market to crash again, down by 35% (S&P 600) by year end, Gary Schilling

Do you think he is right?

  • Yes

    Votes: 25 19.4%

  • No

    Votes: 104 80.6%
  • Total voters
    129
S&P500: up 0.3%

My individual stock portion: up 0.5%

My MF portion: up 0.3%

Buy or sell? No. I am holding.
 
I got greedy and it burnt me...

DW's company stock has been on fire lately so we decided to sell some and lock in the gains. The stock was trading at $7.92 and had been on an up trend all morning, so I placed a limit order at $8. When the stock price hit $7.98 it brutaly turned around to end the day below $7.5... Trying to make a few extra dollars ended up costing thousands. Dumb. :mad:
 
Who's to say tomorrow you won't feel like a genius when it surges to $8.50?
 
Ah! That's another confirmation of investor's "risk averse" behavior. ;)

When he loses a buck, it hurts like disembowelment. Yet, when he makes a buck, he doesn't feel the equivalence of joy. :D
 
At $8.75 I may not feel like a genius, but I might start to feel a bit smug...;)
 
FIREdreamer said:
I got greedy and it burnt me...

DW's company stock has been on fire lately so we decided to sell some and lock in the gains. The stock was trading at $7.92 and had been on an up trend all morning, so I placed a limit order at $8. When the stock price hit $7.98 it brutaly turned around to end the day below $7.5... Trying to make a few extra dollars ended up costing thousands. Dumb. :mad:
Click to expand...

Limit and stop orders are deadly. A few years ago, I had over a thousand shares of a well-known GPS developer's stock. It had risen about 300% in the two years I had it. We went on a ten day cruise in Europe so I placed a stop order to sell at about 30% below the current price as "armageddon insurance" because I didn't want watch the market while on vacation. I thought I was smart. Well, some institution apparently decided to unload a huge block and the price dropped like a rock on the opening, I got stopped out, and the next AM it rebounded 50% and was back to near its high again in a week or so. Though I made a good profit from my buy point, I "lost" about $30K relative to the rebound price. I was so clever I was stupid. I'll never put in an auto sell or buy order again.
 
DWPC said:
Limit and stop orders are deadly. ... We went on a ten day cruise in Europe so I placed a stop order to sell at about 30% below the current price as "armageddon insurance" because I didn't want watch the market while on vacation. ... I got stopped out, and the next AM it rebounded 50% and was back to near its high again in a week or so.

I'll never put in an auto sell or buy order again.
Click to expand...

Consider buying a PUT. You can totally protect your downside, and 30% below the current price would probably be pretty cheap. Yet, you still participate in the upside (minus the cost of the PUT).

Like any insurance, you feel like you "wasted" your money if you didn't need it, but I think it can be the best solution for a case like this. I've considered them when I want to hold a position through an earnings announcement or other reports that could swing the stock dramatically. Also, if I want to hold a stock a little longer to get Long Term Cap gains, you can use a PUT to protect you, so you don't end up giving your tax money back to the market.

I don't like stop-loss orders either. I think a limit buy can make sense at times.

-ERD50
 
I just love a guru who makes a headline grabbing prediction. Note especially the stupid precision of the forecast. When will they learn:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
I generally like Schilling and every once-in-awhile punch his name into the search column to see if he has come up with anything new lately. Totally disappointed in his prediction. Waaaay off the mark.
 
Bestwifeever said:
Personally I am waiting for the great beanie baby rebound....
Click to expand...

Noooo!!!!!!

Women found me in the back hallways everyday at the mall to ask if I had beanie babies on my truck that day. They would wait in their cars at the docks of stores for me. In NYC our semis were being hijacked for the beanie babies! It got so bad that Ty would split shipments between all the freight carriers and could no longer notify the stores who, how many or when they were arriving. Orchidflower - not to worry, they created a monster and were terrorized by it for a long time!

The market: seems okay to me. People are purchasing items [-]way too much[/-] the same as always and I know because I deliver a lot of those items. We may see a slow down (in the economy) when people crank up their 401k contributions again and they have less disposable income. The economy will look worse but stocks will rise is my guess.
 
I like the Calculated Risk blog, and they publish this chart every once in a while, so I figured that I would mirror it here. A little perspective doncha know?
four-bears-large.gif
 
Could y'all be a bit more specific on when the crash is coming? I have a few more covered calls I wouldn't mind selling.

M Paquette said:
What? ANOTHER apocalypse? Sheesh. I might have to rebalance my portfolio again.
Click to expand...
I try to limit my apocalypse rebalancing to no more than two per year...
 
I just voted in the poll. I was right ;) Sometimes I amaze myself :D
 
IndependentlyPoor said:
I like the Calculated Risk blog, and they publish this chart every once in a while, so I figured that I would mirror it here. A little perspective doncha know?
four-bears-large.gif
Click to expand...
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/40-year-and-80-year-market-cycles-49439.html

If you like technical analysis and a historical perspective you might like the above. It isn't for everyone.
We are in a secular bear market - started in 2000. Secular bear markets have lasted as long as 18years (?).
 
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