just one of many many different studies that tell us same thing.

We discussed this question earlier on another thread recently, but I do not remember how we left it.

Well, for every investor that sells low, there's another that successfully buys low. Who's the latter? Any study that unearths them?

[sengsational]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Well, for every investor that sells low, there's another that successfully buys low. Who's the latter? Any study that unearths them?

Probably the dollar cost averager or the rebalancer. Too boring to write an article about.

[eta2020]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound We discussed this question earlier on another thread recently, but I do not remember how we left it. Well, for every investor that sells low, there's another that successfully buys low. Who's the latter? Any study that unearths them?

I agree. I wonder how much money is made by computer trading systems ran by people like Goldman. Look for example on VXUS and number of large buy and sell positions few cents above and below current market price.

If you are fool and buy those less liquid ETFs at market price they will make money on you.

I am not expert here and I don't know much about it but all here how those trading systems make money at our expense..... Which is another reason why I do NOT trade.

[38Chevy454]

A small blip is nothing to get concerned about. I view this as buying opportunity

Why is it that human psychology with most things is buy low and sell high, but with equities it seems to be reversed? People want to buy when market is up and pay high, but then panic and sell low

As many have stated, stay the course, keep your asset allocation where you are comfortable and don't try to time market. Now go enjoy retirement or planning for retirement if you are not there yet - without getting worried over a short-term market reaction.

[BTravlin]

Not market timing but I did get lucky and replenish my cash position close to the peak.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 38Chevy454 A small blip is nothing to get concerned about. I view this as buying opportunity

Eh, the above statement apparently conflicts with the following.

Quote:

... don't try to time market...

Heck, I want to time the market!

I want to buy from the people who sell low.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BTravlin Not market timing but I did get lucky and replenish my cash position close to the peak.

I don't care if people call me a dirty market timer or a contrarian or a rebalancer. Buy low/sell high makes me money, and I want to be more successful at it.

However, there's risk of being wrong so I only do a little bit at a time. Never 100% in cash nor 100% in stock, so my trades only help a bit, but it makes me feel like I am so smart when I make that little bit extra.

[robnplunder]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound However, there's risk of being wrong so I only do a little bit at a time. Never 100% in cash nor 100% in stock, so my trades only help a bit, but it makes me feel like I am so smart when I make that little bit extra.

+1.

When RE, I am counting on doing a bit of trading with "a little bit" of my portfolio to pass the time. Not a lot, just to hedge against market a bit and to "feel like I am" a bit smart.

[teejayevans]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BTravlin Not market timing but I did get lucky and replenish my cash position close to the peak.

Ditto, but I call that "rebalancing"
No way would I go all in.

[gcgang]

If the markets go up, and you now have enough assets to meet your financial goals, selling to reduce equities/risk is not market timing, IMHO, it's tailoring your investments to your own financial situation.

I was pretty much always 100% equities during my accumulation phase. Now, it's a different story.

However, like many previous posts, I'm reluctant to sell aggressively because I hate to pay the capital gains taxes. I probably should overcome this hangup and pay some taxes, rather than endure the pain of watching my portfolio evaporate during the next bear market.

The problem is, what to do with the funds generated. 1% CDs and money markets are sure (small) losers.


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[Donzo]

In the past I tried to time the market and had flat results at best, and it was stressful for me. So now i keep at least one year in cash and maintain an approximate 50/50 allocation. I am comfy with this at this point. I was down .86% yesterday, I like that better than -2%! but of course were the market up 2% I would not enjoy as much growth as well as not having as much loss.

[hakuna matata]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BTravlin Not market timing but I did get lucky and replenish my cash position close to the peak.

Did something similar. Finally decided to flip my old 401k to an IRA, so did all the paperwork and the cut a check for me on Wednesday! So now just need to do the IRA. But I feel I got lucky as I sold high and will buy low if things stay like this until I get the check. Could make some nice advances I think.

[Lsbcal]

For all of July the SP500 was down -1.4%. The sky is not falling ... yet.

POP QUIZ: What was the previous losing month before July?
What happened after that?

No fair looking this up . Put your hand over the part below if you really want to guess. Answer is below if you are curious.





-----------------------
Answer: January 2014 the SP500 was down -3.5%.
Then we had:
Feb +4.6%
Mar +0.8%
Apr +0.7%
May +2.3%
June +2.1%

[BTravlin]

Quote:

Originally Posted by teejayevans Ditto, but I call that "rebalancing" No way would I go all in.

I wish it was available for re-balancing but this is the spending kind of cash.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BTravlin I wish it was available for re-balancing but this is the spending kind of cash.

Eh, if one feels lucky he can go on margin. A true market timer would not let shortage of cash keep him from trading. Just sayin'...